175 Magnolia St · Winchester, KY 40391

$169,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,046 sqft · Other · 57 Days on market

Built 1945 7,405 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Two homes on one lot. Informaton in listing is for the home in the front of the lot. Behind this home is a second home consisting of 2 bedrooms, 1, bath, Living room and kitchen. Main home has been completely remodeled but guest home will require major renevations. The home in the front of the property is vacant but there is a tenant in the home in the rear of the property. The lease is month to month so the tentant is aware they will need to vacate the property before close of sale.

Key facts

• Completely remodeled
• Two homes on one lot
• 7,405 sq ft lot

Tags

• TWO HOMES ON ONE LOT
• COMPLETELY REMODELED

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Off-street parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity available; Natural gas available
• Home design: Single-story house
• Construction: Wood siding; Block foundation; Metal roof; Built as a house (structure type)
• Exterior features: Guest house on property; Chain link fence; Neighborhood view

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Range
• Bedrooms: Total of 7 rooms (bedroom count not specified)
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump for heating and cooling
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Insulated windows; Fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup on main level; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $169k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $66 ($788/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $142k (16.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $142k (16.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 4.0% in Winchester — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#393 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Clark County (town): math 28% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #64 of 165 in KY (top 39%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Shearer Elementary School (math 27% / reading 37%, grade F, #348 of 676 statewide, top 55%, 392 students, 68% FRL); Robert D. Campbell Jr. High (math 28% / reading 47%, grade F, #73 of 217 statewide, top 36%, 820 students, 57% FRL).
• Market conditions: 291 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 160 units permitted in Clark County in 2024 (61 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Clark County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 57 days — a 3% lower offer ($164k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $70k; list at $169k implies a 141% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1945 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $141,574 (16.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 57 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1945 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.67%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.51×
• Total profit: $-23,253
• Equity at exit: $25,198

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.68×
• Total profit: $-15,063
• Equity at exit: $14,612

Cash invested: $47,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40391

• Home prices YoY: -17.0%
• Active inventory: 291
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,416 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$886
• Tax from tax record: −$96 /mo · $1,153/yr
• Insurance: −$70
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$297
• Net cashflow: $66

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,333

Max offer price $169,000

Occupancy floor 90%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,250
• Closing costs: $5,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
502 Evans St Unit 3 Winchester, KY	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,400	$1.17	23d	1	0.26mi
25 Hays St Winchester, KY	2.0	2.0	1250	$1,300	$1.04	23d	1	0.81mi
204 S Maple St Winchester, KY	2.0	1.0	1400	$1,395	$1.00	14d	1	0.84mi
403 Atrium Pl Winchester, KY	2.0	1.5	960	$975	$1.02	14d	1	0.88mi
104 Pepperwood Ct Winchester, KY	3.0	2.0	1482	$1,400	$0.94	44d	1	1.38mi

Listing history 39 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $169,000 Active 57 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $169,000 Active 56 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $169,000 Active 55 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $169,000 Active 54 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $169,000 Active 52 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $169,000 Active 51 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $169,000 Active 49 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $169,000 Active 48 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $169,000 Active 47 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $169,000 Active 46 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $169,000 Active 43 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $169,000 Active 42 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $169,000 Active 41 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $169,000 Active 40 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $169,000 Active 39 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    pricedays on market $169,000 Active 38 DOM
17. 2026-04-22
    listed $179,000 Active
18. 2026-04-10
    historical
19. 2026-03-17
    price $194,000
20. 2026-01-06
    price $194,900
21. 2025-12-16
    price $175,000
22. 2025-10-10
    listed $199,000 Active
23. 2025-09-16
    historical
24. 2025-03-16
    listed $135,000 Active
25. 2020-03-16
    soldstatus $70,000 Sold
26. 2020-03-16
    soldstatus $70,000
27. 2020-02-03
    status Pending
28. 2020-01-31
    historical
29. 2019-09-30
    status Active
30. 2019-09-16
    status Pending
31. 2019-09-16
    historical
32. 2019-07-12
    listed $75,000 Active
33. 2019-07-12
    listed $75,000 Active
34. 2019-05-31
    historical
35. 2019-04-25
    status Active
36. 2019-04-21
    historical
37. 2018-11-27
    price $74,000
38. 2018-10-24
    listed $79,000 Active
39. 1995-08-01
    soldstatus $10,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,153 · $96/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,453 · $121/mo
• Expected delta: +$300/yr (+$25/mo · 26.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,989
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,467
• − Property taxes: −$1,153
• − Insurance: −$845
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,359
• − Management: −$1,359
• − Depreciation: −$4,916
• Taxable loss: −$2,111
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$507
• After-tax cash flow: $1,294/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clark County
• NCES district ID: 2101200
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -25.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -18.00%
• Median HH income: $47,282
• Composite: 29.63/100
• National rank: #6469
• State rank: #64 of 165 in KY

Livability — Winchester

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #393
• US rank: #18931

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Winchester, KY
• County: Clark County · 36,796 people
• City population: 36,796
• Metro: Lexington-Fayette, KY
• Population (ZIP): 36,796
• Household income: $64,144
• Rent vs Own: 29.4% rent · 70.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 854.0

Population outlook (Clark County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 35,849 people
• By 2030: 35,616 · -0.6%
• By 2040: 34,727 · -3.1%
• By 2050: 33,195 · -7.4%
• By 2075: 29,439 · -17.9%
• By 2100: 24,744 · -31.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Black 4% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Clark

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+35.3) · D 31.6% · R 66.9% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.3pp toward R · 2008: -25.1pp · 2024: -35.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+35.3 2020: R+32.0 2016: R+37.1 2012: R+30.5 2008: R+25.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -58.24%
• Current HPI: 283.7839
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Lexington-Fayette, KY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+1690.0% since first listed

23 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Listed $179,000 ImagineMLS
• 2026-04-10 Listing Removed — ImagineMLS
• 2026-03-17 Price Changed $194,000 ImagineMLS
• 2026-01-06 Price Changed $194,900 ImagineMLS
• 2025-12-16 Price Changed $175,000 ImagineMLS
• 2025-10-10 Listed $199,000 ImagineMLS
• 2025-09-16 Listing Removed — ImagineMLS
• 2025-03-16 Listed $135,000 ImagineMLS
• 2020-03-16 Sold (Public Records) $70,000 Public Records
• 2020-03-16 Sold (MLS) $70,000 ImagineMLS
• 2020-02-03 Pending — ImagineMLS
• 2020-01-31 Listing Removed — ImagineMLS
• 2019-09-30 Relisted — ImagineMLS
• 2019-09-16 Pending — ImagineMLS
• 2019-09-16 Listing Removed — ImagineMLS
• 2019-07-12 Listed $75,000 ImagineMLS
• 2019-07-12 Listed $75,000 ImagineMLS
• 2019-05-31 Listing Removed — ImagineMLS
• 2019-04-25 Relisted — ImagineMLS
• 2019-04-21 Listing Removed — ImagineMLS
• 2018-11-27 Price Changed $74,000 ImagineMLS
• 2018-10-24 Listed $79,000 ImagineMLS
• 1995-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $10,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,153 · +67.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.