21649 S 525 Rd · Jerico Springs, MO 64756

$79,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,855 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 42 Days on market

Built 1935 8.00 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.0/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Country Living Farmstead with Renovation or Rebuild Potential Near Stockton Lake In SW MO. For those seeking a small hobby farm or homestead, this tract offers an opportunity for buyers seeking a full renovation project or land suitable for new construction. With vision and investment, the property could be transformed into a charming modern residence that honors its historic character. Alternatively, the location, acreage, and setting make it an ideal site for a complete rebuild tailored to the buyer's preferences. Nestled on a spacious 8.17 acre parcel with mature trees and wide views, the property features a 1 1/2-story home ready for renovation or redevelopment. While the residence requ

Key facts

• Hobby farm
• Homestead
• New construction

Tags

• HOBBY FARM
• HOMESTEAD
• NEW CONSTRUCTION
• HISTORIC CHARACTER
• SPACIOUS PARCEL
• MATURE TREES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $321 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $77k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#686 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Stockton R-I (rural): math 45% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #77 of 324 in MO (top 24%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Stockton Elem. (math 57% / reading 57%, grade C+, #159 of 1,115 statewide, top 16%, 359 students, 49% FRL); Stockton Middle (math 40% / reading 47%, grade D, #127 of 391 statewide, top 34%, 277 students, 42% FRL) — zoned schools at 46% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 13 active listings in the ZIP; 4 units permitted in Cedar County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($550 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (4.0% local appreciation)).
• Cedar County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (4.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 42 days — a 3% lower offer ($77k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1935 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $77,115 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 42 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1935 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.28% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.29%
• DSCR: 1.77
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.05% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.55×
• Total profit: $34,488
• Equity at exit: $40,540

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.7%
• Equity multiple: 4.99×
• Total profit: $88,793
• Equity at exit: $66,491

Cash invested: $22,260 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 64756

• Home prices YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 13
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,015 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$417
• Tax from tax record: −$31 /mo · $376/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$213
• Net cashflow: $321

Break-even live

Break-even rent $609

Max offer price $79,500

Occupancy floor 63%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,875
• Closing costs: $2,385
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2025-11-12
   status Pending
2. 2025-10-01
   listed $79,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $376 · $31/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $771 · $64/mo
• Expected delta: +$395/yr (+$33/mo · 104.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,185
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,453
• − Property taxes: −$376
• − Insurance: −$398
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$975
• − Management: −$975
• − Depreciation: −$2,313
• Taxable income: $2,696
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$647
• After-tax cash flow: $3,203/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Stockton R-I
• NCES district ID: 2929520
• Math proficiency: 45% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $35,609
• Composite: 39.32/100
• National rank: #3989
• State rank: #77 of 324 in MO

Livability — Jerico Springs

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #686
• US rank: #22537

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 508
• Population (ZIP): 508

Population outlook (Cedar County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 13,424 people
• By 2030: 13,080 · -2.6%
• By 2040: 12,434 · -7.4%
• By 2050: 11,841 · -11.8%
• By 2075: 10,171 · -24.2%
• By 2100: 7,744 · -42.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 5%
• Common ancestry: Italian 6% Iranian 5% Portuguese 4%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cedar

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+69.6) · D 14.8% · R 84.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -36.0pp toward R · 2008: -33.6pp · 2024: -69.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+69.6 2020: R+65.9 2016: R+63.9 2012: R+47.0 2008: R+33.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.05%
• Current HPI: 192.0746
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-12 Pending — OGAR
• 2025-10-01 Listed $79,500 OGAR

Property tax history

-2.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $376 · -0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.