12215 E 37th St · Fortuna Foothills, AZ 85367

$155,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 672 sqft · Manufactured public records · 26 Days on market

Built 1996 Est $143k · 8% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.3/30.0
• DSCR +5.8/10.0
• ARV discount +3.8/15.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Fully furnished, fenced and gated lot in Yuma foothills. gas, electricity, water and trash paid by renter. Winter snow bird rate. 3 month minimum,

Key facts

• Yuma foothills
• Fenced and gated lot
• Built 1996

Tags

• FENCED AND GATED LOT
• YUMA FOOTHILLS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Home design: Built in 1996; Single-story mobile/manufactured home
• Construction: Living area approximately 840
• Exterior features: Located in Foothills Mobile Estates

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $155k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $142 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $134k (13.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $134k (13.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 4.2% in Fortuna Foothills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#174 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, schools F, crime F.
• Yuma Union High School District (4507) (urban): math 14% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #212 of 249 in AZ (top 85%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.5%/yr); 416 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,399 units permitted in Yuma County in 2024 (180 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Yuma County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($153k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $16k; list at $155k implies a 900% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 5→13/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $134,361 (13.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.94%
• DSCR: 1.18
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $143,136
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12273 E 38 St	0.12mi	2/1.0	672 (0%)	5mo	$143,000	$213	90
12275 E 37 St	0.08mi	1/1.5 (-1)	710 (+6%)	2mo	$180,000	$254	78
12475 E 39 Way	0.42mi	2/2.0	666 (-1%)	4mo	$150,000	$225	72
12226 E 39 St	0.16mi	1/1.0 (-1)	630 (-6%)	14mo	$169,000	$268	66
11480 S Maria Rosa Dr	0.24mi	1/1.0 (-1)	610 (-9%)	5mo	$80,000	$131	64
11673 S Sandra Ave	0.53mi	2/1.0	672 (0%)	14mo	$95,000	$141	64
11444 S Bonnie Ave	0.30mi	2/1.0	731 (+9%)	12mo	$143,000	$196	62
12439 E 38 Pl	0.31mi	2/2.0	588 (-12%)	4mo	$157,500	$268	58
12461 E Tanja Dr	0.66mi	1/1.0 (-1)	704 (+5%)	9mo	$126,500	$180	48
11832 S Pamela Ln	0.44mi	2/1.0	768 (+14%)	9mo	$200,000	$260	48
12558 E 36 St Unit 12558 E 36TH ST	0.49mi	2/2.0	752 (+12%)	14mo	$140,000	$186	42
11714 S Renee Ave	0.41mi	3/1.5 (+1)	770 (+15%)	13mo	$130,000	$169	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.46% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.67×
• Total profit: $-14,120
• Equity at exit: $23,111

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.17×
• Total profit: $7,549
• Equity at exit: $13,402

Cash invested: $43,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85367

• Home prices YoY: -26.2%
• Rents YoY: 4.5%
• Active inventory: 416
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,344 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$813
• Tax from tax record: −$42 /mo · $500/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$282
• Net cashflow: $142

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,163

Max offer price $155,000

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $230	-5% $186	+0% $142	+5% $99	+10% $55
Rent	-10% $36	-5% $89	+0% $142	+5% $195	+10% $249
Rate	-1.0pp $220	-0.5pp $182	base $142	+0.5pp $102	+1.0pp $61

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,750
• Closing costs: $4,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11436 S Clara Anita Dr Yuma, AZ	1.0	1.0	407	$975	$2.40	14d	1	0.32mi
12338 E 34th Pl Yuma, AZ	1.0	1.0	396	$1,500	$3.79	14d	1	0.47mi
13292 E 41st St Yuma, AZ	1.0	1.0	700	$1,195	$1.71	14d	1	1.19mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $155,000 Active 26 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $155,000 Active 24 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $155,000 Active 23 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $155,000 Active 22 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $155,000 Active 21 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $155,000 Active 20 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $155,000 Active 18 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $155,000 Active 17 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $155,000 Active 15 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $155,000 Active 14 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $155,000 Active 13 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $155,000 Active 12 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $155,000 Active 9 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $155,000 Active 7 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $155,000 Active 6 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $155,000 Active 5 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $155,000 Active 4 DOM
18. 2026-05-26
    listed $155,000 Active
19. 1993-01-27
    soldstatus $15,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $500 · $42/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,023 · $85/mo
• Expected delta: +$523/yr (+$44/mo · 104.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 5 d/yr ≥113°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,123
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,682
• − Property taxes: −$500
• − Insurance: −$775
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,290
• − Management: −$1,290
• − Depreciation: −$4,509
• Taxable loss: −$923
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$221
• After-tax cash flow: $1,930/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Yuma Union High School District (4507)
• NCES district ID: 0409630
• Math proficiency: 14% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 16% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $40,512
• Composite: 12.86/100
• National rank: #9592
• State rank: #212 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Fortuna Foothills

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #174
• US rank: #18663

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fortuna Foothills, AZ
• County: Yuma County · 149,809 people
• City population: 21,356
• Metro: Yuma, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 22,074
• Household income: $58,469
• Rent vs Own: 16.8% rent · 83.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 408.0

Population outlook (Yuma County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 211,633 people
• By 2030: 214,114 · +1.2%
• By 2040: 217,856 · +2.9%
• By 2050: 220,276 · +4.1%
• By 2075: 222,359 · +5.1%
• By 2100: 198,880 · -6.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 11% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 16% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Yuma

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.4) · D 39.3% · R 59.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.6pp toward R · 2008: -13.8pp · 2024: -20.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.4 2020: R+6.2 2016: R+5.5 2012: R+16.1 2008: R+13.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -80.81%
• Current HPI: 227.2692
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.46%
• Metro: Yuma, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+900.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $155,000 FSBO.com
• 1993-01-27 Sold (Public Records) $15,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $500 · +3.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.