7529 State Line · Orangeville, OH 44404

$115,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,232 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 255 Days on market

Built 1901 5,880 sqft lot $93/sqft · 22% below area Est $148k · 22% under ↓ 23% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.5/10.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Appreciation +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming home in Badger Schools! This 3-bedroom, 1.5-bath home offers both comfort and convenience. The first-floor master bedroom features its own private half bath, making it ideal for easy living. Upstairs, you’ll find two additional bedrooms and a full bathroom. Outside, enjoy the large 3-car detached garage, perfect for vehicles, hobbies, or extra storage. Conveniently located just a hop from Pennsylvania, this home combines a peaceful setting with quick access to major routes. Move-in ready and waiting for its next owner to make it home!

Key facts

• 5,880 sq ft lot
• 3 garage spots
• Built 1901

Tags

• FIRST-FLOOR MASTER BEDROOM
• LARGE 3-CAR DETACHED GARAGE
• QUICK ACCESS TO MAJOR ROUTES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $115k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $153 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $115k).
• Recommended offer: $101k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#873 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• Joseph Badger Local (rural): math 46% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #397 of 656 in OH (top 60%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Badger Elementary School (math 52% / reading 62%, grade C+, #729 of 1,584 statewide, top 48%, 245 students, 53% FRL); Badger Middle School (math 48% / reading 59%, grade C+, #362 of 654 statewide, top 57%, 204 students, 42% FRL); Badger High School (math 32% / reading 62%, grade D-, #435 of 781 statewide, top 59%, 197 students, 38% FRL).
• Market conditions: 3 active listings in the ZIP; 129 units permitted in Trumbull County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.0%/yr); year-one equity from $795 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Trumbull County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 255 days — a 12% lower offer ($101k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1901 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $101,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 255 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1901 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.89%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.71%
• DSCR: 1.25
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $147,543
• List price: $115,000
• Delta: -22.06%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.02% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.87×
• Total profit: $-4,086
• Equity at exit: $22,237

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.41×
• Total profit: $13,274
• Equity at exit: $18,911

Cash invested: $32,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 44404

• Home prices YoY: -1.4%
• Active inventory: 3
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,160 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax from tax record: −$112 /mo · $1,347/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$244
• Net cashflow: $153

Break-even live

Break-even rent $966

Max offer price $115,000

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $218	-5% $186	+0% $153	+5% $121	+10% $88
Rent	-10% $62	-5% $108	+0% $153	+5% $199	+10% $245
Rate	-1.0pp $211	-0.5pp $183	base $153	+0.5pp $124	+1.0pp $93

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,750
• Closing costs: $3,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $115,000 Active 255 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $115,000 Active 254 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $115,000 Active 252 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $115,000 Active 251 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $115,000 Active 250 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $115,000 Active 249 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $115,000 Active 247 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $115,000 Active 246 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $115,000 Active 243 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $115,000 Active 242 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $115,000 Active 241 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $115,000 Active 239 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $115,000 Active 237 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $115,000 Active 236 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $115,000 Active 235 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $115,000 Active 234 DOM
17. 2026-05-08
    price $115,000 555-char remark

    Show marketing remark (555 chars)

    Charming home in Badger Schools! This 3-bedroom, 1.5-bath home offers both comfort and convenience. The first-floor master bedroom features its own private half bath, making it ideal for easy living. Upstairs, you’ll find two additional bedrooms and a full bathroom. Outside, enjoy the large 3-car detached garage, perfect for vehicles, hobbies, or extra storage. Conveniently located just a hop from Pennsylvania, this home combines a peaceful setting with quick access to major routes. Move-in ready and waiting for its next owner to make it home!

18. 2025-12-30
    price $129,000 555-char remark

    Show marketing remark (555 chars)

    Charming home in Badger Schools! This 3-bedroom, 1.5-bath home offers both comfort and convenience. The first-floor master bedroom features its own private half bath, making it ideal for easy living. Upstairs, you’ll find two additional bedrooms and a full bathroom. Outside, enjoy the large 3-car detached garage, perfect for vehicles, hobbies, or extra storage. Conveniently located just a hop from Pennsylvania, this home combines a peaceful setting with quick access to major routes. Move-in ready and waiting for its next owner to make it home!

19. 2025-11-03
    price $134,900 555-char remark

    Show marketing remark (555 chars)

    Charming home in Badger Schools! This 3-bedroom, 1.5-bath home offers both comfort and convenience. The first-floor master bedroom features its own private half bath, making it ideal for easy living. Upstairs, you’ll find two additional bedrooms and a full bathroom. Outside, enjoy the large 3-car detached garage, perfect for vehicles, hobbies, or extra storage. Conveniently located just a hop from Pennsylvania, this home combines a peaceful setting with quick access to major routes. Move-in ready and waiting for its next owner to make it home!

20. 2025-10-09
    listed $149,900 Active 555-char remark

    Show marketing remark (555 chars)

    Charming home in Badger Schools! This 3-bedroom, 1.5-bath home offers both comfort and convenience. The first-floor master bedroom features its own private half bath, making it ideal for easy living. Upstairs, you’ll find two additional bedrooms and a full bathroom. Outside, enjoy the large 3-car detached garage, perfect for vehicles, hobbies, or extra storage. Conveniently located just a hop from Pennsylvania, this home combines a peaceful setting with quick access to major routes. Move-in ready and waiting for its next owner to make it home!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,347 · $112/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,571 · $131/mo
• Expected delta: +$223/yr (+$19/mo · 16.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,923
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,442
• − Property taxes: −$1,347
• − Insurance: −$575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,114
• − Management: −$1,114
• − Depreciation: −$3,345
• Taxable loss: −$14
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3
• After-tax cash flow: $1,843/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Joseph Badger Local
• NCES district ID: 3905017
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $50,379
• Composite: 45.26/100
• National rank: #2659
• State rank: #397 of 656 in OH

Livability — Orangeville

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #873
• US rank: #16571

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Orangeville, OH
• County: Trumbull · 193,293 people
• Metro: Youngstown-Warren, OH
• Population (ZIP): 1,712
• Household income: $47,058
• Rent vs Own: 9.8% rent · 90.2% own

Population outlook (Trumbull County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 191,696 people
• By 2030: 184,015 · -4.0%
• By 2040: 166,810 · -13.0%
• By 2050: 149,857 · -21.8%
• By 2075: 115,769 · -39.6%
• By 2100: 83,617 · -56.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 97% Two or more races 2% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Subsaharan African 2% Serbian 2% Iranian 1%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Trumbull

• 2024 margin: R (+16.8) · D 41.2% · R 58.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -39.2pp toward R · 2008: 22.4pp · 2024: -16.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.8 2020: R+10.6 2016: R+6.4 2012: D+22.2 2008: D+22.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.02%
• Current HPI: 138.76
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

-23.3% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $115,000 MLSNOW
• 2025-12-30 Price Changed $129,000 MLSNOW
• 2025-11-03 Price Changed $134,900 MLSNOW
• 2025-10-09 Listed $149,900 MLSNOW

Property tax history

+7.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,347 · -0.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.