2394 Blue Willow Ln · Rocky Mount, NC 27804

$149,500

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,418 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 20 Days on market

Built 1958 10,018 sqft lot Est $251k · 40% under ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.3/10.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 2394 Blue Willow Ln in Rocky Mount, a recently updated home offering a fresh, move-in ready feel with a layout designed for comfortable everyday living. Inside, new carpet and fresh paint create a clean and inviting atmosphere, while newer windows and a newer roof add to the home's overall appeal and upkeep. The living spaces flow easily for both relaxing and gathering, complemented by three bedrooms that offer flexibility for guests, home office use, or additional living needs. With one and a half baths, the home is designed for convenience, and outside, the nicely landscaped yard adds curb appeal and a pleasant setting to enjoy time outdoors. Located in Rocky Mount, this property combines recent updates with practical living spaces in a setting that feels both welcoming and easy to maintain.

Key facts

• Fresh paint
• New carpet
• Newer roof

Tags

• NEW CARPET
• FRESH PAINT
• NEWER WINDOWS
• NEWER ROOF
• LANDSCAPED YARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $268 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $147k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.0% vs local median 4.5% in Rocky Mount — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#134 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, employment F.
• Nash-Rocky Mount Schools (rural): math 20% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #155 of 178 in NC (top 87%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Rocky Mount Middle (math 7% / reading 26%, grade F, #449 of 475 statewide, top 96%, 407 students, 97% FRL); Rocky Mount High (math 27% / reading 36%, grade F, #449 of 535 statewide, top 85%, 1,072 students, 76% FRL) — zoned schools average 86% FRL vs 59% district-wide (27 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.2%/yr); 392 active listings in the ZIP; 500 units permitted in Nash County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($61k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Nash County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($147k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $100k; 50% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wind risk, 73% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $147,257 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.59%
• DSCR: 1.43
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $250,986
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
830 Brandywine Ln	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,442 (+2%)	4mo	$212,500	$147	67
103 Wildberry Dr	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,455 (+3%)	6mo	$279,900	$192	66
2432 Sexton Rd	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,444 (+2%)	3mo	$205,440	$142	66
26 Wildberry Ct	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,440 (+2%)	13mo	$260,000	$181	65
126 Douglas St	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,525 (+8%)	5mo	$126,000	$83	59
48 Wildberry Dr	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,403 (-1%)	17mo	$298,500	$213	59
1133 Strawbush Rd	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,491 (+5%)	13mo	$250,000	$168	55
1100 Brandywine Ln	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,350 (-5%)	11mo	$212,500	$157	54
313 Wellspring Dr	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,618 (+14%)	1mo	$290,490	$180	42
333 Wellspring Dr	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,618 (+14%)	1mo	$255,560	$158	42
345 Wellspring Dr	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,618 (+14%)	6mo	$286,490	$177	38
357 Wellspring Dr	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,618 (+14%)	6mo	$290,990	$180	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.72×
• Total profit: $-11,736
• Equity at exit: $22,291

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.86×
• Total profit: $-5,932
• Equity at exit: $12,926

Cash invested: $41,860 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 27804

• Rents YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 392
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,554 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$784
• Tax from tax record: −$47 /mo · $562/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$326
• Net cashflow: $268

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,215

Max offer price $149,500

Occupancy floor 78%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $353	-5% $310	+0% $268	+5% $226	+10% $183
Rent	-10% $145	-5% $207	+0% $268	+5% $329	+10% $391
Rate	-1.0pp $343	-0.5pp $306	base $268	+0.5pp $229	+1.0pp $190

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,375
• Closing costs: $4,485
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-04-22
   status Pending 815-char remark

   Show marketing remark (815 chars)

   Welcome to 2394 Blue Willow Ln in Rocky Mount, a recently updated home offering a fresh, move-in ready feel with a layout designed for comfortable everyday living. Inside, new carpet and fresh paint create a clean and inviting atmosphere, while newer windows and a newer roof add to the home's overall appeal and upkeep. The living spaces flow easily for both relaxing and gathering, complemented by three bedrooms that offer flexibility for guests, home office use, or additional living needs. With one and a half baths, the home is designed for convenience, and outside, the nicely landscaped yard adds curb appeal and a pleasant setting to enjoy time outdoors. Located in Rocky Mount, this property combines recent updates with practical living spaces in a setting that feels both welcoming and easy to maintain.

2. 2026-04-22
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (815 chars)

   Welcome to 2394 Blue Willow Ln in Rocky Mount, a recently updated home offering a fresh, move-in ready feel with a layout designed for comfortable everyday living. Inside, new carpet and fresh paint create a clean and inviting atmosphere, while newer windows and a newer roof add to the home's overall appeal and upkeep. The living spaces flow easily for both relaxing and gathering, complemented by three bedrooms that offer flexibility for guests, home office use, or additional living needs. With one and a half baths, the home is designed for convenience, and outside, the nicely landscaped yard adds curb appeal and a pleasant setting to enjoy time outdoors. Located in Rocky Mount, this property combines recent updates with practical living spaces in a setting that feels both welcoming and easy to maintain.

3. 2026-04-02
   listed $149,500 Active 815-char remark

   Show marketing remark (815 chars)

   Welcome to 2394 Blue Willow Ln in Rocky Mount, a recently updated home offering a fresh, move-in ready feel with a layout designed for comfortable everyday living. Inside, new carpet and fresh paint create a clean and inviting atmosphere, while newer windows and a newer roof add to the home's overall appeal and upkeep. The living spaces flow easily for both relaxing and gathering, complemented by three bedrooms that offer flexibility for guests, home office use, or additional living needs. With one and a half baths, the home is designed for convenience, and outside, the nicely landscaped yard adds curb appeal and a pleasant setting to enjoy time outdoors. Located in Rocky Mount, this property combines recent updates with practical living spaces in a setting that feels both welcoming and easy to maintain.

4. 2026-04-02
   listed $149,500 Active

   Show marketing remark (815 chars)

   Welcome to 2394 Blue Willow Ln in Rocky Mount, a recently updated home offering a fresh, move-in ready feel with a layout designed for comfortable everyday living. Inside, new carpet and fresh paint create a clean and inviting atmosphere, while newer windows and a newer roof add to the home's overall appeal and upkeep. The living spaces flow easily for both relaxing and gathering, complemented by three bedrooms that offer flexibility for guests, home office use, or additional living needs. With one and a half baths, the home is designed for convenience, and outside, the nicely landscaped yard adds curb appeal and a pleasant setting to enjoy time outdoors. Located in Rocky Mount, this property combines recent updates with practical living spaces in a setting that feels both welcoming and easy to maintain.

5. 2026-03-23
   soldstatus $100,000
6. 2026-03-20
   soldstatus $100,000 Closed 139-char remark

   Show marketing remark (139 chars)

   completely renovated, new windows, Hvac, carpet, roof, painted inside and outside, must see to appreciate, vacant lot beside house included

7. 2026-02-24
   historical Active Under Contract 139-char remark

   Show marketing remark (139 chars)

   completely renovated, new windows, Hvac, carpet, roof, painted inside and outside, must see to appreciate, vacant lot beside house included

8. 2025-11-05
   listed $159,900 Active 139-char remark

   Show marketing remark (139 chars)

   completely renovated, new windows, Hvac, carpet, roof, painted inside and outside, must see to appreciate, vacant lot beside house included

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $562 · $47/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,226 · $102/mo
• Expected delta: +$664/yr (+$55/mo · 118.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 76% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 73% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,645
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,374
• − Property taxes: −$562
• − Insurance: −$1,545
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,492
• − Management: −$1,492
• − Depreciation: −$4,349
• Taxable income: $832
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$200
• After-tax cash flow: $3,016/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Nash-Rocky Mount Schools
• NCES district ID: 3703270
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $41,553
• Composite: 22.04/100
• National rank: #8198
• State rank: #155 of 178 in NC

Livability — Rocky Mount

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #134
• US rank: #7692

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rocky Mount, NC
• County: Nash County · 50,768 people
• City population: 70,300
• Metro: Rocky Mount, NC
• Population (ZIP): 30,713
• Household income: $61,359
• Rent vs Own: 46.0% rent · 54.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 710.0

Population outlook (Nash County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 91,107 people
• By 2030: 89,193 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 84,959 · -6.7%
• By 2050: 80,517 · -11.6%
• By 2075: 72,941 · -19.9%
• By 2100: 63,602 · -30.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 52% White 38% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Nash

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.7% · R 50.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.4pp no change · 2008: -1.3pp · 2024: -1.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.8 2020: D+0.2 2016: R+0.2 2012: D+0.9 2008: R+1.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -142.83%
• Current HPI: 183.0082
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.17%
• Metro: Rocky Mount, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

-6.5% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Pending — Hive MLS
• 2026-04-22 Pending — TMLS
• 2026-04-02 Listed $149,500 TMLS
• 2026-04-02 Listed $149,500 Hive MLS
• 2026-03-23 Sold (Public Records) $100,000 Public Records
• 2026-03-20 Sold (MLS) $100,000 Hive MLS
• 2026-02-24 Contingent — Hive MLS
• 2025-11-05 Listed $159,900 Hive MLS

Property tax history

+4.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $562 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.