1503 Sheltered Ln · Magnolia, TX 77354

$309,990

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,160 sqft · Land · 9 Days on market

Built 2026 8,574 sqft lot $75/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +8.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.2/10.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Progreso floorplan is a thoughtfully designed two-story home that features four spacious bedrooms and three bathrooms, perfectly suited for growing families or those who love to entertain. The first floor offers an inviting open-concept layout, with the kitchen seamlessly flowing into the family room and casual dining area. A convenient guest suite or flexible room on the main level adds versatility to the layout. Upstairs, the primary suite provides a private retreat with a walk-in closet and a luxurious en suite bathroom, while the additional bedrooms and a shared game room ensure ample space for relaxation or recreation. The two-car garage rounds out the design, providing functionality and style in every corner of this charming home.

Key facts

• Grand entry
• Iron stair railings
• Quiet cul-de-sac

Tags

• QUIET CUL-DE-SAC
• GRAND ENTRY
• IRON STAIR RAILINGS
• SPACIOUS GAME ROOM
• DINING AREA
• TALL CEILINGS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Builder: Coventry Homes; Has additional parcels
• HOA & community: Maison Property Management association; Annual association fee

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2-car garage
• Security: Prewired for security; Security system owned; Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; New construction (2026); Faces north; Slab foundation
• Construction: Brick and cement siding exterior; Composition roof; Built in 2026
• Exterior features: Private yard; Located on a cul-de-sac; Subdivision setting; Concrete road surface

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Gas cooktop; Microwave; Disposal; ENERGY STAR qualified appliances
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on first floor (14 x 13); Bedroom on first floor (10 x 10); Two bedrooms on second floor (each 10 x 10)
• Flooring: Carpet; Plank; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: Three full bathrooms; Double vanity in primary bath
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning; Has heating; Has cooling
• Interior features: High ceilings; Kitchen/family room combo; Quartz counters; Double vanity; Soaking tub; Separate shower; Tub/shower combination; Walk-in pantry; Ceiling fan(s); Programmable thermostat; Low emissivity windows
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

🏗️ New construction. The $309,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $336,089.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath land listed at $310k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-326 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $279k (10.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $224k (27.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $224k (27.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 3.4% in Magnolia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#222 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Willie E Williams El (math 46% / reading 41%, grade F, #1,269 of 4,322 statewide, top 30%, 869 students, 70% FRL); Magnolia West H S (math 41% / reading 53%, grade D-, #591 of 1,632 statewide, top 38%, 2,208 students, 52% FRL) — zoned schools average 61% FRL vs 39% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1604 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $36k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $34k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$58k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 3% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Recommended offer $223,792 (27.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.13%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.15%
• DSCR: 0.82
• GRM: 12.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $336,089
• List price: $309,990
• Delta: -9.25%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.66×
• Total profit: $156,307
• Equity at exit: $302,776

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.3%
• Equity multiple: 5.95×
• Total profit: $465,738
• Equity at exit: $652,947

Cash invested: $94,105 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77354

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 1604
• Price-to-rent: 11.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,238 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,762
• Tax from tax record: −$116 /mo · $1,395/yr
• Insurance: −$140
• HOA: −$75
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$470
• Net cashflow: $-326

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,650

Max offer price $278,532

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $84,022
• Closing costs: $10,083
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $75 · $900/yr

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $309,990 Active 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   price $309,990 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $299,990 Active 8 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $299,990 Active 7 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $299,990 Active 6 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on marketlisting id $299,990 Active 4 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $299,990 Active 41 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $299,990 Active 40 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $299,990 Active 39 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $299,990 Active 36 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $299,990 Active 35 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $299,990 Active 34 DOM

    Show marketing remark (750 chars)

    The Progreso floorplan is a thoughtfully designed two-story home that features four spacious bedrooms and three bathrooms, perfectly suited for growing families or those who love to entertain. The first floor offers an inviting open-concept layout, with the kitchen seamlessly flowing into the family room and casual dining area. A convenient guest suite or flexible room on the main level adds versatility to the layout. Upstairs, the primary suite provides a private retreat with a walk-in closet and a luxurious en suite bathroom, while the additional bedrooms and a shared game room ensure ample space for relaxation or recreation. The two-car garage rounds out the design, providing functionality and style in every corner of this charming home.

13. 2026-06-02
    price $299,990 Active 33 DOM

    Show marketing remark (750 chars)

    The Progreso floorplan is a thoughtfully designed two-story home that features four spacious bedrooms and three bathrooms, perfectly suited for growing families or those who love to entertain. The first floor offers an inviting open-concept layout, with the kitchen seamlessly flowing into the family room and casual dining area. A convenient guest suite or flexible room on the main level adds versatility to the layout. Upstairs, the primary suite provides a private retreat with a walk-in closet and a luxurious en suite bathroom, while the additional bedrooms and a shared game room ensure ample space for relaxation or recreation. The two-car garage rounds out the design, providing functionality and style in every corner of this charming home.

14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $304,990 Active 33 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $304,990 Active 32 DOM
16. 2026-05-15
    price $309,990 750-char remark

    Show marketing remark (750 chars)

    The Progreso floorplan is a thoughtfully designed two-story home that features four spacious bedrooms and three bathrooms, perfectly suited for growing families or those who love to entertain. The first floor offers an inviting open-concept layout, with the kitchen seamlessly flowing into the family room and casual dining area. A convenient guest suite or flexible room on the main level adds versatility to the layout. Upstairs, the primary suite provides a private retreat with a walk-in closet and a luxurious en suite bathroom, while the additional bedrooms and a shared game room ensure ample space for relaxation or recreation. The two-car garage rounds out the design, providing functionality and style in every corner of this charming home.

17. 2026-05-15
    price $309,990 748-char remark

    Show marketing remark (750 chars)

    The Progreso floorplan is a thoughtfully designed two-story home that features four spacious bedrooms and three bathrooms, perfectly suited for growing families or those who love to entertain. The first floor offers an inviting open-concept layout, with the kitchen seamlessly flowing into the family room and casual dining area. A convenient guest suite or flexible room on the main level adds versatility to the layout. Upstairs, the primary suite provides a private retreat with a walk-in closet and a luxurious en suite bathroom, while the additional bedrooms and a shared game room ensure ample space for relaxation or recreation. The two-car garage rounds out the design, providing functionality and style in every corner of this charming home.

18. 2026-05-02
    price $319,990 750-char remark

    Show marketing remark (750 chars)

    The Progreso floorplan is a thoughtfully designed two-story home that features four spacious bedrooms and three bathrooms, perfectly suited for growing families or those who love to entertain. The first floor offers an inviting open-concept layout, with the kitchen seamlessly flowing into the family room and casual dining area. A convenient guest suite or flexible room on the main level adds versatility to the layout. Upstairs, the primary suite provides a private retreat with a walk-in closet and a luxurious en suite bathroom, while the additional bedrooms and a shared game room ensure ample space for relaxation or recreation. The two-car garage rounds out the design, providing functionality and style in every corner of this charming home.

19. 2026-04-29
    price $319,990
20. 2026-04-29
    listed $319,990 Active 748-char remark
21. 2026-04-29
    historical
22. 2026-01-29
    price $324,990 750-char remark

    Show marketing remark (750 chars)

    The Progreso floorplan is a thoughtfully designed two-story home that features four spacious bedrooms and three bathrooms, perfectly suited for growing families or those who love to entertain. The first floor offers an inviting open-concept layout, with the kitchen seamlessly flowing into the family room and casual dining area. A convenient guest suite or flexible room on the main level adds versatility to the layout. Upstairs, the primary suite provides a private retreat with a walk-in closet and a luxurious en suite bathroom, while the additional bedrooms and a shared game room ensure ample space for relaxation or recreation. The two-car garage rounds out the design, providing functionality and style in every corner of this charming home.

23. 2026-01-28
    price $324,990
24. 2026-01-02
    listed $329,990 Active 750-char remark

    Show marketing remark (750 chars)

    The Progreso floorplan is a thoughtfully designed two-story home that features four spacious bedrooms and three bathrooms, perfectly suited for growing families or those who love to entertain. The first floor offers an inviting open-concept layout, with the kitchen seamlessly flowing into the family room and casual dining area. A convenient guest suite or flexible room on the main level adds versatility to the layout. Upstairs, the primary suite provides a private retreat with a walk-in closet and a luxurious en suite bathroom, while the additional bedrooms and a shared game room ensure ample space for relaxation or recreation. The two-car garage rounds out the design, providing functionality and style in every corner of this charming home.

25. 2025-12-08
    listed $329,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,395 · $116/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,673 · $473/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,278/yr (+$356/mo · 306.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,855
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,826
• − Property taxes: −$1,395
• − Insurance: −$1,680
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,148
• − Management: −$2,148
• − HOA: −$900
• − Depreciation: −$9,777
• Taxable loss: −$10,021
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,405
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,505/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

Livability — Magnolia

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #222
• US rank: #5442

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 32,847
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,900
• Household income: $112,504
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 586.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 18% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.09%
• Current HPI: 512.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.32%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-6.1% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Price Changed $309,990 HARMLS
• 2026-06-09 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-06-09 Listed $299,990 HARMLS
• 2026-06-02 Price Changed $299,990 Zillow
• 2026-06-01 Price Changed $299,990 HARMLS
• 2026-05-21 Price Changed $304,990 Zillow
• 2026-05-20 Price Changed $304,990 HARMLS
• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $309,990 Zillow
• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $309,990 HARMLS
• 2026-05-02 Price Changed $319,990 Zillow
• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $319,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-29 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-04-29 Listed $319,990 HARMLS
• 2026-01-29 Price Changed $324,990 Zillow
• 2026-01-28 Price Changed $324,990 HARMLS
• 2026-01-02 Listed $329,990 Zillow
• 2025-12-08 Listed $329,990 HARMLS

Property tax history

-0.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,395 · -0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.