25 Harper St · Lake Mohegan, NY 10537

$149,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 712 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 15 Days on market

Built 1940 712 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.1/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.1/10.0
• 1% rule +6.6/10.0
• Schools +6.5/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Incredible Fixer-Upper! Welcome to Lake Community living! Charming and quaint - bring this pre-war property back to its pleasing, old-fashioned condition. Bring your tools and bring your favorite handy person who can fix anything! Don't wait - this desirable end-of-road gem, complete with two parking spots, won't last long.

Key facts

• Built 1940
• Listed 15 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Common parking
• Utilities: Sewer: Other; No listed utilities
• Home design: Single family residence
• Construction: Clapboard and frame construction
• Exterior features: Not waterfront; Measured living area

Interior

• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 4
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Wood heating; No cooling system
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom; No appliances included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $149k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $239 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $149k).
• Recommended offer: $147k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 3.1% in Lake Mohegan — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#417 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Putnam Valley Central School District (suburban): math 73% / reading 71% proficiency, ranked #91 of 590 in NY (top 15%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 12% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 31 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 142 units permitted in Putnam County in 2024 (75 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $16k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $15k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Putnam County population projected to shrink 3% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($147k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $35k; list at $149k implies a 326% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $146,765 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.22%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.87%
• DSCR: 1.31
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $309,008
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
25 Harper St	0.00mi	1/1.0	712 (0%)	0mo	$140,000	$197	100
4 Melnick Pl	0.21mi	2/1.0 (+1)	784 (+10%)	3mo	$340,000	$434	66
14 Pine St	0.38mi	2/1.0 (+1)	753 (+6%)	4mo	$292,000	$388	64
92 Walnut Rd	0.68mi	1/1.0	800 (+12%)	16mo	$375,000	$469	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 29.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.31×
• Total profit: $96,437
• Equity at exit: $134,231

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.4%
• Equity multiple: 7.52×
• Total profit: $272,207
• Equity at exit: $289,474

Cash invested: $41,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 10537

• Home prices YoY: 5.8%
• Active inventory: 31
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,728 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$781
• Tax from tax record: −$283 /mo · $3,393/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$363
• Net cashflow: $239

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,426

Max offer price $149,000

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $323	-5% $281	+0% $239	+5% $197	+10% $154
Rent	-10% $102	-5% $170	+0% $239	+5% $307	+10% $375
Rate	-1.0pp $314	-0.5pp $277	base $239	+0.5pp $200	+1.0pp $161

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,250
• Closing costs: $4,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3604 Lexington Ave Unit 5 Mohegan Lake, NY	—	1.0	400	$1,500	$3.75	11d	1	1.28mi
3604 Lexington Ave Unit 3 Mohegan Lake, NY	1.0	1.0	529	$1,900	$3.59	0d	1	1.28mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-04-25
   status Pending 328-char remark

   Show marketing remark (328 chars)

   Incredible Fixer-Upper! Welcome to Lake Community living! Charming and quaint - bring this pre-war property back to its pleasing, old-fashioned condition. Bring your tools and bring your favorite handy person who can fix anything! Don't wait - this desirable end-of-road gem, complete with two parking spots, won't last long.

2. 2026-04-15
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (328 chars)

   Incredible Fixer-Upper! Welcome to Lake Community living! Charming and quaint - bring this pre-war property back to its pleasing, old-fashioned condition. Bring your tools and bring your favorite handy person who can fix anything! Don't wait - this desirable end-of-road gem, complete with two parking spots, won't last long.

3. 2026-04-15
   historical Active Under Contract 328-char remark

   Show marketing remark (328 chars)

   Incredible Fixer-Upper! Welcome to Lake Community living! Charming and quaint - bring this pre-war property back to its pleasing, old-fashioned condition. Bring your tools and bring your favorite handy person who can fix anything! Don't wait - this desirable end-of-road gem, complete with two parking spots, won't last long.

4. 2026-04-01
   listed $149,000 Active
5. 2026-03-30
   listed $149,000 Active 328-char remark

   Show marketing remark (328 chars)

   Incredible Fixer-Upper! Welcome to Lake Community living! Charming and quaint - bring this pre-war property back to its pleasing, old-fashioned condition. Bring your tools and bring your favorite handy person who can fix anything! Don't wait - this desirable end-of-road gem, complete with two parking spots, won't last long.

6. 2016-08-31
   historical Expired
7. 2016-08-30
   historical
8. 2016-02-24
   listed Active
9. 2016-02-24
   listed $42,000
10. 2014-03-31
    price $35,000 Sold
11. 2014-03-31
    soldstatus $35,000 Sold
12. 2014-03-31
    soldstatus $35,000
13. 2014-03-15
    historical Pending
14. 2014-02-07
    price $38,500
15. 2014-01-30
    historical
16. 2013-11-18
    listed $38,500 Active
17. 2013-11-18
    listed $38,500
18. 2003-12-31
    historical
19. 2003-07-07
    listed
20. 1989-08-10
    soldstatus $60,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,393 · $283/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,393 · $283/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 19% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,733
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,346
• − Property taxes: −$3,393
• − Insurance: −$745
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,659
• − Management: −$1,659
• − Depreciation: −$4,335
• Taxable income: $597
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$143
• After-tax cash flow: $2,721/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Putnam Valley Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3624000
• Math proficiency: 73% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 71% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $94,086
• Composite: 65.26/100
• National rank: #491
• State rank: #91 of 590 in NY

Livability — Lake Mohegan

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #417
• US rank: #7240

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 7,361
• Population (ZIP): 2,418

Population outlook (Putnam County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 99,705 people
• By 2030: 99,650 · -0.1%
• By 2040: 98,641 · -1.1%
• By 2050: 96,348 · -3.4%
• By 2075: 94,412 · -5.3%
• By 2100: 88,728 · -11.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 16% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Puerto Rican 9%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Russian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 15% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Putnam

• 2024 margin: R (+13.7) · D 43.2% · R 56.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.2pp toward R · 2008: -7.5pp · 2024: -13.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.7 2020: R+7.9 2016: R+17.8 2012: R+11.2 2008: R+7.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 16.08%
• Current HPI: 295.284
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+148.3% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-25 Pending — HVCRMLS
• 2026-04-15 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-15 Contingent — HVCRMLS
• 2026-04-01 Listed $149,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-30 Listed $149,000 HVCRMLS
• 2016-08-31 Delisted — HGMLS
• 2016-08-30 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-02-24 Listed — HGMLS
• 2016-02-24 Listed $42,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-03-31 Sold (MLS) $35,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-03-31 Sold (MLS) $35,000 HGMLS
• 2014-03-31 Price Changed $35,000 HGMLS
• 2014-03-15 Contingent — HGMLS
• 2014-02-07 Price Changed $38,500 HGMLS
• 2014-01-30 Delisted — HGMLS
• 2013-11-18 Listed $38,500 HGMLS
• 2013-11-18 Listed $38,500 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2003-12-31 Delisted — HGMLS
• 2003-07-07 Listed — HGMLS
• 1989-08-10 Sold (Public Records) $60,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,393 · +3.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.