169 Birch Ave S · Lehigh Acres, FL 33974

$274,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,258 sqft · Land · 210 Days on market

Built 2025 0.30 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +9.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.3/5.0

Listing remarks

BRAND NEW HOME ON AN OVERSIZED 1/3 ACRE LOT! You Will Be Amazed By The Quality Of This Brand New Construction 3 Bedroom/2 Bathroom Home With Eastern Exposure For Those Beautiful Florida Sunrises All On An Oversized 1/3 Acre Lot In Lehigh Acres, FL. This Home Has 1258 SF Under Air And It Is COMPLETELY Finished! You Can Move Into It Today Or Use It As A Cash Flowing Rental Unit (High Demand). The Gourmet Kitchen Comes With Quartz Countertops, STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES, Real Wood Shaker SOFT TOUCH Cabinet Doors & Drawers, Glass Tile Backsplash, Floor To Ceiling Pantry, And A Large Breakfast Bar. Other Upgrades Include; FREE BRAND NEW WASHER AND DRYER WITH PURCHASE OF THIS PROPERTY, HURR

Key facts

• Eastern exposure
• Quartz countertops
• Gourmet kitchen

Tags

• OVERSIZED LOT
• EASTERN EXPOSURE
• GOURMET KITCHEN
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• SOFT TOUCH CABINET DOORS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $275k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-216 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $244k (11.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $213k (22.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $213k (22.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#826 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+, schools D-.
• Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-4.7%/yr); 2460 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($72k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $29k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $27k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$47k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 210 days — a 12% lower offer ($242k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $8k; list at $275k implies a 3134% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $213,121 (22.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 210 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.35%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.37%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.69×
• Total profit: $129,740
• Equity at exit: $247,652

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.4%
• Equity multiple: 5.96×
• Total profit: $381,767
• Equity at exit: $534,070

Cash invested: $76,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33974

• Home prices YoY: 5.8%
• Rents YoY: -4.7%
• Active inventory: 2460
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,131 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$344 /mo · $4,124/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$448
• Net cashflow: $-216

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,405

Max offer price $243,628

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-26	-5% $-121	+0% $-216	+5% $-311	+10% $-406
Rent	-10% $-384	-5% $-300	+0% $-216	+5% $-132	+10% $-48
Rate	-1.0pp $-78	-0.5pp $-146	base $-216	+0.5pp $-287	+1.0pp $-360

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,725
• Closing costs: $8,247
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
940 Belmont St E Lehigh Acres, FL	4.0	2.0	1838	$2,850	$1.55	24d	1	0.20mi
912 Anthony St E Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.5	1548	$1,890	$1.22	16d	1	0.26mi
232 Fowler Ave Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1582	$2,664	$1.68	24d	1	0.65mi
101 Edward Ave Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1531	$3,200	$2.09	24d	1	0.79mi
1440 Graham Cir Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1767	$2,300	$1.30	24d	1	0.81mi
219 Beckley Dr Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.5	1548	$1,890	$1.22	16d	1	0.91mi
129 Wanatah Ave Lehigh Acres, FL	4.0	2.0	1798	$1,911	$1.06	4d	1	0.92mi
815 Porter St E Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1659	$1,800	$1.08	24d	1	1.00mi
1122 Randolph St Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1550	$2,100	$1.35	24d	1	1.02mi
333 Bell Blvd S Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1114	$1,300	$1.17	4d	1	1.04mi
444 Genoa Ave S Lehigh Acres, FL	4.0	2.0	1389	$1,750	$1.26	22d	1	1.07mi
230 E Malden Ave S Lehigh Acres, FL	4.0	2.0	1833	$1,875	$1.02	24d	1	1.08mi
1125 Chipley St Unit 1 Lehigh Acres, FL	2.0	1.0	950	$1,350	$1.42	4d	1	1.08mi
350 Limerick Ave S Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1199	$1,800	$1.50	4d	1	1.08mi
947 Grant Blvd Lehigh Acres, FL	4.0	2.0	1650	$2,145	$1.30	24d	1	1.08mi
119 Wellington Ave Lehigh Acres, FL	4.0	3.0	1822	$3,200	$1.76	2d	1	1.11mi
382 McArthur Blvd Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1055	$2,200	$2.09	24d	1	1.11mi
346 Bell Blvd S Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1185	$1,495	$1.26	4d	1	1.12mi
346 Bell Blvd S Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1185	$1,495	$1.26	15d	1	1.12mi
311 Inman St Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1604	$2,300	$1.43	24d	1	1.18mi
718 Sunrise Blvd Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,610	$1.46	24d	1	1.18mi
825 Carbon St E Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1582	$2,300	$1.45	24d	1	1.18mi
1406 Ford Cir Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.5	1662	$2,100	$1.26	24d	1	1.19mi
759 Cane St E Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1169	$1,950	$1.67	4d	1	1.21mi
388 Bell Blvd S Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,780	$1.48	24d	1	1.23mi
18 Scott Ave Lehigh Acres, FL	4.0	3.0	1822	$3,200	$1.76	2d	1	1.24mi
719 Center Lake St Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1616	$1,750	$1.08	24d	1	1.28mi
750 Cane St E Lehigh Acres, FL	4.0	3.0	1537	$2,800	$1.82	4d	1	1.28mi
321 Dania St Lehigh Acres, FL	2.0	2.0	915	$1,800	$1.97	24d	1	1.29mi
198 Joel Blvd #6 Lehigh Acres, FL	2.0	2.0	1036	$1,200	$1.16	3d	1	1.33mi
327 Lester Ave S Lehigh Acres, FL	4.0	2.0	1577	$2,195	$1.39	2d	1	1.35mi
201 Fireside Ct Lehigh Acres, FL	2.0	2.0	1370	$1,550	$1.13	3d	1	1.39mi
201 Fireside Ct Unit N/A Lehigh Acres, FL	2.0	2.0	1370	$1,675	$1.22	3d	1	1.39mi
727 Cane St E Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1582	$2,000	$1.26	24d	1	1.41mi
333 Joel Blvd Lehigh Acres, FL	2.0	1.0–2.0	877	$1,048	$1.19	16d	2	1.41mi
455 Bell Blvd Unit 1 Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1142	$1,600	$1.40	24d	1	1.42mi
459 Lockport Ave S Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1650	$2,000	$1.21	24d	1	1.43mi
343 Joel Blvd #111 Lehigh Acres, FL	2.0	2.0	921	$900	$0.98	24d	1	1.44mi
322 Edward Ave Lehigh Acres, FL	2.0	2.0	1347	$1,400	$1.04	4d	1	1.46mi
442 Genoa Ave S Lehigh Acres, FL	4.0	2.0	1365	$1,750	$1.28	4d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-04-16
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-16
   price $274,900
3. 2026-04-11
   price $259,900
4. 2026-04-04
   price $264,800
5. 2026-03-25
   price $264,900
6. 2026-03-11
   price $269,900
7. 2026-03-06
   price $273,900
8. 2026-02-27
   price $274,400
9. 2026-01-21
   price $274,900
10. 2025-12-12
    price $279,900
11. 2025-11-22
    price $283,900
12. 2025-10-24
    price $284,800
13. 2025-09-18
    listed $284,900 Active
14. 2021-07-01
    soldstatus $8,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,575
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,399
• − Property taxes: −$4,124
• − Insurance: −$1,374
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,046
• − Management: −$2,046
• − Depreciation: −$7,997
• Taxable loss: −$7,411
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,779
• After-tax cash flow: $-815/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lee
• NCES district ID: 1201080
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,518
• Composite: 41.49/100
• National rank: #3458
• State rank: #42 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lehigh Acres

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #826
• US rank: #20055

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lehigh Acres, FL
• County: Lee County · 788,662 people
• City population: 130,638
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• Population (ZIP): 19,927
• Household income: $72,192
• Rent vs Own: 27.3% rent · 72.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 434.0

Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 871,946 people
• By 2030: 955,468 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 1,113,587 · +27.7%
• By 2050: 1,256,891 · +44.1%
• By 2075: 1,560,270 · +78.9%
• By 2100: 1,726,848 · +98.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 52% Two or more races 31% White 26% Black 18%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12% Puerto Rican 7% Cuban 20% Dominican 4%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 7% Italian 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 32% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 48% English-only · Spanish 43% French/Haitian/Cajun 7% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.4) · D 35.5% · R 63.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.0pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.4 2020: R+19.2 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+16.6 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 16.53%
• Current HPI: 303.3399
• Rent YoY: ▼ -4.68%
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+3134.1% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Pending — FORTMLS
• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $274,900 FORTMLS
• 2026-04-11 Price Changed $259,900 FORTMLS
• 2026-04-04 Price Changed $264,800 FORTMLS
• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $264,900 FORTMLS
• 2026-03-11 Price Changed $269,900 FORTMLS
• 2026-03-06 Price Changed $273,900 FORTMLS
• 2026-02-27 Price Changed $274,400 FORTMLS
• 2026-01-21 Price Changed $274,900 FORTMLS
• 2025-12-12 Price Changed $279,900 FORTMLS
• 2025-11-22 Price Changed $283,900 FORTMLS
• 2025-10-24 Price Changed $284,800 FORTMLS
• 2025-09-18 Listed $284,900 FORTMLS
• 2021-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $8,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+11.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $425 · +9.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.