#02 Plan · Fort Worth, TX 76040

$165,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,080 sqft · SingleFamily · 572 Days on market

Good condition

---

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.0/30.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• 1% rule +1.3/10.0
• DSCR +0.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Open concept floor plan featuring high ceilings with fans and crown molding. Spacious island kitchen has farm sink & stainless steel appliances. Large bedrooms with walk in closets. 10x10 storage shed. Landscape package included and 10x10 storage shed. Home is located in highly desirable neighborhood close to amenities, great schools HEB ISD, and major highways. Harston Woods Community is ideally located in the center of the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex, convenient to shopping malls, Six Flags, DFW airport, Great Wolf Lodge, Texas Rangers Ballpark and AT & T Stadium Home of the Dallas Cowboys! Harston Woods is a land-lease community. Monthly lot rental fees are $660 for standard lots and $695 for premium lots. License # MHDRET36197. Call 817-540-2000 for more information. (z).

Key facts

• Island kitchen
• Storage shed
• Walk in closets

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN
• ISLAND KITCHEN
• FARM SINK
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• WALK IN CLOSETS
• STORAGE SHED

🏗️ New construction. The $165,000 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $253,075.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $165k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-485 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $160k (3.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $145k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#49 in TX, #1,954 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Hurst-Euless-Bedford ISD (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #193 of 826 in TX (top 23%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Wilshire El (math 47% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,155 of 4,322 statewide, top 29%, 641 students, 64% FRL); Harwood J H (math 57% / reading 65%, grade B+, #145 of 1,662 statewide, top 9%, 1,038 students, 45% FRL); Trinity H S (math 62% / reading 17%, grade F, #821 of 1,632 statewide, top 53%, 2,665 students, 56% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 148 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 32d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 52% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 18,938 units permitted in Tarrant County in 2024 (8,336 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tarrant County population projected at +41% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 572 days — a 12% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $145,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 572 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.63% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.00%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.21%
• DSCR: 0.63
• GRM: 13.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $253,075
• List price: $165,000
• Delta: -34.80%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2312 Dalewood Ln	1.49mi	2/2.0	1,138 (+5%)	4mo	$200,000	$176	53
904 Nelson Ter	1.46mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,139 (+6%)	4mo	$245,000	$215	47
3515 Garrett Rd	0.60mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,144 (+6%)	17mo	$242,500	$212	42
1700 Sotogrande Blvd Unit 107	0.88mi	2/2.0	1,111 (+3%)	23mo	$290,000	$261	41
733 Bluebonnet Dr	1.48mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,233 (+14%)	2mo	$299,000	$242	35
909 Dee Ln	1.44mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,240 (+15%)	10mo	$305,000	$246	27
912 Wilemon Dr	1.41mi	3/1.5 (+1)	962 (-11%)	17mo	$199,000	$207	26
2113 Gettysburg	1.43mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,246 (+15%)	16mo	$288,000	$231	22
1012 Wilemon Dr	1.49mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,298 (+20%)	18mo	$249,000	$192	20
2000 Natchez Ave	1.33mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,245 (+15%)	22mo	$279,000	$224	17
1109 David Dr	1.11mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,236 (+14%)	28mo	$250,000	$202	16
2510 Sakeena Ct	1.30mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,350 (+25%)	25mo	$474,990	$352	15

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.62% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -32.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.04×
• Total profit: $-74,036
• Equity at exit: $37,734

10-year hold

• IRR: -46.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.59×
• Total profit: $-112,857
• Equity at exit: $21,881

Cash invested: $70,861 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 1 active
• Median asking: $165,000 ($141/sqft)
• Median days on market: 362 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: +66.6% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 76040

• Home prices YoY: -23.6%
• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 148
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,601 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,327
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$316 /mo · $3,796/yr
• Insurance: −$105
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$336
• Net cashflow: $-485

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,214

Max offer price $182,965

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-310	-5% $-397	+0% $-485	+5% $-572	+10% $-659
Rent	-10% $-611	-5% $-548	+0% $-485	+5% $-421	+10% $-358
Rate	-1.0pp $-357	-0.5pp $-420	base $-485	+0.5pp $-550	+1.0pp $-617

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $63,269
• Closing costs: $7,592
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10604 Tube Dr Unit 104 Hurst, TX	2.0	2.5	1350	$1,625	$1.20	6d	1	0.50mi
10604 Tube Dr Unit 104 Hurst, TX	2.0	2.5	1350	$1,650	$1.22	29d	1	0.50mi
10604 Tube Dr Unit 103 Hurst, TX	2.0	2.5	1350	$1,695	$1.26	44d	1	0.50mi
3475 Valley Vista Dr Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,095	$1.40	139d	1	0.54mi
3475 Valley Vista Dr Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,995	$1.33	120d	1	0.54mi
3413 Valley Vista Dr Hurst, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,995	$1.33	19d	1	0.56mi
3520 Garrett Rd Euless, TX	3.0	2.0	1151	$1,945	$1.69	94d	1	0.61mi
3601 Valley Vista Dr Unit 3621-505 Hurst, TX	2.0	2.5	1350	$1,650	$1.22	5d	1	0.67mi
3601 Valley Vista Dr Unit 3625-605 Hurst, TX	2.0	2.5	1350	$1,650	$1.22	74d	1	0.67mi
3601 Valley Vista Dr Unit 3625-601 Hurst, TX	2.0	2.5	1350	$1,650	$1.22	120d	1	0.67mi
3625 Valley Vista Dr Unit 601 Hurst, TX	2.0	2.5	1350	$1,650	$1.22	120d	1	0.69mi
3625 Valley Vista Dr #605 Hurst, TX	2.0	2.5	1350	$1,650	$1.22	74d	1	0.69mi
3409 Valley Vista Dr Hurst, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,995	$1.33	44d	1	0.72mi
3409 Valley Vista Dr Hurst, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,995	$1.33	19d	1	0.72mi
3621 Valley Vista Dr #505 Hurst, TX	2.0	2.5	1350	$1,650	$1.22	31d	1	0.72mi
1601 Sotogrande Blvd Hurst, TX	4.0	1.0–4.0	1422	$1,950	$1.37	0d	245	0.76mi
1768 Sotogrande Blvd Hurst, TX	2.0	2.0	1060	$1,183	$1.12	10d	1	0.86mi
1700 Sotogrande Blvd Hurst, TX	2.0	2.0	1080	$1,826	$1.69	10d	1	0.86mi
1700 Sotogrande Blvd Hurst, TX	2.0	2.0	1080	$1,760	$1.63	54d	1	0.86mi
1700 Sotogrande Blvd Hurst, TX	1.0	2.0	1008	$1,267	$1.26	98d	1	0.86mi
1700 Sotogrande Blvd Hurst, TX	1.0	1.0	897	$1,440	$1.61	7d	1	0.86mi
1700 Sotogrande Blvd Hurst, TX	2.0	2.0	1080	$1,339	$1.24	120d	1	0.86mi
1700 Sotogrande Blvd Hurst, TX	1.0	1.0	997	$1,415	$1.42	117d	1	0.86mi
1700 Sotogrande Blvd Hurst, TX	3.0	2.0	1321	$2,045	$1.55	76d	1	0.86mi
1700 Sotogrande Blvd Hurst, TX	3.0	2.0	1421	$2,084	$1.47	18d	1	0.86mi
1700 Sotogrande Blvd Hurst, TX	2.0	2.0	1080	$1,658	$1.54	3d	1	0.86mi
1700 Sotogrande Blvd Hurst, TX	1.0	1.0	714	$1,262	$1.77	11d	1	0.86mi
1700 Sotogrande Blvd Hurst, TX	1.0	1.0	997	$1,507	$1.51	6d	1	0.86mi
1700 Sotogrande Blvd Hurst, TX	2.0	2.0	1080	$1,862	$1.72	2d	1	0.86mi
10182 E Hurst Blvd Hurst, TX	2.0	2.0	915	$1,231	$1.35	18d	1	0.89mi
3078 W Sycamore Cir Euless, TX	2.0	1.5	1040	$1,475	$1.42	45d	1	0.89mi
11450 Trinity Blvd Euless, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1032	$2,060	$2.00	25d	169	0.91mi
1304 Raider Dr Euless, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	835	$1,285	$1.54	0d	12	0.91mi
1401 Sotogrande Blvd Euless, TX	3.0	2.0	1286	$1,875	$1.46	36d	1	0.92mi
1401 Sotogrande Blvd Euless, TX	1.0	2.0	1138	$1,489	$1.31	83d	1	0.92mi
1401 Sotogrande Blvd Euless, TX	1.0	1.0	751	$1,436	$1.91	90d	1	0.92mi
1401 Sotogrande Blvd Euless, TX	1.0	1.0	751	$1,145	$1.52	11d	1	0.92mi
1401 Sotogrande Blvd Euless, TX	2.0	2.0	1060	$1,321	$1.25	6d	1	0.92mi
1401 Sotogrande Blvd Euless, TX	2.0	2.0	1169	$1,950	$1.67	51d	1	0.92mi
1401 Sotogrande Blvd Euless, TX	2.0	2.0	934	$1,823	$1.95	31d	1	0.92mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-23
   days on market $165,000 Active 572 DOM
2. 2026-09-22
   days on market $165,000 Active 571 DOM
3. 2026-09-21
   days on market $165,000 Active 570 DOM
4. 2026-09-20
   days on market $165,000 Active 569 DOM
5. 2026-09-19
   days on market $165,000 Active 568 DOM
6. 2026-09-18
   days on market $165,000 Active 567 DOM
7. 2026-09-17
   days on market $165,000 Active 566 DOM
8. 2026-09-16
   days on market $165,000 Active 565 DOM
9. 2026-09-15
   days on market $165,000 Active 564 DOM
10. 2026-09-14
    days on market $165,000 Active 563 DOM
11. 2026-09-13
    days on market $165,000 Active 562 DOM
12. 2026-09-12
    days on market $165,000 Active 561 DOM
13. 2026-09-11
    days on market $165,000 Active 560 DOM
14. 2026-09-05
    days on market $165,000 Active 554 DOM
15. 2026-09-04
    days on market $165,000 Active 553 DOM
16. 2026-09-02
    days on market $165,000 Active 551 DOM
17. 2026-08-31
    days on market $165,000 Active 549 DOM
18. 2026-08-29
    days on market $165,000 Active 547 DOM
19. 2026-08-28
    days on market $165,000 Active 546 DOM
20. 2026-08-27
    days on market $165,000 Active 545 DOM
21. 2026-08-25
    days on market $165,000 Active 543 DOM
22. 2026-08-24
    days on market $165,000 Active 542 DOM
23. 2026-08-23
    days on market $165,000 Active 541 DOM
24. 2026-08-22
    days on market $165,000 Active 540 DOM
25. 2026-08-21
    days on market $165,000 Active 539 DOM
26. 2026-08-20
    days on market $165,000 Active 538 DOM
27. 2026-08-19
    days on market $165,000 Active 537 DOM
28. 2026-08-18
    days on market $165,000 Active 536 DOM
29. 2026-08-17
    days on market $165,000 Active 535 DOM
30. 2026-08-16
    days on market $165,000 Active 534 DOM
31. 2026-08-15
    days on market $165,000 Active 533 DOM
32. 2026-08-14
    days on market $165,000 Active 532 DOM
33. 2026-08-13
    days on market $165,000 Active 531 DOM
34. 2026-08-12
    days on market $165,000 Active 530 DOM
35. 2026-08-11
    days on market $165,000 Active 529 DOM
36. 2026-08-10
    days on market $165,000 Active 528 DOM
37. 2026-08-09
    days on market $165,000 Active 527 DOM
38. 2026-08-08
    days on market $165,000 Active 526 DOM
39. 2026-08-06
    days on market $165,000 Active 524 DOM
40. 2026-08-05
    days on market $165,000 Active 523 DOM
41. 2026-08-04
    days on market $165,000 Active 522 DOM
42. 2026-08-03
    days on market $165,000 Active 521 DOM
43. 2026-07-31
    days on market $165,000 Active 518 DOM
44. 2026-07-30
    days on market $165,000 Active 516 DOM
45. 2026-07-28
    days on market $165,000 Active 515 DOM
46. 2026-07-26
    days on market $165,000 Active 513 DOM
47. 2026-07-24
    days on market $165,000 Active 511 DOM
48. 2026-07-23
    days on market $165,000 Active 510 DOM
49. 2026-07-22
    days on market $165,000 Active 509 DOM
50. 2026-07-21
    days on market $165,000 Active 508 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,206
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,176
• − Property taxes: −$3,796
• − Insurance: −$1,265
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,537
• − Management: −$1,537
• − Depreciation: −$7,362
• Taxable loss: −$10,466
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,512
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,302/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $5,400–$16,200 screening

This home is in good condition with a modern kitchen and bathrooms, hardwood floors, and neutral paint. It has a good foundation and structure, and the roof and exterior siding appear to be in good condition. The home is located in a desirable neighborhood with easy access to amenities and schools.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint the exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and home value. ↑
• Rental Replace the ceiling fans — Modern ceiling fans can improve comfort and reduce energy costs. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 46/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Spring Garden El F TX #1,709/4,322 Nat'l #21,128/41,679 Middle Harwood J H B+ TX #145/1,662 Nat'l #1,667/14,009 High Trinity H S F TX #821/1,632 Nat'l #8,293/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hurst-Euless-Bedford ISD
• NCES district ID: 4824060
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $56,086
• Composite: 42.12/100
• National rank: #3316
• State rank: #193 of 826 in TX

A Composite livability gradescore 80/100

Livability — Fort Worth

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #49
• US rank: #1954

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fort Worth, TX
• County: Tarrant County · 2,380,417 people
• City population: 911,619
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 31,677
• Household income: $72,661
• Rent vs Own: 56.3% rent · 43.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 17% of renters

---

Population outlook (Tarrant County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,380,417 people
• By 2030: 2,578,900 · +8.3%
• By 2040: 2,974,995 · +25.0%
• By 2050: 3,350,489 · +40.8%
• By 2075: 4,216,909 · +77.2%
• By 2100: 4,741,527 · +99.2%

---

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.78)
• Race & ethnicity: White 31% Black 24% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 16% Asian 14% Pacific Islander 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Serbian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 27% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 59% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 8% Other Asian/Pacific 4%

---

Political lean MEDSL · Tarrant

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.1) · D 46.7% · R 51.9% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: -11.7pp · 2024: -5.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.1 2020: D+0.2 2016: R+8.7 2012: R+15.7 2008: R+11.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.82%
• Current HPI: 271.7474
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.62%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

---

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-03-01 Listed $165,000 Zillow