104 Lonesome Doe Cir · Perry, GA 31047

$280,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,764 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 17 Days on market

Built 2004 0.41 ac lot Est $296k · 6% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.8/30.0
• ARV discount +10.0/15.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover this inviting residence nestled in the desirable Kathleen area. Boasting a fresh coat of paint throughout and new LVP flooring, this cozy abode offers a refreshing atmosphere from the moment you step inside. With three bedrooms, two baths, and a bonus room, there's ample space for comfortable living and flexibility to suit your needs. Enjoy the convenience of a large corner lot, perfect for outdoor relaxation or entertaining. Don't miss this opportunity to make this charming home yours!

Key facts

• Large backyard
• Great schools
• 0.41 acre lot

Tags

• LARGE BACKYARD
• ESTABLISHED NEIGHBORHOOD
• GREAT SCHOOLS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; Two covered parking spaces (total 2 parking spaces, 2 garage spaces)
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story
• Construction: Slab foundation
• Exterior features: No pool; Lot in Deer Run subdivision

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Storage

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $280k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-27 ($-322/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $275k (1.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $214k (23.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $214k (23.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 4.5% in Perry — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#149 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Houston County (urban): math 43% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #23 of 174 in GA (top 13%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Perry Middle School (math 53% / reading 51%, grade C+, #60 of 470 statewide, top 13%, 1,070 students, 51% FRL); Perry High School (math 31% / reading 39%, grade F, #84 of 424 statewide, top 20%, 1,478 students, 48% FRL) — zoned schools at 50% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 253 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,545 units permitted in Houston County in 2024 (336 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Houston County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($276k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $240k; 17% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $213,806 (23.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.18%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.41%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $296,352
• Comps found: 11

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
104 Lonesome Doe Cir	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,764 (0%)	24mo	$240,000	$136	80
412 Otter's Ridge Dr	0.29mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,760 (-0%)	14mo	$305,900	$174	69
117 Lonesome Doe Cir	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,534 (-13%)	10mo	$245,000	$160	66
208 Willowbrook Ln	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,620 (-8%)	10mo	$299,460	$185	66
102 Emberwood Way	0.29mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,888 (+7%)	7mo	$345,504	$183	64
113 Lonesome Doe Cir	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,503 (-15%)	15mo	$245,000	$163	61
407 Otter's Ridge Dr	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,929 (+9%)	16mo	$324,900	$168	57
306 Sylvan Dr	0.51mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,848 (+5%)	13mo	$106,000	$57	53
2717 Highway 127	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,878 (+6%)	5mo	$850,000	$453	52
411 Otter's Ridge Dr	0.29mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,936 (+10%)	16mo	$324,900	$168	52
2728 Ga Highway 127	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,956 (+11%)	22mo	$455,000	$233	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-47,181
• Equity at exit: $41,749

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-43,698
• Equity at exit: $24,209

Cash invested: $78,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31047

• Home prices YoY: -14.4%
• Active inventory: 253
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,138 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax from tax record: −$131 /mo · $1,570/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$449
• Net cashflow: $-27

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,172

Max offer price $275,266

Occupancy floor 96%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $70,000
• Closing costs: $8,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
107 Linda Sue Ln Kathleen, GA	3.0	2.0	1620	$1,600	$0.99	20d	1	0.74mi
531 Bristleleaf Path , GA	3.0	2.0	1620	$2,250	$1.39	20d	1	0.82mi
114 Linda Sue Ln Kathleen, GA	4.0	2.0	1976	$1,700	$0.86	20d	1	0.82mi
118 Linda Sue Ln Kathleen, GA	3.0	2.0	1248	$1,500	$1.20	20d	1	0.86mi
120 Linda Sue Ln Kathleen, GA	3.0	2.0	1248	$1,500	$1.20	20d	1	0.87mi
307 Willowbrook Ln Kathleen, GA	3.0	2.0	1675	$2,150	$1.28	20d	1	0.89mi
307 Willowbrook Ln Kathleen, GA	3.0	2.0	1675	$2,100	$1.25	43d	1	0.89mi
609 Bristleleaf Path , GA	3.0	2.0	1675	$2,250	$1.34	20d	1	1.06mi
513 Bristleleaf Path , GA	3.0	2.0	1675	$2,250	$1.34	20d	1	1.19mi
521 Bristleleaf Path , GA	3.0	2.0	1675	$2,250	$1.34	20d	1	1.19mi
531 Bristleleaf Path , GA	3.0	2.0	1620	$2,250	$1.39	43d	1	1.19mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $280,000 Active 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $280,000 Active 16 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $280,000 Active 15 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $280,000 Active 14 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $280,000 Active 13 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $280,000 Active 11 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $280,000 Active 10 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $280,000 Active 8 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $280,000 Active 7 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $280,000 Active 6 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $280,000 Active 5 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $280,000 Active 2 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    remarks 299-char remark
14. 2026-06-03
    listed $280,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,570 · $131/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,576 · $215/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,006/yr (+$84/mo · 64.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,657
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,684
• − Property taxes: −$1,570
• − Insurance: −$1,400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,053
• − Management: −$2,053
• − Depreciation: −$8,145
• Taxable loss: −$5,248
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,260
• After-tax cash flow: $938/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston County
• NCES district ID: 1302880
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $54,823
• Composite: 38.68/100
• National rank: #4144
• State rank: #23 of 174 in GA

Livability — Perry

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #149
• US rank: #9757

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Houston County · 157,321 people
• City population: 22,953
• Metro: Warner Robins, GA
• Population (ZIP): 20,203
• Household income: $117,332
• Rent vs Own: 14.7% rent · 85.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 11.0

Population outlook (Houston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 169,502 people
• By 2030: 178,486 · +5.3%
• By 2040: 194,642 · +14.8%
• By 2050: 207,119 · +22.2%
• By 2075: 231,480 · +36.6%
• By 2100: 235,034 · +38.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Black 18% Two or more races 12% Hispanic / Latino 8% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, South Korea, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% Korean 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Houston

• 2024 margin: R (+11.3) · D 44.0% · R 55.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +8.9pp toward D · 2008: -20.2pp · 2024: -11.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.3 2020: R+12.4 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+20.7 2008: R+20.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -36.77%
• Current HPI: 218.1333
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Warner Robins, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+133.7% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Listed $280,000 CGMLS
• 2024-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $240,000 Public Records
• 2024-06-21 Sold (MLS) $240,000 GAMLS
• 2024-06-21 Sold (MLS) $240,000 CGMLS
• 2024-05-22 Pending — GAMLS
• 2024-05-22 Pending — CGMLS
• 2024-05-10 Listed $240,000 CGMLS
• 2024-05-09 Listed $240,000 GAMLS
• 2018-03-07 Sold (Public Records) $154,000 Public Records
• 2018-03-02 Sold (MLS) $154,000 CGMLS
• 2018-03-02 Sold (MLS) $154,000 GAMLS
• 2017-11-24 Listed $154,000 CGMLS
• 2017-11-24 Listed $154,000 GAMLS
• 2017-05-03 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2017-04-25 Listed $154,000 GAMLS
• 2011-06-30 Sold (Public Records) $139,900 Public Records
• 2011-06-27 Sold (MLS) $139,900 CGMLS
• 2010-11-17 Listed $139,900 CGMLS
• 2004-10-29 Sold (Public Records) $119,800 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2023): $1,570 · +3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.