145 Summer Dr · Elgin, TX 78621

$189,990

2 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,072 sqft · Land · 210 Days on market

Built 2026 4,791 sqft lot $177/sqft · 13% below area Est $219k · 13% under $70/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.7/30.0
• ARV discount +13.4/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.9/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

MLS# 4169577 - Built by Brohn Homes - Jun 2026 completion! ~ Welcome home to 145 Summer Drive in Elgin's premier and attainable Harvest Ridge master planned community. The open-concept main floor features wood-look vinyl flooring, Durango Maple cabinets, Miami White Silestone countertops, and a full black appliance package with a gas range. Upstairs, all bedrooms and the laundry are conveniently located along with the spacious primary suite which offers a dual vanity, Blanco Maple Silestone counters, and a walk-in shower. Additional highlights include 5-panel interior doors, satin nickel hardware, upgraded vanities, and a cohesive whole-home flooring package with carpeting and wood-look vinyl. Live where community comes to life with resort-style amenities, fishing ponds, pickleball courts, and a full-time Lifestyle Director planning year-round events—plus the convenience of an on-site elementary school just steps away

Key facts

• Gas range
• 4,791 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT MAIN FLOOR
• WOOD-LOOK VINYL FLOORING
• DURANGO MAPLE CABINETS
• FULL BLACK APPLIANCE PACKAGE
• GAS RANGE
• SPACIOUS PRIMARY SUITE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $187 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $189k (0.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $167k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 4.4% in Elgin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#167 in TX, #4,404 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Elgin ISD (rural): math 17% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #741 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 813 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,841 units permitted in Bastrop County in 2024 (150 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $20k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $19k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Bastrop County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.1% rent growth), your $53k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 210 days — a 12% lower offer ($167k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $167,191 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 210 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.21%
• DSCR: 1.19
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $218,695
• List price: $189,990
• Delta: -13.13%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.17×
• Total profit: $115,613
• Equity at exit: $171,158

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.9%
• Equity multiple: 7.23×
• Total profit: $331,623
• Equity at exit: $369,109

Cash invested: $53,197 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78621

• Home prices YoY: 7.6%
• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 813
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,887 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$159 /mo · $1,907/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$70
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$396
• Net cashflow: $187

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,651

Max offer price $189,990

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $294	-5% $240	+0% $187	+5% $133	+10% $79
Rent	-10% $38	-5% $112	+0% $187	+5% $261	+10% $336
Rate	-1.0pp $282	-0.5pp $235	base $187	+0.5pp $137	+1.0pp $87

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,498
• Closing costs: $5,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
19405 Bear Grass Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1495	$1,760	$1.18	45d	1	0.68mi
18721 Quiet Range Dr Elgin, TX	3.0–5.0	2.0–3.5	1773	$2,085	$1.18	3d	1	0.69mi
18316 Stellers Sea St Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1076	$2,045	$1.90	20d	1	0.81mi
14508 Wahlbergs Way Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1076	$2,045	$1.90	12d	1	0.83mi
13817 County Line Rd Elgin, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	937	$1,633	$1.74	3d	6	0.83mi
18200 Papuan Cv Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,900	$1.36	4d	1	0.92mi
101 Bandara Woods Blvd Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1499	$1,769	$1.18	16d	1	1.11mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $70 · $840/yr
• Likely covers: gas

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $189,990 Pending 210 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $189,990 Active 207 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $189,990 Active 206 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $189,990 Active 205 DOM
5. 2026-06-04
   days on market $189,990 Active 202 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $189,990 Active 201 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $189,990 Active 200 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $189,990 Active 199 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $189,990 Active 198 DOM
10. 2025-11-14
    listed $189,990 Active 937-char remark

    Show marketing remark (937 chars)

    MLS# 4169577 - Built by Brohn Homes - Jun 2026 completion! ~ Welcome home to 145 Summer Drive in Elgin's premier and attainable Harvest Ridge master planned community. The open-concept main floor features wood-look vinyl flooring, Durango Maple cabinets, Miami White Silestone countertops, and a full black appliance package with a gas range. Upstairs, all bedrooms and the laundry are conveniently located along with the spacious primary suite which offers a dual vanity, Blanco Maple Silestone counters, and a walk-in shower. Additional highlights include 5-panel interior doors, satin nickel hardware, upgraded vanities, and a cohesive whole-home flooring package with carpeting and wood-look vinyl. Live where community comes to life with resort-style amenities, fishing ponds, pickleball courts, and a full-time Lifestyle Director planning year-round events—plus the convenience of an on-site elementary school just steps away

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,907 · $159/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,477 · $290/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,570/yr (+$131/mo · 82.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,649
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,642
• − Property taxes: −$1,907
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,812
• − Management: −$1,812
• − HOA: −$840
• − Depreciation: −$5,527
• Taxable loss: −$841
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$202
• After-tax cash flow: $2,442/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elgin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4818360
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $55,176
• Composite: 19.62/100
• National rank: #8749
• State rank: #741 of 826 in TX

Livability — Elgin

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #167
• US rank: #4404

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Bastrop County · 68,601 people
• City population: 27,860
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,411
• Household income: $98,534
• Rent vs Own: 18.9% rent · 81.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 235.0

Population outlook (Bastrop County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 94,260 people
• By 2030: 101,355 · +7.5%
• By 2040: 115,578 · +22.6%
• By 2050: 129,464 · +37.3%
• By 2075: 168,068 · +78.3%
• By 2100: 194,857 · +106.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 46% White 38% Two or more races 19% Black 11% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 36%

Political lean MEDSL · Bastrop

• 2024 margin: R (+18.4) · D 40.2% · R 58.6% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: -8.2pp · 2024: -18.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.4 2020: R+13.8 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+17.0 2008: R+8.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 29.47%
• Current HPI: 416.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.12%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-11-14 Listed $189,990 Unlock MLS

Property tax history

+6.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,907 · +6.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.