8894 Coqui Song Ln · Connerton, FL 34637

$277,490

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,601 sqft · Townhouse · 81 Days on market

Built 2026 Fair condition Est $309k · 10% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.9/30.0
• ARV discount +12.1/15.0
• DSCR +6.3/10.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Appreciation +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0

Listing remarks

A porch leads into the first level of this two-story townhome where the family room, dining room and kitchen are situated among an open floorplan that maximizes the footprint of the interior. A lanai at the back is the perfect spot to enjoy a morning cup of coffee. Three bedrooms, all situated upstairs, complete this home.

Key facts

• Garage
• Built 2026
• Listed 81 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $286,090

Exterior

• Parking: 1-car garage (1 total parking space)
• Home design: Single-family home (Mulberry plan)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1601; Property located at 8894 Coqui Song Ln, Land O Lakes, FL 34637

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Interior features: Spec new construction (Mulberry plan)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $277k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $335 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $277k).
• Recommended offer: $261k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 4.3% in Connerton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#596 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 285 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.5%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 81 days — a 6% lower offer ($261k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $260,840 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 81 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.17%
• DSCR: 1.23
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $308,993
• Comps found: 11

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8775 Coquil Song Ln	0.08mi	3/2.5	1,601 (0%)	7mo	$268,040	$167	91
8953 Gallantree Pl	0.27mi	3/2.5	1,601 (0%)	9mo	$300,000	$187	80
9012 Gallantree Pl	0.29mi	3/2.5	1,601 (0%)	23mo	$310,490	$194	67
9034 Gallantree Pl	0.30mi	3/2.5	1,601 (0%)	23mo	$314,900	$197	67
9016 Gallantree Pl	0.29mi	3/2.5	1,601 (0%)	24mo	$309,990	$194	66
9040 Gallantree Pl	0.31mi	3/2.5	1,601 (0%)	24mo	$311,900	$195	66
9084 Gallantree Pl	0.34mi	3/2.5	1,601 (0%)	23mo	$300,805	$188	65
9118 Gallantree Pl	0.36mi	3/2.5	1,601 (0%)	22mo	$309,000	$193	65
9098 Gallantree Pl	0.35mi	3/2.5	1,601 (0%)	23mo	$307,490	$192	65
9094 Gallantree Pl	0.35mi	3/2.5	1,601 (0%)	23mo	$309,990	$194	65
9124 Gallantree Pl	0.36mi	3/2.5	1,601 (0%)	22mo	$304,900	$190	65

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.54% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.92×
• Total profit: $-6,209
• Equity at exit: $59,882

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.49×
• Total profit: $38,107
• Equity at exit: $57,012

Cash invested: $77,697 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34637

• Home prices YoY: -1.2%
• Active inventory: 285
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,851 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,455
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$347 /mo · $4,162/yr
• Insurance: −$116
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$599
• Net cashflow: $335

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,427

Max offer price $277,490

Occupancy floor 83%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,372
• Closing costs: $8,325
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8862 Gallantree Pl Unit 8862-Townhouse Land O' Lakes, FL	3.0	2.5	1601	$2,195	$1.37	12d	1	0.25mi
22310 Blazing Star Run Land O Lakes, FL	4.0	2.5	1870	$2,650	$1.42	17d	1	0.30mi
9436 Scouter Bee Pl Land O' Lakes, FL	2.0	2.5	1951	$2,350	$1.20	4d	1	0.88mi
9645 Carabiner Way Land O' Lakes, FL	4.0	2.5	1870	$2,700	$1.44	24d	1	0.98mi
9676 Nyssa St Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.5	1601	$2,099	$1.31	12d	1	1.04mi
21818 Lyonia Ln Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.5	1601	$2,250	$1.41	14d	1	1.07mi
21869 Adriatic Ln Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.5	1601	$2,400	$1.50	24d	1	1.12mi
21831 Adriatic Ln Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	3.0	1601	$1,995	$1.25	4d	1	1.13mi
9750 Campanula Ct Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.5	2208	$2,700	$1.22	24d	1	1.16mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $277,490 Active 81 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $277,490 Active 80 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $277,490 Active 79 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   price $277,490 Active 78 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   pricedays on market $277,390 Active 78 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $276,390 Active 76 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $276,290 Active 72 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $276,290 Active 71 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $276,290 Active 70 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $276,190 Active 67 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $276,190 Active 66 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $276,190 Active 65 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $286,190 Active 64 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $286,190 Active 63 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,213
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,544
• − Property taxes: −$4,162
• − Insurance: −$1,387
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,737
• − Management: −$2,737
• − Depreciation: −$8,072
• Taxable loss: −$427
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$102
• After-tax cash flow: $4,119/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 4 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

The home requires significant repairs, particularly to the roof, and some maintenance to the exterior siding. Addressing these issues will substantially increase its value.

Repairs flagged

• Major roof — Signs of significant wear and tear are visible in the satellite image.

Value-add opportunities

• Both repair and replace roof — A new roof will significantly improve the home's appearance and functionality, enhancing both resale and rental value.
• Both paint exterior siding — Fresh paint will improve the home's curb appeal and make it more attractive to potential buyers or renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
roof · Signs of significant wear and tear are visible in the satellite image.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 1 items		$15,000–50,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both repair and replace roof — A new roof will significantly improve the home's appearance and functionality, enhancing both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both paint exterior siding — Fresh paint will improve the home's curb appeal and make it more attractive to potential buyers or renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Connerton

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #596
• US rank: #11437

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Connerton, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• City population: 11,398
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 13,049
• Household income: $115,214
• Rent vs Own: 8.7% rent · 91.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 96.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 10% Black 7% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 10% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Italian 3% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 4% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.54%
• Current HPI: 126.1415
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B