7313 Santa Barbara St #294 · Carlsbad, CA 92011

$580,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,422 sqft · Manufactured public records · 100 Days on market

Built 2016 $408/sqft · 54% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.8/10.0
• Schools +6.5/10.0
• Appreciation +5.9/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to paradise with a stunning lake and greenbelt view! Built in 2016, a beautifully maintained three bedroom, two bath manufactured home located in the highly desirable 55+ gated community of Lakeshore Gardens in Carlsbad. A meticulous masterpiece featuring a panoramic view of the greenbelt and lake with a full-length deck across the rear of the home. Furnishings throughout interior are included with the sale! Expansive dual pane windows and double patio doors filling the living and kitchen with natural light. Bright and open floor plan with vaulted ceilings. Spacious open living and dining areas flow into a well-designed kitchen featuring stainless steel appliances, plenty of cabinetry and counter space with an extended island for all your cooking and entertaining needs. Upgraded ceiling fans located throughout the home. Combination air conditioning and heating unit. Primary suite provides a private retreat with ample closet space and main bathroom with a gorgeous tiled shower. An additional bedroom off of the living room has double doors and is perfect for guests, hobbies, or even a home office. Step outside to a large covered deck and low-maintenance yard with artificial turf—ideal for morning coffee, ocean breezes, or gathering with friends. Lakeshore Gardens is one of Carlsbad’s most sought-after 55+ communities offering resort-style amenities including a clubhouse, heated pool, spa, fitness center, and beautifully landscaped walking paths. Plus, coast highway and the beach is just a distance away! Minutes from shopping, dining, and everyday conveniences, this home offers the ideal blend of comfort and lifestyle!

Key facts

• Greenbelt view
• Lake view
• Extended island

Tags

• LAKE VIEW
• GREENBELT VIEW
• FULL-LENGTH DECK
• DUAL PANE WINDOWS
• EXTENDED ISLAND
• UPGRADED CEILING FANS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $580k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $860 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $544k (6.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $528k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 2.1% in Carlsbad — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#67 in CA, #2,526 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, amenities A+, commute A+; Watch: health & safety D+, cost of living F.
• Carlsbad Unified (urban): math 68% / reading 76% proficiency, ranked #87 of 1,400 in CA (top 6%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.5%/yr); 96 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 47% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 11,759 units permitted in San Diego County in 2024 (7,244 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($159k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $14k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $10k appreciation (1.8% local appreciation)).
• San Diego County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (1.8% appreciation + 3.5% rent growth), your $162k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 100 days — a 9% lower offer ($528k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $100k; list at $580k implies a 480% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $527,800 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 100 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.07%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.36%
• DSCR: 1.28
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $380,537
• List price: $580,000
• Delta: 52.42%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7140 Santa Rosa St	0.04mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (+1%)	6mo	$191,000	$133	86
7024 San Bartolo Unit 19 A	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,544 (+9%)	2mo	$425,000	$275	84
7018 San Carlos St #60	0.10mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (+1%)	6mo	$392,000	$272	83
7106 Santa Cruz #56	0.05mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,464 (+3%)	9mo	$390,000	$266	81
7217 San Luis St #173	0.11mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (+1%)	10mo	$280,000	$194	80
7311 San Luis St #237	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,359 (-4%)	1mo	$236,550	$174	75
7203 San Luis St #166	0.06mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,536 (+8%)	9mo	$375,000	$244	69
7318 San Luis St	0.37mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (+1%)	9mo	$285,000	$198	68
7313 San Luis St #236	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,548 (+9%)	5mo	$450,000	$291	66
7304 Santa Barbara St #325	0.23mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,512 (+6%)	9mo	$481,000	$318	66
7243 San Luis St #257	0.22mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,248 (-12%)	2mo	$120,000	$96	63
7224 San Benito St	0.13mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,600 (+12%)	9mo	$400,000	$250	61

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.75% appreciation · 3.54% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.55×
• Total profit: $89,897
• Equity at exit: $220,922

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.83×
• Total profit: $296,384
• Equity at exit: $312,211

Cash invested: $162,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92011

• Home prices YoY: 0.4%
• Rents YoY: 3.5%
• Active inventory: 96
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,442 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,042
• Tax from tax record: −$156 /mo · $1,866/yr
• Insurance: −$242
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,143
• Net cashflow: $860

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,353

Max offer price $580,000

Occupancy floor 79%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,189	-5% $1,025	+0% $860	+5% $696	+10% $532
Rent	-10% $431	-5% $645	+0% $860	+5% $1,075	+10% $1,290
Rate	-1.0pp $1,153	-0.5pp $1,008	base $860	+0.5pp $710	+1.0pp $557

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $145,000
• Closing costs: $17,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7290 Ponto Dr Carlsbad, CA	4.0	3.5	1757	$8,395	$4.78	0d	1	0.28mi
6923 Whitecap Dr Carlsbad, CA	3.0	2.0	1246	$5,250	$4.21	44d	1	0.47mi
820 Windcrest Dr Carlsbad, CA	3.0	2.0	1404	$5,581	$3.98	18d	1	0.65mi
6938 Seascape Dr Carlsbad, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	775	$3,775	$4.87	0d	9	0.66mi
6790 Embarcadero Ln Carlsbad, CA	1.0–2.0	2.0–2.5	2104	$5,750	$2.73	5d	1	0.72mi
6910 Peachtree Rd Unit 1546353P Carlsbad, CA	3.0	2.0	1399	$6,129	$4.38	17d	1	0.76mi
6811 Alderwood Dr Carlsbad, CA	2.0	2.0	1292	$3,850	$2.98	44d	1	0.86mi
916 Caminito Estrada Unit B Carlsbad, CA	2.0	2.0	1188	$3,650	$3.07	44d	1	0.98mi
902 Caminito Madrigal Unit B Carlsbad, CA	2.0	1.0	897	$3,200	$3.57	11d	1	1.02mi
6675 Paseo del Norte Unit A Carlsbad, CA	2.0	2.0	959	$3,850	$4.01	5d	1	1.02mi
6675 Paseo del Norte Unit B Carlsbad, CA	2.0	2.0	959	$4,300	$4.48	44d	1	1.02mi
6677 Paseo Del Norte Carlsbad, CA	2.0	2.0	959	$4,500	$4.69	44d	1	1.03mi
6677 Paseo del Norte Unit B Carlsbad, CA	2.0	1.0	959	$3,950	$4.12	44d	1	1.03mi
908 Caminito Madrigal Carlsbad, CA	2.0	2.0	897	$4,500	$5.02	44d	1	1.07mi
908 Caminito Madrigal Unit D Carlsbad, CA	2.0	1.5	897	$4,500	$5.02	44d	1	1.09mi
925 Wind Drift Dr Carlsbad, CA	2.0	2.5	1110	$3,895	$3.51	44d	1	1.15mi
6555 Sea Gate Rd Carlsbad, CA	2.0	2.0	1114	$4,095	$3.67	2d	3	1.18mi
1967 N Vulcan Ave Encinitas, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	931	$5,359	$5.76	0d	6	1.27mi
1812 Parliament Rd Encinitas, CA	2.0	2.0	1467	$11,200	$7.63	0d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 34 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $580,000 Active 100 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $580,000 Active 99 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $580,000 Active 98 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $580,000 Active 97 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $580,000 Active 95 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $580,000 Active 94 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $580,000 Active 91 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $580,000 Active 90 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $580,000 Active 89 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $580,000 Active 86 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $580,000 Active 85 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $580,000 Active 84 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $580,000 Active 83 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $580,000 Active 82 DOM
15. 2026-03-10
    listed $580,000 Active 1663-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1663 chars)

    Welcome to paradise with a stunning lake and greenbelt view! Built in 2016, a beautifully maintained three bedroom, two bath manufactured home located in the highly desirable 55+ gated community of Lakeshore Gardens in Carlsbad. A meticulous masterpiece featuring a panoramic view of the greenbelt and lake with a full-length deck across the rear of the home. Furnishings throughout interior are included with the sale! Expansive dual pane windows and double patio doors filling the living and kitchen with natural light. Bright and open floor plan with vaulted ceilings. Spacious open living and dining areas flow into a well-designed kitchen featuring stainless steel appliances, plenty of cabinetry and counter space with an extended island for all your cooking and entertaining needs. Upgraded ceiling fans located throughout the home. Combination air conditioning and heating unit. Primary suite provides a private retreat with ample closet space and main bathroom with a gorgeous tiled shower. An additional bedroom off of the living room has double doors and is perfect for guests, hobbies, or even a home office. Step outside to a large covered deck and low-maintenance yard with artificial turf—ideal for morning coffee, ocean breezes, or gathering with friends. Lakeshore Gardens is one of Carlsbad’s most sought-after 55+ communities offering resort-style amenities including a clubhouse, heated pool, spa, fitness center, and beautifully landscaped walking paths. Plus, coast highway and the beach is just a distance away! Minutes from shopping, dining, and everyday conveniences, this home offers the ideal blend of comfort and lifestyle!

16. 2026-02-19
    historical
17. 2025-10-14
    price $599,000
18. 2025-08-27
    listed $629,000 Active
19. 2015-06-09
    status Pending
20. 2015-06-09
    historical
21. 2015-06-09
    historical
22. 2015-05-26
    listed $138,900 Active
23. 2015-05-26
    listed $138,900
24. 2013-04-25
    soldstatus $100,000 Sold
25. 2013-04-25
    soldstatus $100,000
26. 2013-03-22
    status Pending
27. 2013-03-12
    price $103,000
28. 2013-02-02
    price $109,000
29. 2013-01-05
    listed $114,900 Active
30. 2013-01-03
    listed $103,000
31. 2013-01-02
    historical
32. 2012-12-31
    historical
33. 2012-11-09
    listed $114,900 Active
34. 2012-11-06
    listed $114,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,866 · $156/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,408 · $367/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,542/yr (+$212/mo · 136.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥82°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $65,304
• − Mortgage interest: −$32,489
• − Property taxes: −$1,866
• − Insurance: −$2,900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,224
• − Management: −$5,224
• − Depreciation: −$16,873
• Taxable income: $728
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$175
• After-tax cash flow: $10,151/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Carlsbad Unified
• NCES district ID: 0607500
• Math proficiency: 68% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 76% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $81,200
• Composite: 65.11/100
• National rank: #1068
• State rank: #87 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Carlsbad

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #67
• US rank: #2526

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime B Employment A+ Housing C+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Carlsbad, CA
• County: San Diego County · 3,178,799 people
• City population: 114,373
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• Population (ZIP): 23,190
• Household income: $159,235
• Rent vs Own: 36.0% rent · 64.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 714.0

Population outlook (San Diego County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,678,185 people
• By 2030: 3,856,546 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 4,171,407 · +13.4%
• By 2050: 4,421,607 · +20.2%
• By 2075: 4,831,599 · +31.4%
• By 2100: 4,832,502 · +31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 15% Asian 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Slovak 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 6% Chinese 4% German/W. Germanic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · San Diego

• 2024 margin: D (+16.8) · D 56.9% · R 40.1% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: 10.2pp · 2024: 16.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.8 2020: D+22.8 2016: D+17.8 2012: D+5.1 2008: D+10.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.75%
• Current HPI: 399.8502
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.54%
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+404.8% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-10 Listed $580,000 SDMLS
• 2026-02-19 Listing Removed — SDMLS
• 2025-10-14 Price Changed $599,000 SDMLS
• 2025-08-27 Listed $629,000 SDMLS
• 2015-06-09 Pending — SDMLS
• 2015-06-09 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2015-06-09 Listing Removed — SDMLS
• 2015-05-26 Listed $138,900 SDMLS
• 2015-05-26 Listed $138,900 CRMLS
• 2013-04-25 Sold (MLS) $100,000 CRMLS
• 2013-04-25 Sold (MLS) $100,000 SDMLS
• 2013-03-22 Pending — SDMLS
• 2013-03-12 Price Changed $103,000 SDMLS
• 2013-02-02 Price Changed $109,000 SDMLS
• 2013-01-05 Listed $114,900 SDMLS
• 2013-01-03 Listed $103,000 CRMLS
• 2013-01-02 Listing Removed — SDMLS
• 2012-12-31 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2012-11-09 Listed $114,900 SDMLS
• 2012-11-06 Listed $114,900 CRMLS