3108 Running Deer Dr · North Fort Myers, FL 33917

$125,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,120 sqft · Manufactured public records · 20 Days on market

Built 1981 5,009 sqft lot Est $128k · at est. $125/mo HOA · 8% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.2/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +8.4/15.0
• 1% rule +8.2/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nice Home. Newer: A/C, Roofover, Frig, Ven. Blinds. Gray Pipe Replaced. Exterior Just Painted. Oversized Shed W/ Workbench, Storage. Glassed In & Carpeted Lanai. Laundry Inside. Many Activities & Amenities. Vol Hoa. Maint. Fee $67.78/Mo. Trash Removal & Maint Of Sts & Rec Facilities.

Key facts

• Local attractions
• Exercise room
• Welcoming clubhouse

Tags

• EXERCISE ROOM
• WELCOMING CLUBHOUSE
• BEAUTIFULLY MAINTAINED GROUNDS
• EASY ACCESS TO SHOPPING
• EASY ACCESS TO DINING
• LOCAL ATTRACTIONS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property is in a multi-unit community with 351 units; single unit in building and on one floor; Lot restrictions: deeded, no commercial
• HOA & community: Voluntary HOA; HOA fee $125 monthly (total annual recurring fees $1,500); Professional management; Community amenities: clubhouse, community pool, spa/hot tub, exercise room, community room, BBQ/picnic area, internet access; HOA maintenance covers laundry facilities, manager, street lights, street maintenance, and trash removal; Community type: Non-gated

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car carport
• Utilities: Central water; Central sewer; Cable available
• Home design: Manufactured residential home; 1 story / ranch / Florida style; Built in 1981; Rear exposure facing east; Located in Lake Arrowhead Mobile Village (non-gated)
• Construction: Manufactured construction; Roof over
• Exterior features: Patio; Single-hung windows; Aluminum siding; Landscaped view

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric cooktop; Self-cleaning oven; Refrigerator/ice maker
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (split bedroom floor plan)
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Master bath with combo tub and shower
• Heating & cooling: Cooling: see remarks
• Interior features: Built-in cabinets; Closet cabinets; Custom mirrors; High-speed internet available; Pantry; Breakfast room; Florida room / glass porch; Furnished
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $398 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $123k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.1% vs local median 3.6% in North Fort Myers — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#269 in FL, #4,409 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Diplomat Elementary School (math 67% / reading 60%, grade B, #564 of 2,144 statewide, top 27%, 1,069 students, 56% FRL); Mariner Middle School (math 50% / reading 47%, grade C-, #274 of 571 statewide, top 50%, 1,001 students, 53% FRL); Ida S. Baker High School (math 44% / reading 47%, grade D-, #223 of 667 statewide, top 34%, 1,933 students, 39% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 846 active listings in the ZIP; 31 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($55k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.6% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask is 10360% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $48k; list at $125k implies a 160% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→30/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $123,125 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.32% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.66%
• DSCR: 1.61
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $127,680
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
826 Peaceful Dr	0.71mi	2/2.0	1,152 (+3%)	3mo	$135,000	$117	60
1091 Laurel Dr	0.40mi	2/2.0	1,194 (+7%)	14mo	$79,000	$66	59
786 Roses Ln	0.73mi	2/2.0	1,056 (-6%)	4mo	$149,000	$141	53
974 Restful Rd	0.56mi	2/2.0	960 (-14%)	3mo	$109,575	$114	47
16042 Citron Way	0.73mi	2/2.0	1,288 (+15%)	4mo	$132,000	$102	37
16034 Citron Way	0.74mi	2/2.0	960 (-14%)	7mo	$125,000	$130	36
16041 Citron Way	0.75mi	2/2.0	960 (-14%)	7mo	$92,000	$96	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.63% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.13×
• Total profit: $4,549
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.98×
• Total profit: $34,336
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33917

• Home prices YoY: -30.2%
• Rents YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 846
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,648 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$71 /mo · $852/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$125
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$346
• Net cashflow: $398

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,144

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 71%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $469	-5% $434	+0% $398	+5% $363	+10% $328
Rent	-10% $268	-5% $333	+0% $398	+5% $463	+10% $528
Rate	-1.0pp $461	-0.5pp $430	base $398	+0.5pp $366	+1.0pp $333

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 31 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2774 Wedgewood Dr North Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	880	$1,300	$1.48	25d	1	0.26mi
266 Mongoose Ln #266 North Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	1372	$1,499	$1.09	5d	1	0.29mi
4120 Pine Drop Ln North Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	957	$1,895	$1.98	25d	1	0.45mi
2095 Eloise Cir North Fort Myers, FL	2.0	1.0	840	$1,295	$1.54	25d	1	0.60mi
2027 Eloise Cir North Fort Myers, FL	2.0	1.0	822	$1,300	$1.58	5d	1	0.64mi
535 Zebra Dr #535 North Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	1352	$1,499	$1.11	16d	1	0.65mi
3404 Rainbow Ln North Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1056	$1,800	$1.70	5d	1	0.69mi
28 Nyborg Ave North Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	1042	$1,299	$1.25	16d	1	0.84mi
17499 Monte Isola Way Unit 17499 North Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.5	1405	$1,800	$1.28	15d	1	0.91mi
16363 Teresa Ln North Fort Myers, FL	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,000	$1.00	25d	1	0.92mi
17489 Monte Isola Way North Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.5	1347	$1,800	$1.34	16d	1	0.93mi
4208 Caterina Ct North Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.5	1347	$1,800	$1.34	16d	1	1.01mi
17400 Monte Isola Way North Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	1448	$1,875	$1.29	25d	1	1.04mi
4264 Cirella Ct North Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.5	1442	$2,000	$1.39	13d	1	1.08mi
4276 Cirella Ct North Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.5	1378	$1,800	$1.31	25d	1	1.09mi
3957 Pomodoro Cir #301 Cape Coral, FL	2.0	2.0	1270	$1,450	$1.14	17d	1	1.12mi
4275 Cirella Ct North Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.5	1378	$1,800	$1.31	25d	1	1.13mi
3961 Pomodoro Cir #204 Cape Coral, FL	2.0	2.0	1270	$1,450	$1.14	25d	1	1.14mi
3961 Pomodoro Cir #204 Cape Coral, FL	2.0	2.0	1270	$1,450	$1.14	17d	1	1.14mi
3953 Pomodoro Cir Cape Coral, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1044	$1,462	$1.40	16d	9	1.15mi
8791 Littleton Rd North Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1074	$1,549	$1.44	25d	1	1.16mi
3973 Pomodoro Cir Cape Coral, FL	2.0	2.0	1534	$1,575	$1.03	4d	3	1.22mi
3973 Pomodoro Cir Cape Coral, FL	2.0	2.0	1469	$1,498	$1.02	25d	2	1.22mi
3968 Pomodoro Cir #202 Cape Coral, FL	2.0	2.0	1469	$1,475	$1.00	16d	1	1.22mi
3944 Pomodoro Cir #202 Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.0	1411	$2,200	$1.56	25d	1	1.23mi
2904 Tuscan Dr #303 Cape Coral, FL	2.0	2.0	1460	$1,450	$0.99	25d	1	1.23mi
2913 Tuscan Dr #102 Cape Coral, FL	2.0	2.0	1469	$1,450	$0.99	25d	1	1.25mi
2909 Tuscan Dr Cape Coral, FL	2.0	2.0	1469	$1,475	$1.00	25d	2	1.25mi
3940 Pomodoro Cir Cape Coral, FL	2.0	2.0	1270	$1,475	$1.16	5d	2	1.25mi
3940 Villa Del Mar CIR Cape Coral, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1051	$2,116	$2.01	3d	21	1.28mi
571 Sunrise Ln North Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1004	$1,400	$1.39	25d	1	1.42mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $125 · $1,500/yr
• Likely covers: trash

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $125,000 Active 20 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,000 Active 17 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,000 Active 16 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,000 Active 15 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $125,000 Active 14 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $125,000 Active 12 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $125,000 Active 9 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $125,000 Active 8 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $125,000 Active 7 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $125,000 Active 6 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $125,000 Active 2 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on marketlisting id $125,000 Active 1 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $125,000 Active 136 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $125,000 Active 135 DOM
15. 2026-05-06
    price $1,100
16. 2026-04-26
    listed $1,195
17. 2026-01-16
    listed $125,000 Active
18. 2024-06-22
    status Active
19. 2024-06-20
    historical
20. 2024-06-20
    historical
21. 2024-05-17
    price $99,000
22. 2024-04-16
    price $110,000
23. 2024-03-14
    listed $115,000 Active
24. 2001-04-10
    soldstatus $48,000
25. 2001-04-06
    soldstatus $48,000 307-char remark

    Show marketing remark (307 chars)

    Nice Home. Newer: A/C, Roofover, Frig, Ven. Blinds. Gray Pipe Replaced. Exterior Just Painted. Oversized Shed W/ Workbench, Storage. Glassed In & Carpeted Lanai. Laundry Inside. Many Activities & Amenities. Vol Hoa. Maint. Fee $67.78/Mo. Trash Removal & Maint Of Sts & Rec Facilities.

26. 2001-02-20
    price $54,000 307-char remark

    Show marketing remark (307 chars)

    Nice Home. Newer: A/C, Roofover, Frig, Ven. Blinds. Gray Pipe Replaced. Exterior Just Painted. Oversized Shed W/ Workbench, Storage. Glassed In & Carpeted Lanai. Laundry Inside. Many Activities & Amenities. Vol Hoa. Maint. Fee $67.78/Mo. Trash Removal & Maint Of Sts & Rec Facilities.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $852 · $71/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,038 · $86/mo
• Expected delta: +$185/yr (+$15/mo · 21.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 30 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,776
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$852
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,582
• − Management: −$1,582
• − HOA: −$1,500
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $2,996
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$719
• After-tax cash flow: $4,060/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lee
• NCES district ID: 1201080
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,518
• Composite: 41.49/100
• National rank: #3458
• State rank: #42 of 73 in FL

Livability — North Fort Myers

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #269
• US rank: #4409

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: North Fort Myers, FL
• County: Lee County · 788,662 people
• City population: 57,035
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,380
• Household income: $55,000
• Rent vs Own: 16.3% rent · 83.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 775.0

Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 871,946 people
• By 2030: 955,468 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 1,113,587 · +27.7%
• By 2050: 1,256,891 · +44.1%
• By 2075: 1,560,270 · +78.9%
• By 2100: 1,726,848 · +98.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 7% Asian 1% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.4) · D 35.5% · R 63.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.0pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.4 2020: R+19.2 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+16.6 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -122.28%
• Current HPI: 282.2895
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.63%
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-98.0% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $1,100 NAPLESMLS
• 2026-04-26 Listed for Rent $1,195 NAPLESMLS
• 2026-01-16 Listed $125,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2024-06-22 Relisted — FORTMLS
• 2024-06-20 Listing Removed — FORTMLS
• 2024-06-20 Listing Removed — FORTMLS
• 2024-05-17 Price Changed $99,000 FORTMLS
• 2024-04-16 Price Changed $110,000 FORTMLS
• 2024-03-14 Listed $115,000 FORTMLS
• 2001-04-10 Sold (Public Records) $48,000 Public Records
• 2001-04-06 Sold (MLS) $48,000 FORTMLS
• 2001-02-20 Price Changed $54,000 FORTMLS

Property tax history

+10.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $852 · -2.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.