409 E Bridge St · Cynthiana, KY 41031

$189,900

5 bd · 1.5 ba · 2,616 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

0.42 ac lot Est $269k · 30% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0

Listing remarks

With a bit of attention and care, this spacious older home holds immense potential! Featuring large rooms and ample space for family living, this house offers 5 bedrooms, with the primary bedroom conveniently located on the first floor. If you're in the market for a project or a fixer-upper, this is the perfect opportunity for you!

Key facts

• 0.42 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Listed 3 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached carport; Detached garage (property has a garage); Driveway
• Utilities: Public sewer; Cable available; Electricity connected; Natural gas connected; Sewer connected; Water connected
• Home design: House; Two levels
• Construction: Stone foundation; Brick veneer and wood siding; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Stone foundation; Brick veneer and wood siding; Dimensional shingle-style roof; Public water (not waterfront)

Interior

• Kitchen: No appliances listed
• Bedrooms: Total of 11 rooms (bedroom count not specified)
• Flooring: Carpet; Hardwood; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Natural gas
• Interior features: Entrance foyer; Storm windows and screens; Basement with exterior and interior entry, unfinished with walk-out access; Fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $151 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $165k (13.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $165k (13.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 3.6% in Cynthiana — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#113 in KY, #4,911 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Harrison County (town): math 21% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #133 of 165 in KY (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Harrison County Middle School (math 19% / reading 35%, grade F, #172 of 217 statewide, top 80%, 607 students, 58% FRL); Harrison County High School (math 29% / reading 41%, grade F, #74 of 254 statewide, top 29%, 865 students, 46% FRL) — zoned schools at 52% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 95 active listings in the ZIP; 69 units permitted in Harrison County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $20k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $19k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Harrison County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $53k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $164,736 (13.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.25%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.40%
• DSCR: 1.15
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $269,448
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
304 East Pleasant St	0.28mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,584 (-1%)	12mo	$265,000	$103	68
584 New Lair Rd	0.47mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,648 (+1%)	7mo	$165,000	$62	63
103 Fairway Dr	0.68mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,934 (+12%)	12mo	$320,000	$109	27

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.12×
• Total profit: $112,952
• Equity at exit: $171,077

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.4%
• Equity multiple: 7.11×
• Total profit: $324,926
• Equity at exit: $368,934

Cash invested: $53,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 41031

• Home prices YoY: 4.4%
• Active inventory: 95
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,647 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$76 /mo · $908/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$346
• Net cashflow: $151

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,457

Max offer price $189,900

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $258	-5% $205	+0% $151	+5% $97	+10% $43
Rent	-10% $21	-5% $86	+0% $151	+5% $216	+10% $281
Rate	-1.0pp $246	-0.5pp $199	base $151	+0.5pp $102	+1.0pp $51

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,475
• Closing costs: $5,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $189,900 Active 3 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $189,900 Active 2 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   remarks 333-char remark
4. 2026-06-15
   listed $189,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $908 · $76/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,633 · $136/mo
• Expected delta: +$725/yr (+$60/mo · 79.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,768
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,637
• − Property taxes: −$908
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,581
• − Management: −$1,581
• − Depreciation: −$5,524
• Taxable loss: −$1,414
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$339
• After-tax cash flow: $2,148/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Harrison County
• NCES district ID: 2102580
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -25.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -19.00%
• Median HH income: $39,744
• Composite: 22.28/100
• National rank: #8138
• State rank: #133 of 165 in KY

Livability — Cynthiana

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #113
• US rank: #4911

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cynthiana, KY
• Population (ZIP): 16,748

Population outlook (Harrison County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 18,605 people
• By 2030: 18,361 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 17,685 · -4.9%
• By 2050: 16,845 · -9.5%
• By 2075: 14,882 · -20.0%
• By 2100: 12,314 · -33.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harrison

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+48.5) · D 25.1% · R 73.6% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -27.4pp toward R · 2008: -21.1pp · 2024: -48.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+48.5 2020: R+44.4 2016: R+43.8 2012: R+29.1 2008: R+21.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 14.31%
• Current HPI: 339.482
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Listed $189,900 ImagineMLS

Property tax history

-0.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $908 · -0.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.