16 Surf Dr · Pittsburg, CA 94565

$54,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured · 73 Days on market

$38/sqft · 37% below area Est $87k · 37% under ↓ 21% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Motivated Seller! Welcome to this spacious doublewide mobile home located in the desirable Delta Hawaii Senior Mobile Home Park, a 55+ community. The primary bedroom features an en-suite bathroom with a large shower and enclosed closet. A second bedroom and full hall bath provide comfortable accommodations for guests or a home office. Also features a separate office space. Built in ramp & lift for wheelchair access . Refrigerator, washer, dryer are included. Enjoy the open and inviting living space, complete with a bright, light-filled kitchen and ample cabinetry. The kitchen flows seamlessly into the dining area and expansive living room—perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The living room is highlighted by a cozy raised hearth fireplace. This home offers a comfortable and functional floor plan with great natural light throughout. With a simple flooring update, you can easily make it your own! Relax on the west-facing front porch, ideal for enjoying sunny days. Additional features include tandem parking with a covered carport. Residents of this well-maintained 55+ community enjoy amenities such as a pool, organized activities, and landscaped green spaces. Conveniently located near shopping, freeway access, Los Medanos College, and local businesses.

Key facts

• Tandem parking
• En-suite bathroom
• Built in ramp

Tags

• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• SEPARATE OFFICE SPACE
• BUILT IN RAMP
• LIFT FOR WHEELCHAIR ACCESS
• BRIGHT LIGHT FILLED KITCHEN
• TANDEM PARKING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $55k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($22k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $55k).
• Recommended offer: $52k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 46.3% vs local median 3.4% in Pittsburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#687 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime D-, amenities F.
• Pittsburg Unified (suburban): math 21% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #1,069 of 1,400 in CA (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 265 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,169 units permitted in Contra Costa County in 2024 (896 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($96k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $380 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Contra Costa County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.1% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 73 days — a 6% lower offer ($52k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $51,606 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 73 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 5.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 46.25%
• Cash-on-cash: 142.71%
• DSCR: 7.35
• GRM: 1.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $86,700
• List price: $54,900
• Delta: -36.68%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 18 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16 Surf Dr	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	0mo	$54,900	$38	100
141 Maui Dr	0.19mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	2mo	$84,000	$58	90
61 Pali Way	0.10mi	2/2.0	1,400 (-3%)	3mo	$50,000	$36	88
215 Maui Dr #215	0.18mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	4mo	$85,500	$59	88
210 Kona Crk	0.22mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (0%)	1mo	$70,000	$49	84
237 Aloha Way	0.23mi	2/2.0	1,464 (+2%)	5mo	$175,000	$120	83
232 Queens Way	0.24mi	2/2.0	1,400 (-3%)	4mo	$87,500	$63	80
134 Banyon Dr	0.18mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-7%)	3mo	$133,000	$99	78
77 Hilo Dr	0.08mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,566 (+9%)	2mo	$270,000	$172	75
224 Queens Way #224	0.31mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-7%)	2mo	$85,900	$64	73
46 Palm Dr	0.05mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,277 (-11%)	6mo	$230,000	$180	69
202 Queens Way	0.26mi	2/2.0	1,248 (-13%)	1mo	$70,000	$56	65

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.11% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 7.66×
• Total profit: $102,363
• Equity at exit: $8,186

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 15.22×
• Total profit: $218,627
• Equity at exit: $4,747

Cash invested: $15,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94565

• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 265
• Price-to-rent: 1.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,794 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$288
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$69 /mo · $824/yr
• Insurance: −$23
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$587
• Net cashflow: $1,828

Break-even live

Break-even rent $480

Max offer price $54,900

Occupancy floor 30%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,866	-5% $1,847	+0% $1,828	+5% $1,809	+10% $1,790
Rent	-10% $1,607	-5% $1,718	+0% $1,828	+5% $1,938	+10% $2,049
Rate	-1.0pp $1,856	-0.5pp $1,842	base $1,828	+0.5pp $1,814	+1.0pp $1,799

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,725
• Closing costs: $1,647
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 20 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4 Meadowbrook Ave Pittsburg, CA	2.0	2.0	1122	$2,600	$2.32	44d	1	0.11mi
2221 Lynbrook Dr Pittsburg, CA	3.0	2.0	1365	$3,195	$2.34	44d	1	0.24mi
948 Golden Leaf Way Pittsburg, CA	3.0	2.0	1386	$3,400	$2.45	44d	1	0.25mi
500 Loveridge Cir Pittsburg, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	825	$2,472	$3.00	0d	10	0.33mi
110 Dias Cir Pittsburg, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	819	$2,385	$2.91	0d	17	0.39mi
3724 Gladstone Dr Pittsburg, CA	3.0	2.0	1356	$3,195	$2.36	0d	1	0.55mi
60 Xena Ct Pittsburg, CA	3.0	2.5	1805	$3,200	$1.77	44d	1	0.64mi
3809 Lassen Dr Pittsburg, CA	3.0	1.5	1650	$2,995	$1.82	4d	1	0.66mi
240 Benjamin Ave Pittsburg, CA	3.0	2.0	1379	$3,139	$2.28	3d	1	0.71mi
2205 E Leland Rd Pittsburg, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	847	$2,294	$2.71	0d	18	0.90mi
17 Lorraine Ave Pittsburg, CA	3.0	1.5	1180	$2,700	$2.29	19d	1	0.95mi
30 Castlewood Dr Pittsburg, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	793	$2,640	$3.33	0d	3	1.08mi
1341 Maple St Pittsburg, CA	2.0	1.0	1299	$2,550	$1.96	22d	1	1.14mi
1353 Pine St Pittsburg, CA	3.0	2.0	1369	$2,750	$2.01	6d	1	1.16mi
1000 Pheasant Dr Pittsburg, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.5	879	$2,795	$3.18	25d	29	1.20mi
1346 Redwood St Pittsburg, CA	3.0	1.5	1066	$2,915	$2.73	17d	1	1.21mi
706 E 12th St Pittsburg, CA	2.0	1.0	935	$2,490	$2.66	22d	1	1.26mi
706 E 12th St Pittsburg, CA	2.0	1.0	939	$2,490	$2.65	25d	1	1.26mi
241 W Buchanan Rd Pittsburg, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	840	$2,660	$3.17	0d	12	1.30mi
99 Liberty Ct Pittsburg, CA	3.0	2.5	1802	$3,600	$2.00	44d	1	1.32mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-08
   price $54,900 1300-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1300 chars)

   Motivated Seller! Welcome to this spacious doublewide mobile home located in the desirable Delta Hawaii Senior Mobile Home Park, a 55+ community. The primary bedroom features an en-suite bathroom with a large shower and enclosed closet. A second bedroom and full hall bath provide comfortable accommodations for guests or a home office. Also features a separate office space. Built in ramp & lift for wheelchair access . Refrigerator, washer, dryer are included. Enjoy the open and inviting living space, complete with a bright, light-filled kitchen and ample cabinetry. The kitchen flows seamlessly into the dining area and expansive living room—perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The living room is highlighted by a cozy raised hearth fireplace. This home offers a comfortable and functional floor plan with great natural light throughout. With a simple flooring update, you can easily make it your own! Relax on the west-facing front porch, ideal for enjoying sunny days. Additional features include tandem parking with a covered carport. Residents of this well-maintained 55+ community enjoy amenities such as a pool, organized activities, and landscaped green spaces. Conveniently located near shopping, freeway access, Los Medanos College, and local businesses.

2. 2026-03-17
   listed $69,900 Active 1300-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1300 chars)

   Motivated Seller! Welcome to this spacious doublewide mobile home located in the desirable Delta Hawaii Senior Mobile Home Park, a 55+ community. The primary bedroom features an en-suite bathroom with a large shower and enclosed closet. A second bedroom and full hall bath provide comfortable accommodations for guests or a home office. Also features a separate office space. Built in ramp & lift for wheelchair access . Refrigerator, washer, dryer are included. Enjoy the open and inviting living space, complete with a bright, light-filled kitchen and ample cabinetry. The kitchen flows seamlessly into the dining area and expansive living room—perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The living room is highlighted by a cozy raised hearth fireplace. This home offers a comfortable and functional floor plan with great natural light throughout. With a simple flooring update, you can easily make it your own! Relax on the west-facing front porch, ideal for enjoying sunny days. Additional features include tandem parking with a covered carport. Residents of this well-maintained 55+ community enjoy amenities such as a pool, organized activities, and landscaped green spaces. Conveniently located near shopping, freeway access, Los Medanos College, and local businesses.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 8/10 Severe 14 unhealthy d/yr today · 14 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,532
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,075
• − Property taxes: −$824
• − Insurance: −$274
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,683
• − Management: −$2,683
• − Depreciation: −$1,597
• Taxable income: $22,396
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$5,375
• After-tax cash flow: $16,562/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pittsburg Unified
• NCES district ID: 0630600
• Math proficiency: 21% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $55,872
• Composite: 27.99/100
• National rank: #12238
• State rank: #1069 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Pittsburg

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #687
• US rank: #20922

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime D- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pittsburg, CA
• County: Contra Costa County · 1,059,880 people
• City population: 100,488
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 100,488
• Household income: $95,556
• Rent vs Own: 39.1% rent · 60.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 3942.0

Population outlook (Contra Costa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,287,720 people
• By 2030: 1,364,937 · +6.0%
• By 2040: 1,506,209 · +17.0%
• By 2050: 1,624,373 · +26.1%
• By 2075: 1,853,193 · +43.9%
• By 2100: 1,901,231 · +47.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 48% Two or more races 19% Asian 17% White 16% Black 13% Pacific Islander 1% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Russian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 34% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 47% English-only · Spanish 37% Tagalog/Filipino 6% Other Indo-European 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Contra Costa

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+38.0) · D 67.3% · R 29.4% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.2pp no change · 2008: 37.8pp · 2024: 38.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+38.0 2020: D+45.3 2016: D+43.5 2012: D+33.7 2008: D+37.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -478.40%
• Current HPI: 376.2576
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.11%
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-21.5% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $54,900 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-03-17 Listed $69,900 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR