10105 Grace Dr · Waco, TX 76708

$295,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,654 sqft · SingleFamily · 99 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 2-car garage $179/sqft · 15% below area Est $347k · 15% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.1/15.0
• Cash flow +10.0/30.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Some images shown may be from a previously built Stylecraft home of similar design. Actual options, colors, and selections may vary. Contact us for details! This four-bedroom, two bath home is a great option for those looking for more bedrooms without a second story! You won't believe your eyes as you walk into the great space that is the open concept living room, dining room, and kitchen. With all of its wonderful features, to include walk-in closets, granite countertops, and corner kitchen with island, you are sure to love this home!

Key facts

• dining room
• Walk-in closets
• kitchen

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT LIVING ROOM
• DINING ROOM
• KITCHEN
• WALK-IN CLOSETS
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• CORNER KITCHEN WITH ISLAND

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $296k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-180 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $270k (8.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $236k (20.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $236k (20.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 3.9% in Waco — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#166 in TX, #4,378 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D, commute F, employment D-.
• China Spring ISD (rural): math 58% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #70 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: China Spring El (math 37% / reading 47%, grade F, #1,335 of 4,322 statewide, top 33%, 677 students, 36% FRL); China Spring Middle (math 63% / reading 59%, grade B+, #145 of 1,662 statewide, top 9%, 478 students, 34% FRL); China Spring H S (math 50% / reading 69%, grade C+, #275 of 1,632 statewide, top 19%, 948 students, 31% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 474 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 70d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,014 units permitted in McLennan County in 2024 (200 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($69k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• McLennan County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 99 days — a 9% lower offer ($269k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 61% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $236,012 (20.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 99 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.56%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.61%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $346,506
• List price: $295,900
• Delta: -14.60%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10312 Neptune Ct	0.21mi	4/2.0	1,612 (-2%)	0mo	$265,030	$164	86
10225 Altair Dr	0.18mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,691 (+2%)	2mo	$279,575	$165	79
10409 Neptune Ct	0.25mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,691 (+2%)	0mo	$280,965	$166	77
5308 Tama Dr	0.44mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,719 (+4%)	0mo	$302,000	$176	68
10712 Peperak Ct	0.49mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,590 (-4%)	0mo	$279,000	$175	66
5813 Foggy Lagoon Dr	0.47mi	4/2.0	1,568 (-5%)	7mo	$301,065	$192	63
10212 Neptune Ct	0.15mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,415 (-14%)	3mo	$254,180	$180	62
10405 Aquilla Trl	0.37mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,823 (+10%)	1mo	$383,400	$210	60
10616 Whitney Trce	0.43mi	4/3.0	1,795 (+8%)	6mo	$329,999	$184	57
10517 Rayburn Way	0.35mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,851 (+12%)	7mo	$349,900	$189	53
5613 Foggy Lagoon Dr	0.48mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,508 (-9%)	7mo	$300,735	$199	52
55 Wisteria St	0.75mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,540 (-7%)	3mo	$325,000	$211	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.20×
• Total profit: $-66,319
• Equity at exit: $44,120

10-year hold

• IRR: -30.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.20×
• Total profit: $-99,130
• Equity at exit: $25,584

Cash invested: $82,852 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 70 active · 23 under contract
• Months of supply: 16.8 mo (6%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $289,715 ($179/sqft)
• Median days on market: 65 d
• This list price: 59% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +16.8% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 76708

• Home prices YoY: -26.5%
• Rents YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 474
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,360 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,552
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$370 /mo · $4,438/yr
• Insurance: −$123
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$496
• Net cashflow: $-180

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,588

Max offer price $269,795

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $24	-5% $-78	+0% $-180	+5% $-283	+10% $-385
Rent	-10% $-367	-5% $-274	+0% $-180	+5% $-87	+10% $6
Rate	-1.0pp $-31	-0.5pp $-105	base $-180	+0.5pp $-257	+1.0pp $-335

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $73,975
• Closing costs: $8,877
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10201 Altair Dr Waco, TX	4.0	2.0	2032	$2,600	$1.28	70d	1	0.17mi
5516 Pinery Dr Waco, TX	3.0	2.5	2124	$2,600	$1.22	62d	1	0.39mi
10220 Lilac Waco, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,695	$1.13	92d	1	0.79mi
9836 Salem Way Waco, TX	3.0	2.0	1600	$1,795	$1.12	62d	1	1.37mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 10105 Grace Dr, Waco TX 76708Listing status: ActiveLast updated: 2026-05-21
• Financial info: List price $295,900

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces2-car garage
• Home design: Single-family home
• Exterior features: Living area of 1,654 (listed)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Spec-built single-family plan named "The 1651"

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $295,900 Active 99 DOM
2. 2026-08-07
   days on market $295,900 Active 98 DOM
3. 2026-08-06
   days on market $295,900 Active 97 DOM
4. 2026-08-05
   days on market $295,900 Active 96 DOM
5. 2026-08-04
   days on market $295,900 Active 95 DOM
6. 2026-08-03
   days on market $295,900 Active 94 DOM
7. 2026-07-31
   days on market $295,900 Active 91 DOM
8. 2026-07-29
   days on market $295,900 Active 89 DOM
9. 2026-07-27
   days on market $295,900 Active 87 DOM
10. 2026-07-25
    days on market $295,900 Active 85 DOM
11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $295,900 Active 83 DOM
12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $295,900 Active 82 DOM
13. 2026-07-21
    days on market $295,900 Active 81 DOM
14. 2026-07-18
    days on market $295,900 Active 78 DOM
15. 2026-07-16
    days on market $295,900 Active 76 DOM
16. 2026-07-16
    days on market $295,900 Active 75 DOM
17. 2026-07-14
    days on market $295,900 Active 74 DOM
18. 2026-07-13
    days on market $295,900 Active 73 DOM
19. 2026-07-12
    days on market $295,900 Active 72 DOM
20. 2026-07-11
    days on market $295,900 Active 71 DOM
21. 2026-07-10
    days on market $295,900 Active 70 DOM
22. 2026-07-09
    days on market $295,900 Active 69 DOM
23. 2026-07-08
    days on market $295,900 Active 68 DOM
24. 2026-07-07
    days on market $295,900 Active 67 DOM
25. 2026-07-06
    days on market $295,900 Active 66 DOM
26. 2026-07-05
    days on market $295,900 Active 65 DOM
27. 2026-07-04
    days on market $295,900 Active 64 DOM
28. 2026-07-03
    days on market $295,900 Active 63 DOM
29. 2026-07-02
    days on market $295,900 Active 62 DOM
30. 2026-07-01
    days on market $295,900 Active 61 DOM
31. 2026-06-30
    days on market $295,900 Active 60 DOM
32. 2026-06-29
    days on market $295,900 Active 59 DOM
33. 2026-06-28
    days on market $295,900 Active 58 DOM
34. 2026-06-28
    days on market $295,900 Active 57 DOM
35. 2026-06-27
    days on market $295,900 Active 56 DOM
36. 2026-06-25
    days on market $295,900 Active 54 DOM
37. 2026-06-23
    days on market $295,900 Active 52 DOM
38. 2026-06-22
    days on market $295,900 Active 51 DOM
39. 2026-06-18
    days on market $295,900 Active 48 DOM
40. 2026-06-17
    days on market $295,900 Active 47 DOM
41. 2026-06-16
    days on market $295,900 Active 46 DOM
42. 2026-06-15
    days on market $295,900 Active 45 DOM
43. 2026-06-14
    days on market $295,900 Active 43 DOM
44. 2026-06-13
    days on market $295,900 Active 42 DOM
45. 2026-06-10
    days on market $295,900 Active 40 DOM
46. 2026-06-09
    days on market $295,900 Active 39 DOM
47. 2026-06-08
    days on market $295,900 Active 38 DOM
48. 2026-06-07
    days on market $295,900 Active 37 DOM
49. 2026-06-02
    days on market $295,900 Active 32 DOM
50. 2026-06-01
    days on market $295,900 Active 31 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 61% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,321
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,575
• − Property taxes: −$4,438
• − Insurance: −$1,480
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,266
• − Management: −$2,266
• − Depreciation: −$8,608
• Taxable loss: −$7,311
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,755
• After-tax cash flow: $-410/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This four-bedroom, two-bath home is in excellent condition with modern finishes and a well-maintained exterior. It's move-in ready and would benefit from a fresh coat of paint and some landscaping to further enhance its curb appeal.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Painting the exterior — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal ↑
• Resale Landscaping the front yard — A well-maintained front yard can attract more buyers ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value ↑

D Composite school gradezoned avg 54/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary China Spring El F TX #1,335/4,322 Nat'l #17,861/41,679 Middle China Spring Middle B+ TX #145/1,662 Nat'l #1,667/14,009 High China Spring H S C+ TX #275/1,632 Nat'l #3,588/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: China Spring ISD
• NCES district ID: 4813960
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,314
• Composite: 50.64/100
• National rank: #1837
• State rank: #70 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 74/100

Livability — Waco

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #166
• US rank: #4378

Category grades

Amenities C Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Waco, TX
• County: McLennan County · 264,191 people
• City population: 125,319
• Metro: Waco, TX
• Population (ZIP): 27,790
• Household income: $68,856
• Rent vs Own: 30.1% rent · 69.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 15% of renters

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Population outlook (McLennan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 264,191 people
• By 2030: 273,578 · +3.6%
• By 2040: 291,506 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 308,044 · +16.6%
• By 2075: 349,648 · +32.3%
• By 2100: 364,779 · +38.1%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 20% Black 13% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 28%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 21% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · McLennan

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+30.9) · D 34.0% · R 64.9% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.0pp toward R · 2008: -23.9pp · 2024: -30.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+30.9 2020: R+23.4 2016: R+27.1 2012: R+29.8 2008: R+23.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -78.80%
• Current HPI: 218.9643
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.80%
• Metro: Waco, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 10105 Grace Dr, Waco TX 76708Listing status: ActiveLast updated: 2026-05-21
• Financial info: List price $295,900

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces2-car garage
• Home design: Single-family home
• Exterior features: Living area of 1,654 (listed)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Spec-built single-family plan named "The 1651"