1520 Colonial Gorge Dr · Houston, TX 77493

$324,900

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,018 sqft · Townhouse · 1 Days on market

Built 2026 $83/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.7/10.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Thoughtfully designed two-story plan with an open living, dining, and kitchen arrangement that creates an inviting flow for daily living and entertaining. A first-floor powder bath and attached garage add everyday convenience. Upstairs, the primary suite features two walk-in closets and a well-appointed bath with separate tub and shower, while two additional bedrooms share a full bath. A large utility room is also located upstairs for maximum functionality.

Key facts

• $83 HOA
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Managed by Beacon Residential Management; Community is gated; Annual association fee (amount provided separately); Association covers common areas, sewer, trash, and water

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2 garage spaces
• Security: Prewired; Security system owned; Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; New construction; 2 stories; Slab foundation; Built in 2026; Builder: City Choice Homes
• Construction: Cement siding; Wood siding
• Exterior features: Prewired for security; Owned security system; Smoke detectors; Composition roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas cooktop; Gas oven; Microwave; Garbage disposal
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom — Second level (approx. 13'4" x 13'10"); Bedroom — Second level (approx. 10'4" x 12'2"); Bedroom — Second level (approx. 10'5" x 11'4"); Office — First level (approx. 9'6" x 9'0")
• Flooring: Carpet; Engineered hardwood; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom; Primary bath includes soaking tub and separate shower
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning; Programmable thermostat
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Double vanity; Kitchen open to family room; Primary bedroom with private bath; Walk-in pantry; Soaking tub; Separate shower; Tub/shower combination; Vanity; Ceiling fans; Living/Dining area; Programmable thermostat; Low emissivity windows
• Laundry & utility: Laundry/utility details not specified

🏗️ New construction. The $324,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $324,665.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $325k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-55 ($-654/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $315k (3.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $246k (24.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $246k (24.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Katy ISD (suburban): math 61% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #29 of 826 in TX (top 4%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Robert King El (math 41% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,313 of 4,322 statewide, top 31%, 981 students, 68% FRL); Katy J H (math 52% / reading 51%, grade C, #318 of 1,662 statewide, top 20%, 1,094 students, 53% FRL); Katy H S (math 62% / reading 74%, grade B, #150 of 1,632 statewide, top 10%, 3,330 students, 38% FRL) — zoned schools average 53% FRL vs 27% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 2729 active listings in the ZIP; 30 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 7d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $246,292 (24.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.09%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.72%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $324,665
• List price: $324,900
• Delta: 0.07%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1514 Colonial Gorge Dr	0.01mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,925 (-5%)	0mo	$324,900	$169	86
24404 Colonial Mound Dr	0.05mi	3/2.5	1,809 (-10%)	0mo	$319,900	$177	80

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-63,412
• Equity at exit: $48,409

10-year hold

• IRR: -21.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.03×
• Total profit: $-88,040
• Equity at exit: $28,071

Cash invested: $90,906 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77493

• Rents YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 2729
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,463 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,703
• Tax from tax record: −$79 /mo · $952/yr
• Insurance: −$135
• HOA: −$83
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$517
• Net cashflow: $-55

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,532

Max offer price $315,034

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $129	-5% $37	+0% $-55	+5% $-146	+10% $-238
Rent	-10% $-249	-5% $-152	+0% $-55	+5% $43	+10% $140
Rate	-1.0pp $109	-0.5pp $28	base $-55	+0.5pp $-139	+1.0pp $-224

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $81,166
• Closing costs: $9,740
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 30 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1508 Colonial Gorge Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	1904	$2,650	$1.39	18d	1	0.04mi
1330 W Park Green Dr Katy, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1058	$2,297	$2.17	0d	15	0.15mi
1330 W Park Green Dr Katy, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1058	$2,222	$2.10	45d	16	0.15mi
1330 Park West Green Dr Unit 1363 Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1451	$2,212	$1.52	17d	1	0.17mi
24002 Colonial Pkwy Katy, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1072	$2,262	$2.11	0d	31	0.18mi
1739 Palmetto Park Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.5	2998	$3,100	$1.03	45d	1	0.39mi
1700 Katy Fort Bend Rd Katy, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1094	$2,415	$2.21	3d	33	0.61mi
24414 Leachwood Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1701	$2,195	$1.29	20d	1	0.65mi
24151 Bella Dolce Ln Unit 3112 Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1509	$2,214	$1.47	0d	1	0.72mi
24151 Bella Dolce Ln Unit 24184 Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1509	$2,496	$1.65	45d	1	0.72mi
24151 Bella Dolce Ln Unit 1 Katy, TX	3.0	2.5	1509	$2,313	$1.53	45d	1	0.72mi
24151 Bella Dolce Ln Unit 3174 Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1509	$2,254	$1.49	12d	1	0.72mi
24929 Katy Ranch Rd Katy, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1096	$1,767	$1.61	0d	23	0.73mi
2031 Wigmaker Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1430	$1,800	$1.26	7d	1	0.81mi
150 Cobia Dr Unit 3174 Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1454	$1,994	$1.37	12d	1	0.84mi
150 Cobia Dr Unit 183 Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1454	$2,005	$1.38	45d	1	0.84mi
150 Cobia Dr Unit 3187 Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1454	$1,954	$1.34	0d	1	0.84mi
24758 Grand Harbor Dr Unit 24791 Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1437	$2,114	$1.47	45d	1	1.01mi
24758 Grand Harbor Dr Unit 3174 Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1437	$2,063	$1.44	0d	1	1.01mi
24758 Grand Harbor Dr Unit 3047 Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1437	$2,114	$1.47	12d	1	1.02mi
302 Cobia Dr Katy, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1217	$2,469	$2.03	0d	22	1.03mi
23615 Western Centre Dr Katy, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1051	$2,230	$2.12	0d	31	1.05mi
1724 Partnership Way Katy, TX	3.0	1.0–3.5	1536	$3,340	$2.17	0d	86	1.12mi
23414 W Fernhurst Dr Katy, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1352	$3,099	$2.29	0d	30	1.12mi
1616 Partnership Way Katy, TX	3.0	1.0–3.0	1283	$2,940	$2.29	0d	49	1.17mi
2222 Princess Snow Cir Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2958	$2,425	$0.82	14d	1	1.18mi
10 Cobia Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1454	$2,275	$1.56	45d	1	1.24mi
1646 Chilton Ln Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1442	$2,000	$1.39	6d	1	1.25mi
23400 Kingsland Blvd Katy, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1062	$2,314	$2.18	0d	22	1.39mi
125 Prairie Ln Katy, TX	3.0	1.0–3.0	1292	$3,125	$2.42	0d	200	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $83 · $996/yr

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-03-31
   price $324,900 461-char remark
2. 2026-03-20
   listed $339,900 Active 461-char remark
3. 2025-10-14
   historical
4. 2025-08-11
   listed $349,700 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $952 · $79/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,946 · $495/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,993/yr (+$416/mo · 524.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,555
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,186
• − Property taxes: −$952
• − Insurance: −$1,623
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,364
• − Management: −$2,364
• − HOA: −$996
• − Depreciation: −$9,445
• Taxable loss: −$6,377
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,530
• After-tax cash flow: $876/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Katy ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825170
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $90,312
• Composite: 56.59/100
• National rank: #1146
• State rank: #29 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 71,484
• Household income: $118,464
• Rent vs Own: 20.4% rent · 79.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 913.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.73)
• Race & ethnicity: White 36% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 16% Black 15% Asian 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 22% Vietnamese 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -140.65%
• Current HPI: 233.1683
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.80%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-7.1% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-28 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-05-28 Listed $324,900 HARMLS
• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $324,900 HARMLS
• 2026-03-20 Listed $339,900 HARMLS
• 2025-10-14 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-08-11 Listed $349,700 HARMLS