21456 Austin Rd · Covington, LA
Flood risk 1/10 · Minimal
- FEMA flood zone
- X
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.0%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $507 – $1,088
Fire risk 3/10 · Minor
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $1,269 – $2,357
Heat risk 9/10 · Severe
- Hot days now (above 108°F)
- 7 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 20 days/yr
Wind risk 9/10 · Severe
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- 99.0%
Air-quality risk 2/10 · Minimal
- Unhealthy air days now
- 0 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 1 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the B grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- Cash flow +30.0/30.0
- 1% rule +10.0/10.0
- DSCR +10.0/10.0
- ARV discount +7.5/15.0
- Schools +5.8/10.0
- Condition / age +4.0/5.0
- Livability +3.8/5.0
- Rent growth +2.5/5.0
- Appreciation +0.0/10.0
$105,000
21456 Austin Rd · Covington, LA 70435
3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,102 sqft · SingleFamily
· 186 Days on market
Built 1979
0.42 ac lot
$95/sqft
· 56% below area
🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks MLS
GREAT NEW PRICE!!! Enjoy quiet country living in this move-in ready 3 bedroom, 2 home. Fresh interior paint and durable tile and wood laminate flooring throughout - no carpet. Spacious layout with plenty of room to relax and enjoy the peaceful surroundings. Double insulated windows throughout. New metal roof installed over the original roof with Kool Seal reflective roof coating installed in 2026. Closed cell foam insulation installed underneath the raised portion of the house. All electric house with stove, refrigerator, and new dishwasher included. Water heater is 2 years old. This is a great opportunity for comfortable country living.
Key facts
- Quiet country living
- New metal roof
- All electric house
Tags
Neighborhood map
Sold within
Property
Rental comp
Retail
Costco
Walmart
Transit
Schools
Stadiums
Fortune 500
· Circle radius: 6.0 mi
Loading POIs…
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $105k. Condition is rated good.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $790 ($9k/yr) — positive.
- The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
- Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $105k).
- Recommended offer: $92k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
- Cap rate 15.3% vs local median 4.2% in Covington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 75/100 on livability (#17 in LA, #3,876 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
- St. Tammany Parish (suburban): math 43% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #11 of 98 in LA (top 11%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
- Zoned schools: Abita Springs Elementary School (math 57% / reading 72%, grade B, #40 of 646 statewide, top 7%, 672 students, 54% FRL); Fontainebleau Junior High School (math 38% / reading 62%, grade C, #26 of 218 statewide, top 12%, 877 students, 37% FRL); Fontainebleau High School (math 56% / reading 61%, grade C, #23 of 265 statewide, top 9%, 1,677 students, 33% FRL) — zoned schools at 41% FRL track the district average.
- Market conditions: 605 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,064 units permitted in St. Tammany Parish in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Forward outlook
- Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $726 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
- St. Tammany County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
- At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $29k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Negotiation context
- It's been on market 186 days — a 12% lower offer ($92k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
- 3 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (28%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Risks & watch-outs
- Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Recommended offer
$92,400
(12.0% below list)
Questions for the listing agent
- It's been on market 186 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
- Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
- Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 1.83% ✓
- Cap rate
- 15.32%
- Cash-on-cash
- 32.25%
- DSCR
- 2.44
- GRM
- 4.6
CMA / ARV
- ARV (median comp)
- $237,808
- List price
- $105,000
- Delta
- -55.85%
- Verdict
- UNDERPRICED
- Comps
- 3 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21546 Wilson Rd | 0.33mi | 3/2.0 | 1,307 (+19%) | 6mo | $239,900 | $184 | 55 |
| 72475 Jasmine St | 1.47mi | 4/2.0 (+1) | 1,200 (+9%) | 10mo | $80,500 | $67 | 37 |
| 73600 Military Rd | 1.10mi | 2/1.0 (-1) | 1,192 (+8%) | 9mo | $224,000 | $188 | 35 |
| 72543 Dahlia St | 1.33mi | 4/2.0 (+1) | 1,275 (+16%) | 4mo | $54,000 | $42 | 32 |
| 72514 Rose St | 1.40mi | 4/2.0 (+1) | 1,282 (+16%) | 4mo | $170,000 | $133 | 32 |
| 21238 Shady Ln | 0.82mi | 3/2.0 | 1,326 (+20%) | 12mo | $237,000 | $179 | 30 |
| 73583 Military Rd | 1.13mi | 2/2.0 (-1) | 906 (-18%) | 7mo | $320,000 | $353 | 29 |
| 21221 Fern St | 1.46mi | 4/2.0 (+1) | 1,282 (+16%) | 17mo | $100,000 | $78 | 21 |
| 73583 Highway 21 Hwy | 1.23mi | 2/2.0 (-1) | 906 (-18%) | 29mo | $250,000 | $276 | 15 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon
5-year hold
- IRR
- 27.3%
- Equity multiple
- 2.13×
- Total profit
- $33,345
- Equity at exit
- $15,656
10-year hold
- IRR
- 34.8%
- Equity multiple
- 4.20×
- Total profit
- $93,961
- Equity at exit
- $9,078
Cash invested: $29,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
- State Louisiana
- 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+12
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
5-day notice; no state rent control; civil-law jurisdiction; landlord-favorable.
ZIP-level market 70435
- Home prices YoY
- -27.3%
- Active inventory
- 605
- Price-to-rent
- 4.6×
Monthly cashflow live
↻
- Estimated rent
- $1,919 medium interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$551
- Tax est. 1.5%
- −$131 /mo · $1,575/yr
- Insurance
- −$44
- HOA
- −$0
- Lot rent
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$403
- Net cashflow
- $790
Break-even live
Break-even rent
$919
Max offer price
$105,000
Occupancy floor
54%
Sensitivity live
| Price | -10% $863 | -5% $827 | +0% $790 | +5% $754 | +10% $718 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rent | -10% $639 | -5% $714 | +0% $790 | +5% $866 | +10% $942 |
| Rate | -1.0pp $843 | -0.5pp $817 | base $790 | +0.5pp $763 | +1.0pp $735 |
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $26,250
- Closing costs
- $3,150
- Club membership (one-time)
- —
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Rent comps 1 comps
| Address | Beds | Baths | Sqft | Rent | $/sqft | DOM | Units | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 72475 Jasmine St Covington, LA | 4.0 | 2.0 | 1200 | $1,595 | $1.33 | 184d | 1 | 1.44mi |
Property features AI
Exterior
- Parking
- Driveway
- Utilities
- Public waterSeptic tank sewer
- Home design
- Single-storyRaised and slab foundationVery good condition
- Construction
- Vinyl sidingMetal roofBuilt with raised and slab foundation
- Exterior features
- Covered paver patio/porchIrregular lotOutside city limits
Interior
- Kitchen
- DishwasherOvenRangeRefrigerator
- Bedrooms
- 5 total rooms (bedroom count not specified)
- Bathrooms
- 2 full bathrooms
- Heating & cooling
- Central heatingCentral air conditioning
- Interior features
- Carbon monoxide detectorSmoke detector(s)
- Laundry & utility
- Washer hookupDryer hookup
Listing history 50 events
-
2026-10-09days on market $105,000 Active 186 DOM
-
2026-10-08statusdays on market $105,000 Active 185 DOM
-
2026-10-07days on market $105,000 Active Under Contract 184 DOM
-
2026-10-07days on market $105,000 Active Under Contract 183 DOM
-
2026-10-05days on market $105,000 Active Under Contract 182 DOM
-
2026-10-04days on market $105,000 Active Under Contract 181 DOM
-
2026-10-04days on market $105,000 Active Under Contract 180 DOM
-
2026-10-02days on market $105,000 Active Under Contract 179 DOM
-
2026-10-01days on market $105,000 Active Under Contract 178 DOM
-
2026-09-30days on market $105,000 Active Under Contract 177 DOM
-
2026-09-29days on market $105,000 Active Under Contract 176 DOM
-
2026-09-28days on market $105,000 Active Under Contract 175 DOM
-
2026-09-27days on market $105,000 Active Under Contract 174 DOM
-
2026-09-25days on market $105,000 Active Under Contract 172 DOM
-
2026-09-24days on market $105,000 Active Under Contract 171 DOM
-
2026-09-23days on market $105,000 Active Under Contract 170 DOM
-
2026-09-22days on market $105,000 Active Under Contract 169 DOM
-
2026-09-21days on market $105,000 Active Under Contract 168 DOM
-
2026-09-20days on market $105,000 Active Under Contract 167 DOM
-
2026-09-19days on market $105,000 Active Under Contract 166 DOM
-
2026-09-18days on market $105,000 Active Under Contract 165 DOM
-
2026-09-17days on market $105,000 Active Under Contract 164 DOM
-
2026-09-16days on market $105,000 Active Under Contract 163 DOM
-
2026-09-15days on market $105,000 Active Under Contract 162 DOM
-
2026-09-14days on market $105,000 Active Under Contract 161 DOM
-
2026-09-13days on market $105,000 Active Under Contract 160 DOM
-
2026-09-12days on market $105,000 Active Under Contract 159 DOM
-
2026-09-05days on market $105,000 Active Under Contract 152 DOM
-
2026-09-04days on market $105,000 Active Under Contract 151 DOM
-
2026-09-03days on market $105,000 Active Under Contract 150 DOM
-
2026-08-31days on market $105,000 Active Under Contract 147 DOM
-
2026-08-29days on market $105,000 Active Under Contract 145 DOM
-
2026-08-28days on market $105,000 Active Under Contract 144 DOM
-
2026-08-27days on market $105,000 Active Under Contract 143 DOM
-
2026-08-25days on market $105,000 Active Under Contract 141 DOM
-
2026-08-24days on market $105,000 Active Under Contract 140 DOM
-
2026-08-23days on market $105,000 Active Under Contract 139 DOM
-
2026-08-22days on market $105,000 Active Under Contract 138 DOM
-
2026-08-21days on market $105,000 Active Under Contract 137 DOM
-
2026-08-20days on market $105,000 Active Under Contract 136 DOM
-
2026-08-19days on market $105,000 Active Under Contract 135 DOM
-
2026-08-18days on market $105,000 Active Under Contract 134 DOM
-
2026-08-17days on market $105,000 Active Under Contract 133 DOM
-
2026-08-16days on market $105,000 Active Under Contract 132 DOM
-
2026-08-15statusdays on market $105,000 Active Under Contract 131 DOM
-
2026-08-14days on market $105,000 Active 130 DOM
-
2026-08-13days on market $105,000 Active 129 DOM
-
2026-08-12days on market $105,000 Active 128 DOM
-
2026-08-11days on market $105,000 Active 127 DOM
-
2026-08-10days on market $105,000 Active 126 DOM
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
- Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
- Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $23,026
- − Mortgage interest
- −$5,882
- − Property taxes
- −$1,575
- − Insurance
- −$525
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$1,842
- − Management
- −$1,842
- − Depreciation
- −$3,055
- Taxable income
- $8,305
combined federal + state — saved on this device
- Est. tax owed @ 24.0%
- −$1,993
- After-tax cash flow
- $7,489/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos
80/100
Cosmetic rehab
Est. rehab $5,510–$16,530 screening
This move-in ready home offers a good condition with fresh paint and durable flooring. It's well-maintained and ready for new owners to move in.
Value-add opportunities
- Resale Paint touch-ups — Fresh paint enhances the home's curb appeal and can make it more attractive to potential buyers. ↑
- Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve the home's curb appeal and increase its rental value. ↑
ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.
D
Composite school gradezoned avg 58/100
Zoned Schools
Elementary
Abita Springs Elementary School
B
LA #40/646
Nat'l #5,189/41,679
Middle
Fontainebleau Junior High School
C
LA #26/218
Nat'l #3,460/14,009
High
Fontainebleau High School
C
LA #23/265
Nat'l #3,934/17,239
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- St. Tammany Parish
- NCES district ID
- 2201650
- Math proficiency
- 43% ▼ -32.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 55% ▼ -26.00%
- Median HH income
- $61,752
- Composite
- 43.04/100
- National rank
- #3098
- State rank
- #11 of 98 in LA
B
Composite livability gradescore 75/100
Livability — Covington
- Score
- 75/100
- State rank
- #17
- US rank
- #3876
Category grades
Amenities F
Commute F
Cost of living B+
Crime A-
Employment A+
Housing A+
Health & safety A+
User ratings A+
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- County
- Saint Tammany Parish · 286,725 people
- City population
- 64,351
- Metro
- New Orleans-Metairie, LA
- Population (ZIP)
- 22,475
- Household income
- $80,926
- Rent vs Own
- Severe rent burden
- 3% of renters
Population outlook (St. Tammany County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 286,725 people
- By 2030
- 304,175 · +6.1%
- By 2040
- 336,203 · +17.3%
- By 2050
- 364,590 · +27.2%
- By 2075
- 433,362 · +51.1%
- By 2100
- 470,333 · +64.0%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Predominantly White (84%)
- Race & ethnicity
- White 84% Black 9% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Pacific Islander 2%
- Languages at home
- 97% English-only · Spanish 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%
Political lean MEDSL · St. Tammany
- 2024 margin
- Solid R (+43.8) · D 27.3% · R 71.1% · Other 1.6%
- 2008→2024 swing
- +9.6pp toward D · 2008: -53.4pp · 2024: -43.8pp
- All cycles
- 2024: R+43.8 2020: R+44.2 2016: R+50.8 2012: R+52.2 2008: R+53.4
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▼ -76.03%
- Current HPI
- 202.0458
- Rent YoY
- —
- Metro
- New Orleans-Metairie, LA
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 3.29%
- F500 in state
- 10
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Telecommunications | 2 | $23B |
|
||
| Utilities | 1 | $12B |
|
||
| Wholesale / Distribution | 1 | $5B |
|
||
| Advertising | 1 | $2B |
|
||
Price history
+12400.0% since first listed6 events — show timeline
- 2026-05-26 Price Changed $125,000 AcadianaMLS
- 2026-05-26 Price Changed $125,000 GSREIN
- 2026-03-31 Listed $145,000 GSREIN
- 2026-03-31 Listed $145,000 AcadianaMLS
- 2024-09-27 Rental Removed $1,000 GSREIN
- 2024-09-19 Listed for Rent $1,000 GSREIN
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…