1509 Centennial Cir · Forest Grove, OR 97116

$179,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,272 sqft · Manufactured public records · 200 Days on market

Built 1994 $141/sqft · at area comps Est $177k · at est.

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.3/30.0
• DSCR +7.2/10.0
• ARV discount +6.8/15.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover comfort and charm in this beautifully maintained 2-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home nestled in the highly sought-after 55+ Homestead Community. Built in 1994 and offering 1,272 sq. ft. of light-filled living space, this home features a vaulted living room, a bright, inviting kitchen, and a cozy dining area—perfect for gatherings with friends or quiet evenings in.Recent updates include a 5-year-old roof, new carpet, fresh countertops, and new interior and exterior paint, making this a truly move-in ready and low-maintenance home. Step outside to your private deck or patio and enjoy the serenity of this peaceful, friendly neighborhood where community spirit thrives.A covered carport, easy-care landscaping, and convenient Forest Grove location put everything you need just minutes away—shopping, dining, parks, and local amenities.Come see why so many love calling Homestead home—a perfect blend of comfort, convenience, and community!

Key facts

• Private deck
• Covered carport
• Convenient location

Tags

• PRIVATE DECK
• COVERED CARPORT
• EASY CARE LANDSCAPING
• CONVENIENT LOCATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $298 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $180k).
• Recommended offer: $158k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.3% vs local median 2.5% in Forest Grove — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#55 in OR, #1,748 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, cost of living D, amenities D-.
• Forest Grove SD 15 (suburban): math 32% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #111 of 183 in OR (top 61%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.0%/yr); 209 active listings in the ZIP; 26 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,224 units permitted in Washington County in 2024 (242 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Washington County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 200 days — a 12% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $67k; list at $180k implies a 169% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $158,312 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 200 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.28%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.09%
• DSCR: 1.32
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $177,250
• List price: $179,900
• Delta: 1.50%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 12 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1509 Centennial Cir	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,272 (0%)	0mo	$175,000	$138	100
1402 Pioneer Way	0.15mi	2/2.0	1,268 (-0%)	4mo	$189,000	$149	88
4413 Settlers Loop	0.04mi	2/2.0	1,304 (+2%)	13mo	$200,000	$153	83
1502 Frontier Cir	0.10mi	2/2.0	1,304 (+2%)	12mo	$192,000	$147	82
1300 Pioneer Way	0.21mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,300 (+2%)	12mo	$215,000	$165	72
4310 Frontier Way	0.19mi	2/2.0	1,152 (-9%)	13mo	$164,500	$143	65
4402 Wagon Wheel Cir	0.15mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,320 (+4%)	23mo	$179,000	$136	63
1209 Mountain View Dr	0.24mi	2/2.0	1,350 (+6%)	21mo	$315,000	$233	61
1404 Frontier Way	0.12mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+13%)	16mo	$240,000	$167	59
1302 Mountain View Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,454 (+14%)	23mo	$237,000	$163	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.69×
• Total profit: $-15,641
• Equity at exit: $26,824

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.80×
• Total profit: $-10,276
• Equity at exit: $15,554

Cash invested: $50,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97116

• Rents YoY: -0.0%
• Active inventory: 209
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,854 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$943
• Tax from tax record: −$148 /mo · $1,781/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$389
• Net cashflow: $298

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,477

Max offer price $179,900

Occupancy floor 79%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $400	-5% $349	+0% $298	+5% $247	+10% $196
Rent	-10% $151	-5% $224	+0% $298	+5% $371	+10% $444
Rate	-1.0pp $388	-0.5pp $343	base $298	+0.5pp $251	+1.0pp $204

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,975
• Closing costs: $5,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 26 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
313 S Nectarine St Cornelius, OR	3.0	2.0	1114	$2,295	$2.06	20d	1	0.28mi
4204 Pacific Ave Forest Grove, OR	2.0	1.0	900	$1,500	$1.67	2d	1	0.36mi
4300 Pacific Ave Forest Grove, OR	2.0	1.5	950	$1,645	$1.73	2d	5	0.37mi
184 S 5th Ave Unit 164 Cornelius, OR	2.0	1.5	1114	$1,795	$1.61	15d	1	0.44mi
3802 Pacific Ave Forest Grove, OR	2.0	1.0–2.0	945	$2,035	$2.15	2d	12	0.60mi
101 N 7th Ave Apt D Cornelius, OR	2.0	1.5	936	$1,545	$1.65	15d	1	0.63mi
101 N 7th Ave Unit C Cornelius, OR	2.0	1.5	936	$1,499	$1.60	22d	1	0.63mi
100 N 7th Ave Unit A Cornelius, OR	2.0	2.0	1015	$1,595	$1.57	21d	1	0.64mi
100 N 7th Ave Apt B Cornelius, OR	2.0	2.0	1015	$1,599	$1.58	15d	1	0.64mi
299 N 5th Pl Cornelius, OR	2.0	2.0	956	$1,900	$1.99	44d	1	0.65mi
110 N 7th Ave Apt C Cornelius, OR	2.0	2.0	1015	$1,749	$1.72	44d	1	0.66mi
120 N 7th Ave Unit D Cornelius, OR	2.0	2.0	1015	$1,699	$1.67	44d	1	0.66mi
110 N 7th Ave Apt A Cornelius, OR	2.0	2.0	1015	$1,609	$1.59	8d	1	0.66mi
1917 Poplar Pl Forest Grove, OR	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	929	$1,960	$2.11	2d	18	0.76mi
3404 19th Ave #215 Forest Grove, OR	2.0	1.0	900	$1,250	$1.39	2d	1	0.85mi
2095 S Heather St Cornelius, OR	3.0	2.5	1705	$2,695	$1.58	11d	1	1.21mi
2838 19th Ave Forest Grove, OR	3.0	2.0	1250	$2,500	$2.00	2d	1	1.23mi
2840 19th Ave Unit 7 Forest Grove, OR	3.0	2.5	1250	$2,500	$2.00	2d	1	1.24mi
2825 Pacific Ave Apt E Forest Grove, OR	2.0	1.5	1000	$1,600	$1.60	3d	1	1.31mi
889 N 18th Ave Cornelius, OR	3.0	2.5	1492	$2,395	$1.61	2d	1	1.39mi
2501 Carson Loop Forest Grove, OR	3.0	2.5	1617	$2,095	$1.30	2d	1	1.40mi
873 N 19th Ave Cornelius, OR	3.0	2.5	1396	$2,245	$1.61	2d	1	1.40mi
896 N 18th Ave Cornelius, OR	3.0	2.5	1519	$2,495	$1.64	17d	1	1.41mi
898 N 18th Ave Cornelius, OR	3.0	2.5	1417	$2,195	$1.55	2d	1	1.41mi
2737 Maywood Dr Forest Grove, OR	2.0	1.0	950	$2,095	$2.21	44d	1	1.41mi
2690 Kingwood St Forest Grove, OR	3.0	2.5	1550	$2,295	$1.48	11d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-05-17
   status Pending 970-char remark

   Show marketing remark (970 chars)

   Discover comfort and charm in this beautifully maintained 2-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home nestled in the highly sought-after 55+ Homestead Community. Built in 1994 and offering 1,272 sq. ft. of light-filled living space, this home features a vaulted living room, a bright, inviting kitchen, and a cozy dining area—perfect for gatherings with friends or quiet evenings in.Recent updates include a 5-year-old roof, new carpet, fresh countertops, and new interior and exterior paint, making this a truly move-in ready and low-maintenance home. Step outside to your private deck or patio and enjoy the serenity of this peaceful, friendly neighborhood where community spirit thrives.A covered carport, easy-care landscaping, and convenient Forest Grove location put everything you need just minutes away—shopping, dining, parks, and local amenities.Come see why so many love calling Homestead home—a perfect blend of comfort, convenience, and community!

2. 2026-04-19
   status Active 970-char remark

   Show marketing remark (970 chars)

   Discover comfort and charm in this beautifully maintained 2-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home nestled in the highly sought-after 55+ Homestead Community. Built in 1994 and offering 1,272 sq. ft. of light-filled living space, this home features a vaulted living room, a bright, inviting kitchen, and a cozy dining area—perfect for gatherings with friends or quiet evenings in.Recent updates include a 5-year-old roof, new carpet, fresh countertops, and new interior and exterior paint, making this a truly move-in ready and low-maintenance home. Step outside to your private deck or patio and enjoy the serenity of this peaceful, friendly neighborhood where community spirit thrives.A covered carport, easy-care landscaping, and convenient Forest Grove location put everything you need just minutes away—shopping, dining, parks, and local amenities.Come see why so many love calling Homestead home—a perfect blend of comfort, convenience, and community!

3. 2026-04-19
   price $179,900 970-char remark

   Show marketing remark (970 chars)

   Discover comfort and charm in this beautifully maintained 2-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home nestled in the highly sought-after 55+ Homestead Community. Built in 1994 and offering 1,272 sq. ft. of light-filled living space, this home features a vaulted living room, a bright, inviting kitchen, and a cozy dining area—perfect for gatherings with friends or quiet evenings in.Recent updates include a 5-year-old roof, new carpet, fresh countertops, and new interior and exterior paint, making this a truly move-in ready and low-maintenance home. Step outside to your private deck or patio and enjoy the serenity of this peaceful, friendly neighborhood where community spirit thrives.A covered carport, easy-care landscaping, and convenient Forest Grove location put everything you need just minutes away—shopping, dining, parks, and local amenities.Come see why so many love calling Homestead home—a perfect blend of comfort, convenience, and community!

4. 2026-04-14
   status Pending 970-char remark

   Show marketing remark (970 chars)

   Discover comfort and charm in this beautifully maintained 2-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home nestled in the highly sought-after 55+ Homestead Community. Built in 1994 and offering 1,272 sq. ft. of light-filled living space, this home features a vaulted living room, a bright, inviting kitchen, and a cozy dining area—perfect for gatherings with friends or quiet evenings in.Recent updates include a 5-year-old roof, new carpet, fresh countertops, and new interior and exterior paint, making this a truly move-in ready and low-maintenance home. Step outside to your private deck or patio and enjoy the serenity of this peaceful, friendly neighborhood where community spirit thrives.A covered carport, easy-care landscaping, and convenient Forest Grove location put everything you need just minutes away—shopping, dining, parks, and local amenities.Come see why so many love calling Homestead home—a perfect blend of comfort, convenience, and community!

5. 2026-03-26
   price $189,000 970-char remark

   Show marketing remark (970 chars)

   Discover comfort and charm in this beautifully maintained 2-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home nestled in the highly sought-after 55+ Homestead Community. Built in 1994 and offering 1,272 sq. ft. of light-filled living space, this home features a vaulted living room, a bright, inviting kitchen, and a cozy dining area—perfect for gatherings with friends or quiet evenings in.Recent updates include a 5-year-old roof, new carpet, fresh countertops, and new interior and exterior paint, making this a truly move-in ready and low-maintenance home. Step outside to your private deck or patio and enjoy the serenity of this peaceful, friendly neighborhood where community spirit thrives.A covered carport, easy-care landscaping, and convenient Forest Grove location put everything you need just minutes away—shopping, dining, parks, and local amenities.Come see why so many love calling Homestead home—a perfect blend of comfort, convenience, and community!

6. 2025-10-23
   listed $199,900 Active 970-char remark

   Show marketing remark (970 chars)

   Discover comfort and charm in this beautifully maintained 2-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home nestled in the highly sought-after 55+ Homestead Community. Built in 1994 and offering 1,272 sq. ft. of light-filled living space, this home features a vaulted living room, a bright, inviting kitchen, and a cozy dining area—perfect for gatherings with friends or quiet evenings in.Recent updates include a 5-year-old roof, new carpet, fresh countertops, and new interior and exterior paint, making this a truly move-in ready and low-maintenance home. Step outside to your private deck or patio and enjoy the serenity of this peaceful, friendly neighborhood where community spirit thrives.A covered carport, easy-care landscaping, and convenient Forest Grove location put everything you need just minutes away—shopping, dining, parks, and local amenities.Come see why so many love calling Homestead home—a perfect blend of comfort, convenience, and community!

7. 1994-11-11
   soldstatus $67,000
8. 1993-08-23
   soldstatus $46,048

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,781 · $148/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,781 · $148/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 13% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 9 unhealthy d/yr today · 10 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,245
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,077
• − Property taxes: −$1,781
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,780
• − Management: −$1,780
• − Depreciation: −$5,233
• Taxable income: $695
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$167
• After-tax cash flow: $3,406/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Forest Grove SD 15
• NCES district ID: 4105160
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $52,159
• Composite: 36.31/100
• National rank: #9395
• State rank: #111 of 183 in OR

Livability — Forest Grove

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #55
• US rank: #1748

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute A+ Cost of living D Crime C Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Forest Grove, OR
• County: Washington County · 583,254 people
• City population: 29,800
• Metro: Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA
• Population (ZIP): 29,800
• Household income: $92,613
• Rent vs Own: 33.6% rent · 66.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1124.0

Population outlook (Washington County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 674,042 people
• By 2030: 721,804 · +7.1%
• By 2040: 812,732 · +20.6%
• By 2050: 895,143 · +32.8%
• By 2075: 1,058,806 · +57.1%
• By 2100: 1,131,692 · +67.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Hispanic / Latino 27% Two or more races 12% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 24%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Portuguese 4% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 19%

Political lean MEDSL · Washington

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+34.0) · D 65.3% · R 31.3% · Other 3.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.8pp toward D · 2008: 22.1pp · 2024: 34.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+34.0 2020: D+34.6 2016: D+26.7 2012: D+17.5 2008: D+22.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -440.45%
• Current HPI: 286.6018
• Rent YoY: ▬ -0.02%
• Metro: Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

+290.7% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-17 Pending — RMLS
• 2026-04-19 Relisted — RMLS
• 2026-04-19 Price Changed $179,900 RMLS
• 2026-04-14 Pending — RMLS
• 2026-03-26 Price Changed $189,000 RMLS
• 2025-10-23 Listed $199,900 RMLS
• 1994-11-11 Sold (Public Records) $67,000 Public Records
• 1993-08-23 Sold (Public Records) $46,048 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,781 · +2.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.