1401 E Paige Ave #34 · Tulare, CA 93274

$45,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Land · 40 Days on market

Built 1978

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to space 34 in a beautifully maintained, 55 and over park! This vintage gem is move in ready and has been maintained wonderfully throughout the years by the owners. This double wide features 3 spacious bedrooms, 2 full baths, a den, eat in kitchen, formal dining room with built in hutch and oversized living room. There is plenty of storage and plenty of space to stretch out enjoy life! Call today for your private showing.

Key facts

• Built 1978
• Listed 40 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $45k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $45k).
• Recommended offer: $44k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 39.6% vs local median 3.3% in Tulare — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#701 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: commute C-, employment D+, schools D-.
• Tulare Joint Union High (suburban): math 18% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #280 of 517 in CA (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.7%/yr); 355 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,447 units permitted in Tulare County in 2024 (307 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($73k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $311 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tulare County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.7% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($44k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $43,650 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.39% ✓
• Cap rate: 39.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 118.91%
• DSCR: 6.29
• GRM: 1.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.67% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 6.68×
• Total profit: $71,605
• Equity at exit: $6,710

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 13.87×
• Total profit: $162,205
• Equity at exit: $3,891

Cash invested: $12,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93274

• Rents YoY: 2.7%
• Active inventory: 355
• Price-to-rent: 1.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,974 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$236
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$56 /mo · $675/yr
• Insurance: −$19
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$415
• Net cashflow: $1,249

Break-even live

Break-even rent $394

Max offer price $45,000

Occupancy floor 32%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,280	-5% $1,264	+0% $1,249	+5% $1,233	+10% $1,217
Rent	-10% $1,093	-5% $1,171	+0% $1,249	+5% $1,327	+10% $1,404
Rate	-1.0pp $1,271	-0.5pp $1,260	base $1,249	+0.5pp $1,237	+1.0pp $1,225

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,250
• Closing costs: $1,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1860 Henshaw Ave Unit 1886 Tulare, CA	2.0	2.0	988	$1,450	$1.47	22d	1	0.49mi
1840 S Sundance St Tulare, CA	3.0	2.0	1085	$1,900	$1.75	14d	1	0.61mi
1881 S Irwin St Tulare, CA	3.0	2.0	1424	$1,895	$1.33	14d	1	0.63mi
1913 Del Monte Ct Tulare, CA	3.0	2.0	1481	$1,925	$1.30	14d	1	0.71mi
3017 Bora Ave Tulare, CA	3.0	2.0	1440	$2,200	$1.53	22d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-16
   statusdays on market $45,000 Pending 40 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $45,000 Active 39 DOM
3. 2026-06-14
   days on market $45,000 Active 37 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $45,000 Active 36 DOM
5. 2026-06-10
   days on market $45,000 Active 34 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $45,000 Active 33 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   pricestatus $45,000 Active 32 DOM
8. 2026-04-06
   status Pending
9. 2026-03-05
   listed $59,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 33 unhealthy d/yr today · 38 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,689
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,521
• − Property taxes: −$675
• − Insurance: −$225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,895
• − Management: −$1,895
• − Depreciation: −$1,309
• Taxable income: $15,169
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,641
• After-tax cash flow: $11,342/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tulare Joint Union High
• NCES district ID: 0639930
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $46,858
• Composite: 29.91/100
• National rank: #6384
• State rank: #280 of 517 in CA

Livability — Tulare

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #701
• US rank: #21185

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C- Cost of living F Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tulare, CA
• County: Tulare County · 323,826 people
• City population: 80,026
• Metro: Visalia, CA
• Population (ZIP): 80,026
• Household income: $72,650
• Rent vs Own: 42.9% rent · 57.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 2393.0

Population outlook (Tulare County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 484,681 people
• By 2030: 496,241 · +2.4%
• By 2040: 518,507 · +7.0%
• By 2050: 534,920 · +10.4%
• By 2075: 548,417 · +13.2%
• By 2100: 513,085 · +5.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 64% White 29% Two or more races 24% Asian 2% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 60%
• Common ancestry: Russian 7% Iranian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 52% English-only · Spanish 42% Other Indo-European 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Tulare

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 38.5% · R 59.2% · Other 2.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.4pp toward R · 2008: -15.3pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+7.8 2016: R+12.1 2012: R+17.8 2008: R+15.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -402.03%
• Current HPI: 316.0806
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.67%
• Metro: Visalia, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-06 Pending — TCMLS
• 2026-03-05 Listed $59,000 TCMLS

Property tax history

-4.1%/yr

Latest (2021): $43 · -5.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.