16401 San Pablo Ave #445 · Montalvin Manor, CA 94806

$155,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured · 59 Days on market

Built 1968 $108/sqft · at area comps Est $150k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +6.0/15.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Updated Mobile Home in Tara Hills Mobile Manor Senior Park • 2 Bedroom / 2 Bath 1,440 Sq Ft Recently Newly Renovated Home • Large Ceramic-Tiled Front Porch for Relaxing or Entertaining • Enjoy the Afternoon Breezes from the Golden Gate • Engineered Hardwood, Travertine & Ceramic Tile Flooring • Updated Baths with Quartz Vanity Tops & Ceramic Tile Flooring • Updated Kitchen with Wood Cabinets & Recessed Accent Lighting • New Stainless Cooktop, Microwave, Wall Oven & Dishwasher • Resort Style Living in the San Francisco Bay Area • Washer/Dryer, Freshly Painted & much more … • Community Amenities include: • Year-Round Heated Pool, Spa & Sauna • Community Center with Meeting Rooms, Kitchen • Library, Game Room & Activities • Close to Parks, Open Space, Hiking & Biking Trails • Easy Access to I-80, I-580, Hwy 4, BART & AMTRAK

Key facts

• Updated baths
• Updated kitchen
• Quartz vanity tops

Tags

• MANUFACTURED HARDWOOD FLOORING
• QUARTZ COUNTER TOPS
• UPDATED BATHS
• QUARTZ VANITY TOPS
• CERAMIC TILE FLOORING
• UPDATED KITCHEN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $155k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($16k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $155k).
• Recommended offer: $150k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#262 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, employment A; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F, health & safety F.
• West Contra Costa Unified (suburban): math 24% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #993 of 1,400 in CA (top 71%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 123 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,169 units permitted in Contra Costa County in 2024 (896 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($86k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Contra Costa County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.1% rent growth), your $43k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 59 days — a 3% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 19y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $22k; list at $155k implies a 589% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $150,350 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 59 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.96% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 36.69%
• DSCR: 2.63
• GRM: 4.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $150,000
• List price: $155,000
• Delta: 3.33%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 13 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16401 San Pablo Ave #413	0.08mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	11mo	$160,000	$111	87
16401 San Pablo Ave #429	0.07mi	2/2.0	1,368 (-5%)	3mo	$200,000	$146	86
16401 San Pablo Ave #338	0.08mi	2/2.0	1,400 (-3%)	8mo	$120,000	$86	85
16401 San Pablo Ave #433	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,428 (-1%)	11mo	$260,000	$182	84
16401 San Pablo Ave #280	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,320 (-8%)	2mo	$260,000	$197	84
16401 San Pablo Ave #263	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,248 (-13%)	8mo	$215,000	$172	71
16401 San Pablo Ave #131	0.07mi	2/2.0	1,368 (-5%)	22mo	$140,000	$102	70
16401 San Pablo Ave #349	0.08mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-7%)	24mo	$150,000	$112	65
16401 San Pablo Ave #103	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,286 (-11%)	23mo	$142,500	$111	63
16401 San Pablo Ave #344	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,248 (-13%)	17mo	$220,000	$176	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.06% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 32.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.37×
• Total profit: $59,625
• Equity at exit: $23,111

10-year hold

• IRR: 39.7%
• Equity multiple: 4.73×
• Total profit: $161,684
• Equity at exit: $13,402

Cash invested: $43,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94806

• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 123
• Price-to-rent: 4.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,036 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$813
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$194 /mo · $2,325/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$637
• Net cashflow: $1,327

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,356

Max offer price $155,000

Occupancy floor 51%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,750
• Closing costs: $4,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2633 Rim Rd San Pablo, CA	3.0	2.0	1187	$3,500	$2.95	44d	1	0.12mi
2689 Limerick Rd San Pablo, CA	3.0	2.0	1170	$3,650	$3.12	44d	1	0.59mi
2275 Cypress Ave San Pablo, CA	3.0	2.0	1204	$3,095	$2.57	17d	1	0.77mi
3400 Richmond Pkwy San Pablo, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	906	$2,417	$2.67	2d	67	0.83mi
2601 Hilltop Dr San Pablo, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	963	$3,279	$3.40	2d	21	0.99mi
530 Sunnyview Dr Pinole, CA	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	986	$2,199	$2.23	2d	16	1.30mi
3614 Stoneglen S San Pablo, CA	2.0	2.0	1176	$2,395	$2.04	44d	1	1.31mi
2131 Stanton Ave Unit F San Pablo, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$2,275	$2.53	5d	1	1.42mi
2131 Stanton Ave San Pablo, CA	2.0	1.0	950	$1,999	$2.10	44d	1	1.42mi
1588 Ridgecrest Rd Pinole, CA	3.0	2.0	1044	$3,050	$2.92	24d	1	1.46mi
3185 Garrity Way Richmond, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	967	$3,620	$3.74	2d	17	1.47mi
24 Park Ln El Sobrante, CA	2.0	1.5	1080	$3,200	$2.96	3d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $155,000 Active 59 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $155,000 Active 58 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $155,000 Active 57 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $155,000 Active 56 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $155,000 Active 54 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $155,000 Active 53 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $155,000 Active 50 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $155,000 Active 49 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $155,000 Active 48 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $155,000 Active 45 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $155,000 Active 44 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $155,000 Active 43 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $155,000 Active 42 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $155,000 Active 41 DOM
15. 2026-04-20
    listed $170,000 Active 950-char remark

    Show marketing remark (950 chars)

    Updated Mobile Home in Tara Hills Mobile Manor Senior Park • 2 Bedroom / 2 Bath 1,440 Sq Ft Recently Newly Renovated Home • Large Ceramic-Tiled Front Porch for Relaxing or Entertaining • Enjoy the Afternoon Breezes from the Golden Gate • Engineered Hardwood, Travertine & Ceramic Tile Flooring • Updated Baths with Quartz Vanity Tops & Ceramic Tile Flooring • Updated Kitchen with Wood Cabinets & Recessed Accent Lighting • New Stainless Cooktop, Microwave, Wall Oven & Dishwasher • Resort Style Living in the San Francisco Bay Area • Washer/Dryer, Freshly Painted & much more … • Community Amenities include: • Year-Round Heated Pool, Spa & Sauna • Community Center with Meeting Rooms, Kitchen • Library, Game Room & Activities • Close to Parks, Open Space, Hiking & Biking Trails • Easy Access to I-80, I-580, Hwy 4, BART & AMTRAK

16. 2012-08-22
    soldstatus $22,500 Sold 256-char remark

    Show marketing remark (256 chars)

    Artistically Designed Interior! Gleaming Floors,Tastefully Texturized Walls.Expansive Floor Plan With Lots of Natural Light.Updated,Gleaming Kitchen And Full Sized OutDoor Deck With Unique Slate Flooring For Recreation And Entertaining! A Spectacular Home!

17. 2012-08-15
    status Pending - Show for Backups 256-char remark

    Show marketing remark (256 chars)

    Artistically Designed Interior! Gleaming Floors,Tastefully Texturized Walls.Expansive Floor Plan With Lots of Natural Light.Updated,Gleaming Kitchen And Full Sized OutDoor Deck With Unique Slate Flooring For Recreation And Entertaining! A Spectacular Home!

18. 2012-07-07
    price $29,500 Price Change 256-char remark

    Show marketing remark (256 chars)

    Artistically Designed Interior! Gleaming Floors,Tastefully Texturized Walls.Expansive Floor Plan With Lots of Natural Light.Updated,Gleaming Kitchen And Full Sized OutDoor Deck With Unique Slate Flooring For Recreation And Entertaining! A Spectacular Home!

19. 2012-03-10
    price $34,500 Price Change 256-char remark

    Show marketing remark (256 chars)

    Artistically Designed Interior! Gleaming Floors,Tastefully Texturized Walls.Expansive Floor Plan With Lots of Natural Light.Updated,Gleaming Kitchen And Full Sized OutDoor Deck With Unique Slate Flooring For Recreation And Entertaining! A Spectacular Home!

20. 2011-11-16
    listed $39,900 New 256-char remark

    Show marketing remark (256 chars)

    Artistically Designed Interior! Gleaming Floors,Tastefully Texturized Walls.Expansive Floor Plan With Lots of Natural Light.Updated,Gleaming Kitchen And Full Sized OutDoor Deck With Unique Slate Flooring For Recreation And Entertaining! A Spectacular Home!

21. 2008-06-30
    price $60,000 Sold
22. 2008-06-30
    soldstatus $40,000 Sold
23. 2007-12-13
    historical
24. 2007-09-08
    listed $79,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥86°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 8/10 Severe 15 unhealthy d/yr today · 15 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,427
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,682
• − Property taxes: −$2,325
• − Insurance: −$775
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,914
• − Management: −$2,914
• − Depreciation: −$4,509
• Taxable income: $14,307
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,434
• After-tax cash flow: $12,489/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: West Contra Costa Unified
• NCES district ID: 0632550
• Math proficiency: 24% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $64,837
• Composite: 30.04/100
• National rank: #11623
• State rank: #993 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Montalvin Manor

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #262
• US rank: #8705

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime A- Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Montalvin Manor, CA
• County: Contra Costa County · 1,059,880 people
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 62,546
• Household income: $86,034
• Rent vs Own: 50.1% rent · 49.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 2830.0

Population outlook (Contra Costa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,287,720 people
• By 2030: 1,364,937 · +6.0%
• By 2040: 1,506,209 · +17.0%
• By 2050: 1,624,373 · +26.1%
• By 2075: 1,853,193 · +43.9%
• By 2100: 1,901,231 · +47.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 51% Two or more races 16% Asian 16% Black 13% White 12% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 34%
• Common ancestry: Estonian 2% Italian 1% Russian 1%
• Foreign-born: 38% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 39% English-only · Spanish 43% Other Indo-European 4% Tagalog/Filipino 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Contra Costa

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+38.0) · D 67.3% · R 29.4% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.2pp no change · 2008: 37.8pp · 2024: 38.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+38.0 2020: D+45.3 2016: D+43.5 2012: D+33.7 2008: D+37.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -665.89%
• Current HPI: 323.0082
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.06%
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+115.2% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Listed $170,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2012-08-22 Sold (MLS) $22,500 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2012-08-15 Pending — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2012-07-07 Price Changed $29,500 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2012-03-10 Price Changed $34,500 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2011-11-16 Listed $39,900 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2008-06-30 Sold (MLS) $40,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2008-06-30 Price Changed $60,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2007-12-13 Listing Removed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2007-09-08 Listed $79,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR

Property tax history

+0.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $211 · +1.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.