512 Rain Tree Ln · Tarrant, AL 35217

$175,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,360 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1974 0.80 ac lot Est $131k · 34% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.8/30.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.8/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 512 Rain Tree Lane in Birmingham! This well-maintained 3-bedroom, 2.5-bath home sits on a large lot, offering plenty of outdoor space to enjoy, entertain, or create the backyard you've always wanted. Proudly owned by just one owner since it was built, this home reflects years of care and pride of ownership. Inside, you'll find a functional floor plan with comfortable living spaces, abundant natural light, and room to make it your own. A new roof provides added value and peace of mind for the next owner. Whether you're looking for your first home, more space for your family, or a property with a spacious yard, this home is a great opportunity in a convenient Birmingham location. D

Key facts

• Large lot
• Outdoor space
• New roof

Tags

• LARGE LOT
• OUTDOOR SPACE
• NEW ROOF
• FUNCTIONAL FLOOR PLAN
• ABUNDANT NATURAL LIGHT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot size approximately 0.8 acres; Subdivision: Ketona Crest Estates
• Financial info: Garbage fee collected quarterly

Exterior

• Parking: Front garage entry; Driveway parking; 1 total garage space (basement level)
• Utilities: Public water; Septic system; Electric water heater; Internet available (Spectrum)
• Home design: Single-family existing home; Four-sided brick construction; Basement foundation; Property faces unspecified direction; Paved road access
• Construction: 4-side brick exterior; Basement foundation (concrete block)
• Exterior features: Screened deck; Storage building; No pool; No patio or garden view; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Laminate countertops; Eating area; Dishwasher (built-in), Refrigerator, Electric stove
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom (main level); Two additional bedrooms (main level)
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One half bathroom (basement); Tub/shower combo
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central cooling
• Interior features: 9 ft.+ ceilings; Attic (other); Full, unfinished basement with concrete block construction
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Laundry located in basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $81 ($973/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $141k (19.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $141k (19.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 11.0% in Tarrant — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 51/100 on livability (#507 in AL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Tarrant City (suburban): math 4% / reading 17% proficiency, ranked #121 of 129 in AL (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 89% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Tarrant Elementary School (310 students, 85% FRL); Tarrant High School (math 3% / reading 16%, grade F, #258 of 305 statewide, top 85%, 559 students, 84% FRL) — zoned schools at 85% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.6%/yr); 94 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 2,114 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (556 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($40k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $30k; list at $175k implies a 483% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $141,368 (19.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.99%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $130,560
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2059 Chenoor Rd	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,308 (-4%)	7mo	$125,000	$96	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.58% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.54×
• Total profit: $-22,449
• Equity at exit: $26,093

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.80×
• Total profit: $-9,799
• Equity at exit: $15,131

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35217

• Rents YoY: 3.6%
• Active inventory: 94
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,414 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax from tax record: −$45 /mo · $541/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$297
• Net cashflow: $81

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,311

Max offer price $175,000

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $180	-5% $131	+0% $81	+5% $32	+10% $-18
Rent	-10% $-31	-5% $25	+0% $81	+5% $137	+10% $193
Rate	-1.0pp $169	-0.5pp $126	base $81	+0.5pp $36	+1.0pp $-10

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1041 Georgetown Ln Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1262	$1,691	$1.34	2d	1	1.26mi
5 1st St Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.5	1020	$900	$0.88	44d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $175,000 Active 3 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $175,000 Active 2 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   remarks 699-char remark
4. 2026-06-15
   listed $175,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $541 · $45/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $718 · $60/mo
• Expected delta: +$177/yr (+$15/mo · 32.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 9 unhealthy d/yr today · 10 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,964
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$541
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,357
• − Management: −$1,357
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable loss: −$2,060
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$494
• After-tax cash flow: $1,467/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tarrant City
• NCES district ID: 0103270
• Math proficiency: 4% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 17% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $29,256
• Composite: 8.0/100
• National rank: #9924
• State rank: #121 of 129 in AL

Livability — Tarrant

• Score: 51/100
• State rank: #507
• US rank: #25136

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tarrant, AL
• County: Jefferson County · 527,445 people
• City population: 12,240
• Metro: Birmingham-Hoover, AL
• Population (ZIP): 12,240
• Household income: $40,486
• Rent vs Own: 52.5% rent · 47.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 594.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 669,185 people
• By 2030: 669,694 · +0.1%
• By 2040: 661,388 · -1.2%
• By 2050: 643,086 · -3.9%
• By 2075: 577,267 · -13.7%
• By 2100: 474,758 · -29.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 57% White 27% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 13%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: D (+10.4) · D 54.6% · R 44.2% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +5.4pp toward D · 2008: 5.1pp · 2024: 10.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.4 2020: D+13.2 2016: D+7.2 2012: D+6.0 2008: D+5.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -74.54%
• Current HPI: 117.416
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.58%
• Metro: Birmingham-Hoover, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+483.3% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Listed $175,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 1974-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $30,000 Public Records