7911 Pine Green Ln · Atascocita, TX 77346

$325,000

5 bd · 3.5 ba · 3,300 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 31 Days on market

Built 1973 10,798 sqft lot Est $403k · 19% under $54/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 23% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.8/10.0
• 1% rule +7.0/10.0
• Appreciation +4.5/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 7911 Pine Green Lane! This beautifully maintained home offers 5 bedrooms, 3.5 baths, and a functional layout designed for comfortable living and entertaining. Upon entry, you’ll find two spacious living areas and a formal dining room perfect for gatherings. The kitchen offers plenty of space and is ready for your personal touch. The downstairs primary suite features an additional flex space ideal for a home office or gym, along with an en-suite bath ready to be customized to your style. Upstairs, enjoy brand-new carpet, 4 spacious secondary bedrooms, and 2 full baths. Step outside into your oversized backyard perfect for entertaining, plus a 3-car garage with ample storage.

Key facts

• Formal dining room
• Flex space
• 3 car garage

Tags

• TWO SPACIOUS LIVING AREAS
• FORMAL DINING ROOM
• DOWNSTAIRS PRIMARY SUITE
• FLEX SPACE
• OVERSIZED BACKYARD
• 3 CAR GARAGE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Full ownership
• HOA & community: Atascocita Community Improvement association; Annual association fee of $650; Association covers common areas and recreation facilities

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; 3 garage spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Full ownership; Slab foundation
• Construction: Built in 1973; Brick and vinyl siding exterior; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Corner lot in a subdivision; Concrete road access; Community pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Double oven; Electric cooktop; Electric oven; Dishwasher; Disposal
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: Three full bathrooms; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Wet bar; Double vanity; Laminate counters; Pantry; Tub with shower; Gas log fireplace; Low emissivity windows
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $325k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $641 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $325k).
• Recommended offer: $315k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.7% vs local median 4.0% in Atascocita — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#346 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Humble ISD (urban): math 38% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #262 of 826 in TX (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Pineforest El (math 32% / reading 41%, grade F, #1,883 of 4,322 statewide, top 44%, 609 students, 49% FRL); Atascocita Middle (math 35% / reading 40%, grade F, #736 of 1,662 statewide, top 45%, 1,027 students, 50% FRL); Atascocita H S (math 41% / reading 52%, grade D-, #621 of 1,632 statewide, top 38%, 3,829 students, 42% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 681 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($122k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-0.9%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($315k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $315,250 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.20% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.66%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.45%
• DSCR: 1.38
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $402,600
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
19510 Evening Shades Ct	0.39mi	5/3.0	3,165 (-4%)	1mo	$380,000	$120	72
19702 Sweet Forest Ln	0.12mi	5/2.5	2,828 (-14%)	0mo	$299,900	$106	66
8335 Bunker Bend Dr	0.49mi	4/2.5 (-1)	3,423 (+4%)	2mo	$370,000	$108	60
7627 Water Wood Trl	0.55mi	5/3.5	3,028 (-8%)	1mo	$519,000	$171	60
8503 Rebawood Dr	0.67mi	4/3.5 (-1)	3,471 (+5%)	0mo	$279,000	$80	55
7403 Marvel Oak Ct	0.73mi	4/3.5 (-1)	3,102 (-6%)	1mo	$330,000	$106	50
20115 Hickory Wind Dr	0.42mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,875 (-13%)	2mo	$385,000	$134	48
19718 Powerscourt Dr	0.55mi	4/4.5 (-1)	3,643 (+10%)	1mo	$445,000	$122	47
8503 Pines Place Dr	0.59mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,826 (-14%)	2mo	$139,000	$49	42
19906 Texas Laurel Trl	0.75mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,836 (-14%)	1mo	$375,000	$132	36
20403 Atascocita Shores Dr	0.69mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,805 (-15%)	2mo	$344,900	$123	34
7414 Crown Maples	0.73mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,870 (-13%)	2mo	$404,300	$141	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.95% appreciation · 0.09% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.07×
• Total profit: $6,146
• Equity at exit: $79,167

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.47×
• Total profit: $42,985
• Equity at exit: $83,742

Cash invested: $91,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77346

• Home prices YoY: -0.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 681
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,886 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,704
• Tax from tax record: −$535 /mo · $6,418/yr
• Insurance: −$135
• HOA: −$54
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$816
• Net cashflow: $641

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,074

Max offer price $325,000

Occupancy floor 78%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $825	-5% $733	+0% $641	+5% $549	+10% $457
Rent	-10% $334	-5% $488	+0% $641	+5% $795	+10% $948
Rate	-1.0pp $805	-0.5pp $724	base $641	+0.5pp $557	+1.0pp $471

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $81,250
• Closing costs: $9,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
19603 Fairway Island Dr Humble, TX	5.0	2.5	3329	$6,500	$1.95	25d	1	0.37mi
19706 Water Point Trl Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	2753	$2,550	$0.93	25d	1	0.83mi
19119 Sprintwood Ct Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	2487	$2,425	$0.98	23d	1	0.98mi
20823 Water Point Trl Humble, TX	4.0	3.5	2550	$2,525	$0.99	23d	1	1.25mi
20906 Greenfield Trl Humble, TX	4.0	3.0	2603	$2,200	$0.85	45d	1	1.35mi
20914 Lake Park Trl Humble, TX	5.0	2.5	2462	$2,460	$1.00	6d	1	1.41mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $54 · $648/yr
• Likely covers: gym

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $325,000 Active 31 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $325,000 Active 28 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $325,000 Active 27 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $325,000 Active 26 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $325,000 Active 25 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $325,000 Active 23 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $325,000 Active 22 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   price $325,000 Active 19 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $330,000 Active 19 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $330,000 Active 18 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $330,000 Active 17 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $330,000 Active 14 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $330,000 Active 13 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $330,000 Active 12 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $330,000 Active 11 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $330,000 Active 10 DOM
17. 2026-05-21
    price $330,000
18. 2026-05-21
    listed $430,000 Active
19. 2012-06-08
    soldstatus
20. 1999-03-11
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,418 · $535/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,418 · $535/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $46,627
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,205
• − Property taxes: −$6,418
• − Insurance: −$1,625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,730
• − Management: −$3,730
• − HOA: −$648
• − Depreciation: −$9,455
• Taxable income: $2,816
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$676
• After-tax cash flow: $7,017/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Humble ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823910
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $83,946
• Composite: 38.55/100
• National rank: #4171
• State rank: #262 of 826 in TX

Livability — Atascocita

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #346
• US rank: #7586

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Atascocita, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 79,538
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 79,538
• Household income: $122,241
• Rent vs Own: 18.3% rent · 81.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1072.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 42% Hispanic / Latino 28% Black 21% Two or more races 18% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Current HPI: 218.0478
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.09%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-23.3% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Price Changed $330,000 HARMLS
• 2026-05-21 Listed $430,000 HARMLS
• 2012-06-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1999-03-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+7.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,418 · +3.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.