9485 Miller Rd · Gaines, MI 48473

$119,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 960 sqft · SingleFamily · 29 Days on market

Built 2000 2.15 ac lot Est $192k · 38% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great starter or investment home, 2 bedroom 1 bath home located just outside the city of Swartz Creek. 2.15 acre lot room enough for a garage or outbuilding. City water and sewer and ready for immediate occupancy.

Key facts

• 2.15 acre lot
• City water
• City sewer

Tags

• 2.15 ACRE LOT
• CITY WATER
• CITY SEWER

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association present

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story
• Construction: Aluminum siding
• Exterior features: Paved road access; Publicly maintained road; Lot dimensions approximately 123 x 332 x 124 x 333; Approximately 2.15 acres

Interior

• Kitchen: Oven; Range; Refrigerator
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Steam heating; Ceiling fan(s); Window unit(s) for cooling
• Interior features: Gas water heater; Crawl space basement with sump pump
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $180 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $118k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 2.7% in Gaines — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#583 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, employment D, crime F.
• Swartz Creek Community Schools (suburban): math 23% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #298 of 540 in MI (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 166 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 419 units permitted in Genesee County in 2024 (68 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $829 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Genesee County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($118k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $80k (40%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $118,101 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.09%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.43%
• DSCR: 1.29
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $192,000
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5071 Joy Dr	0.25mi	2/1.0	1,008 (+5%)	13mo	$202,000	$200	69
5145 Seymour Rd	0.68mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,008 (+5%)	24mo	$145,000	$144	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.76×
• Total profit: $-7,962
• Equity at exit: $17,877

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.23×
• Total profit: $7,848
• Equity at exit: $10,367

Cash invested: $33,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48473

• Active inventory: 166
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,249 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$128 /mo · $1,538/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$262
• Net cashflow: $180

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,021

Max offer price $119,900

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,975
• Closing costs: $3,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4498 S Van Vleet Rd Swartz Creek, MI	2.0	1.0	800	$800	$1.00	43d	1	0.14mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $119,900 Active 29 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   price $119,900 Active 28 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,900 Active 28 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,900 Active 27 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,900 Active 26 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $199,900 Active 24 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,900 Active 23 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $199,900 Active 21 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,900 Active 20 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $199,900 Active 19 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $199,900 Active 18 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $199,900 Active 15 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,900 Active 13 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,900 Active 12 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,900 Active 11 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $199,900 Active 10 DOM
17. 2026-05-19
    listed $199,900 Active 213-char remark

    Show marketing remark (213 chars)

    Great starter or investment home, 2 bedroom 1 bath home located just outside the city of Swartz Creek. 2.15 acre lot room enough for a garage or outbuilding. City water and sewer and ready for immediate occupancy.

18. 2026-05-19
    listed $199,900 Active

    Show marketing remark (213 chars)

    Great starter or investment home, 2 bedroom 1 bath home located just outside the city of Swartz Creek. 2.15 acre lot room enough for a garage or outbuilding. City water and sewer and ready for immediate occupancy.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,538 · $128/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,692 · $141/mo
• Expected delta: +$154/yr (+$13/mo · 10.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,991
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,716
• − Property taxes: −$1,538
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,199
• − Management: −$1,199
• − Depreciation: −$3,488
• Taxable income: $250
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$60
• After-tax cash flow: $2,100/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Swartz Creek Community Schools
• NCES district ID: 2633420
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $53,586
• Composite: 29.37/100
• National rank: #6530
• State rank: #298 of 540 in MI

Livability — Gaines

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #583
• US rank: #18809

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Genesee County · 221,329 people
• City population: 26,427
• Metro: Flint, MI
• Population (ZIP): 22,339
• Household income: $77,921
• Rent vs Own: 15.4% rent · 84.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 310.0

Population outlook (Genesee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 381,312 people
• By 2030: 362,731 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 321,550 · -15.7%
• By 2050: 279,212 · -26.8%
• By 2075: 193,336 · -49.3%
• By 2100: 128,118 · -66.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Lithuanian 4% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Genesee

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 51.4% · R 47.2% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.3pp toward R · 2008: 32.5pp · 2024: 4.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+4.2 2020: D+9.3 2016: D+9.5 2012: D+28.2 2008: D+32.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -216.16%
• Current HPI: 208.5281
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Flint, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Listed $199,900 REALCOMP
• 2026-05-19 Listed $199,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS

Property tax history

-1.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,538 · -17.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.