37233 S Lakeshore Ave · Prairieville, LA 70769

$314,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,183 sqft · SingleFamily · 123 Days on market

Built 2001 0.29 ac lot $144/sqft · 26% below area Est $423k · 26% under $20/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Bright and spacious with an open floor plan and plenty of storage. Double rear garage with bonus room

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Double rear garage
• Bonus room

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• DOUBLE REAR GARAGE
• BONUS ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $314k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $266 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $306k (2.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $276k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 4.3% in Prairieville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#70 in LA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Ascension Parish (suburban): math 48% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #7 of 98 in LA (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.5%/yr); 492 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 579 units permitted in Ascension Parish in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($109k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ascension County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 123 days — a 12% lower offer ($276k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $48k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $48k; list at $314k implies a 556% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $276,320 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 123 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.64%
• DSCR: 1.16
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $423,207
• List price: $314,000
• Delta: -25.80%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
37416 Dutchtown Crossing Ave	0.27mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,985 (-9%)	1mo	$339,500	$171	64
37510 Dutchtown Crossing Ave	0.42mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,055 (-6%)	3mo	$349,000	$170	63
37184 Mindy Way Ave	0.38mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,364 (+8%)	2mo	$369,500	$156	59
13255 Mill Point Dr	0.39mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,085 (-4%)	9mo	$384,000	$184	59
37384 Cypress Hollow Ave	0.63mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,259 (+4%)	3mo	$484,700	$215	55
37503 Dutchtown Crossing Ave	0.43mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,959 (-10%)	4mo	$350,000	$179	53
13223 Old Dutchtown Ave	0.55mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,377 (+9%)	4mo	$440,000	$185	49
37405 Cypress Hollow Ave	0.61mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,348 (+8%)	6mo	$510,000	$217	47
37029 N Millstone Ave	0.57mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,402 (+10%)	8mo	$369,500	$154	43
13313 Mill Grove Dr	0.60mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,950 (-11%)	10mo	$365,000	$187	39
37537 Cypress Hollow Ave	0.68mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,507 (+15%)	0mo	$555,900	$222	36
37410 Cypress Hollow Ave	0.65mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,489 (+14%)	5mo	$445,000	$179	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.47% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-32,428
• Equity at exit: $46,818

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.00×
• Total profit: $-221
• Equity at exit: $27,149

Cash invested: $87,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Louisiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+12
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; no state rent control; civil-law jurisdiction; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 70769

• Rents YoY: 3.5%
• Active inventory: 492
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,063 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,647
• Tax from tax record: −$356 /mo · $4,268/yr
• Insurance: −$131
• HOA: −$20
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$643
• Net cashflow: $266

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,726

Max offer price $314,000

Occupancy floor 86%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,500
• Closing costs: $9,420
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
37313 Mindy Way Ave Prairieville, LA	4.0	3.0	2517	$4,050	$1.61	44d	1	0.29mi
37393 Preserve Trl Gonzales, LA	3.0	2.5	1956	$2,500	$1.28	14d	2	0.60mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $20 · $240/yr

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-05-12
   status Pending 101-char remark

   Show marketing remark (101 chars)

   Bright and spacious with an open floor plan and plenty of storage. Double rear garage with bonus room

2. 2026-05-12
   status Pending 101-char remark

   Show marketing remark (101 chars)

   Bright and spacious with an open floor plan and plenty of storage. Double rear garage with bonus room

3. 2026-04-15
   price $314,000 101-char remark

   Show marketing remark (101 chars)

   Bright and spacious with an open floor plan and plenty of storage. Double rear garage with bonus room

4. 2026-04-15
   price $314,000 101-char remark

   Show marketing remark (101 chars)

   Bright and spacious with an open floor plan and plenty of storage. Double rear garage with bonus room

5. 2026-03-17
   price $328,000 101-char remark

   Show marketing remark (101 chars)

   Bright and spacious with an open floor plan and plenty of storage. Double rear garage with bonus room

6. 2026-03-17
   price $328,000 101-char remark

   Show marketing remark (101 chars)

   Bright and spacious with an open floor plan and plenty of storage. Double rear garage with bonus room

7. 2026-02-13
   price $345,000 101-char remark

   Show marketing remark (101 chars)

   Bright and spacious with an open floor plan and plenty of storage. Double rear garage with bonus room

8. 2026-02-13
   price $345,000 101-char remark

   Show marketing remark (101 chars)

   Bright and spacious with an open floor plan and plenty of storage. Double rear garage with bonus room

9. 2026-01-09
   listed $362,000 Active 101-char remark

   Show marketing remark (101 chars)

   Bright and spacious with an open floor plan and plenty of storage. Double rear garage with bonus room

10. 2026-01-09
    listed $362,000 Active 101-char remark

    Show marketing remark (101 chars)

    Bright and spacious with an open floor plan and plenty of storage. Double rear garage with bonus room

11. 2022-04-21
    soldstatus Sold
12. 2022-03-26
    status Pending
13. 2022-03-24
    status Active
14. 2022-03-10
    status Pending
15. 2022-02-26
    listed $399,000 Active
16. 2022-02-26
    listed $399,000
17. 2001-08-14
    soldstatus $47,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast LA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,268 · $356/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,268 · $356/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X · 47% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,752
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,589
• − Property taxes: −$4,268
• − Insurance: −$1,570
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,940
• − Management: −$2,940
• − HOA: −$240
• − Depreciation: −$9,135
• Taxable loss: −$1,930
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$463
• After-tax cash flow: $3,659/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ascension Parish
• NCES district ID: 2200090
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -31.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▼ -25.00%
• Median HH income: $68,423
• Composite: 47.0/100
• National rank: #2347
• State rank: #7 of 98 in LA

Livability — Prairieville

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #70
• US rank: #8507

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Ascension Parish · 98,362 people
• City population: 49,278
• Metro: Baton Rouge, LA
• Population (ZIP): 49,278
• Household income: $109,404
• Rent vs Own: 12.3% rent · 87.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 91.0

Population outlook (Ascension County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 145,480 people
• By 2030: 158,329 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 183,741 · +26.3%
• By 2050: 207,615 · +42.7%
• By 2075: 260,244 · +78.9%
• By 2100: 289,576 · +99.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Black 15% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 16% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ascension

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+34.0) · D 32.2% · R 66.1% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.7pp toward D · 2008: -35.7pp · 2024: -34.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+34.0 2020: R+32.5 2016: R+36.0 2012: R+34.3 2008: R+35.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -111.56%
• Current HPI: 144.2267
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.47%
• Metro: Baton Rouge, LA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.29%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Telecommunications	2	$23B
▸Utilities	1	$12B
▸Wholesale / Distribution	1	$5B
▸Advertising	1	$2B

Price history

+555.5% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Pending — AcadianaMLS
• 2026-05-12 Pending — GSREIN
• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $314,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $314,000 GSREIN
• 2026-03-17 Price Changed $328,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2026-03-17 Price Changed $328,000 GSREIN
• 2026-02-13 Price Changed $345,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2026-02-13 Price Changed $345,000 GSREIN
• 2026-01-09 Listed $362,000 GSREIN
• 2026-01-09 Listed $362,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2022-04-21 Sold (MLS) — GBRMLS
• 2022-03-26 Pending — GBRMLS
• 2022-03-24 Relisted — GBRMLS
• 2022-03-10 Pending — GBRMLS
• 2022-02-26 Listed $399,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2022-02-26 Listed $399,000 GBRMLS
• 2001-08-14 Sold (Public Records) $47,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,268 · -1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.