309 Senter Dr · Keiser, AR 72370

$110,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,133 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 432 Days on market

Built 1989 0.26 ac lot Est $116k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.3/30.0
• ARV discount +9.7/15.0
• DSCR +6.4/10.0
• Appreciation +4.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Key facts

• 0.26 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1989

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached carport; Driveway; 1 covered space; 1 garage space (attached); 1 total parking space
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Natural gas available
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story
• Construction: Brick construction; Other roof
• Exterior features: No patio or porch; Lot approximately 0.26 acre

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range/oven; Range hood; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Tile
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Double-pane windows with blinds
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer connections; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $110k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $140 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $105k (4.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $97k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#355 in AR) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Rivercrest School District #57 (rural): math 32% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #128 of 238 in AR (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 29 active listings in the ZIP; 69 units permitted in Mississippi County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $24 of equity ($761 loan paydown + $-737 appreciation (-0.7% local appreciation)).
• Mississippi County population projected at -30% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-0.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 432 days — a 12% lower offer ($97k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $63k; list at $110k implies a 75% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $96,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 432 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.82%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.46%
• DSCR: 1.24
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $115,566
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
308 J T Polk Dr	0.18mi	3/1.0	1,032 (-9%)	8mo	$105,000	$102	70

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.67% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.07×
• Total profit: $2,262
• Equity at exit: $28,305

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.78×
• Total profit: $24,036
• Equity at exit: $31,242

Cash invested: $30,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72370

• Home prices YoY: -0.4%
• Active inventory: 29
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,051 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$577
• Tax from tax record: −$67 /mo · $805/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$221
• Net cashflow: $140

Break-even live

Break-even rent $873

Max offer price $110,000

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,500
• Closing costs: $3,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $110,000 Active 432 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $110,000 Active 431 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $110,000 Active 430 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $110,000 Active 429 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $110,000 Active 427 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $110,000 Active 424 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $110,000 Active 423 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $110,000 Active 422 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $110,000 Active 421 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $110,000 Active 417 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $110,000 Active 416 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $110,000 Active 415 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $110,000 Active 414 DOM
14. 2026-01-05
    status Active
15. 2025-07-08
    status Active
16. 2025-04-03
    listed $110,000 Active
17. 2008-03-14
    soldstatus $63,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $805 · $67/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $805 · $67/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 16% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,607
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,162
• − Property taxes: −$805
• − Insurance: −$550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,009
• − Management: −$1,009
• − Depreciation: −$3,200
• Taxable loss: −$128
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$31
• After-tax cash flow: $1,712/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rivercrest School District #57
• NCES district ID: 0500045
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $34,115
• Composite: 28.4/100
• National rank: #6764
• State rank: #128 of 238 in AR

Livability — Keiser

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #355
• US rank: #22000

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Keiser, AR
• City population: 796
• Population (ZIP): 7,282

Population outlook (Mississippi County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 38,959 people
• By 2030: 36,401 · -6.6%
• By 2040: 31,526 · -19.1%
• By 2050: 27,058 · -30.5%
• By 2075: 17,847 · -54.2%
• By 2100: 11,024 · -71.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 53% White 36% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Mississippi

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.6) · D 33.4% · R 65.0% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.4pp toward R · 2008: -2.2pp · 2024: -31.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.6 2020: R+22.2 2016: R+10.5 2012: R+1.1 2008: R+2.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.67%
• Current HPI: 178.93
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

+74.6% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-05 Relisted — EARA
• 2025-07-08 Relisted — EARA
• 2025-04-03 Listed $110,000 EARA
• 2008-03-14 Sold (Public Records) $63,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $805 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.