815 N Hayden Rd Unit B14 · Scottsdale, AZ 85257

$135,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 957 sqft · Condo · 189 Days on market

Built 1962 Good condition $141/sqft · 17% below area Est $163k · 17% under $440/mo HOA · 21% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +7.7/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to your move-in ready 3 bed/1 Scottsdale townhouse. Easy living where utilities and maintenance of HVAC and water heater systems are covered by the HOA. It has a private courtyard, large windows that bring in the natural light that open up to a grass area. Close to the Loop 101 & 202 Freeways, Tempe Market, and shopping and dining options. The co-op must be cash only, no rentals, and approved by the board.

Key facts

• $440 HOA
• Parking
• Community pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $135k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $264 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $135k).
• Recommended offer: $119k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.6% vs local median 2.5% in Scottsdale — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#4 in AZ, #1,756 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: health & safety C-, cost of living F.
• Scottsdale Unified District (4240) (urban): math 53% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #30 of 249 in AZ (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Cheyenne Traditional School (math 78% / reading 75%, grade A, #24 of 1,109 statewide, top 2%, 880 students, 4% FRL); Coronado High School (math 8% / reading 12%, grade F, #343 of 381 statewide, top 93%, 740 students, 64% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.8%/yr); 320 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 54d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 72% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 189 days — a 12% lower offer ($119k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 21% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $118,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 189 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.54% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.39%
• DSCR: 1.37
• GRM: 5.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $163,100
• List price: $135,000
• Delta: -17.23%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
815 N Hayden Rd Unit B2	0.03mi	2/1.5 (-1)	860 (-10%)	2mo	$175,000	$203	73
7826 E Beatrice St	0.23mi	3/1.5	1,058 (+11%)	1mo	$380,000	$359	69
1113 N 84th Pl	0.59mi	2/1.5 (-1)	950 (-1%)	1mo	$260,000	$274	63
1137 N 84th Pl	0.63mi	2/1.5 (-1)	950 (-1%)	0mo	$257,200	$271	62
1047 N 84th Pl	0.61mi	2/1.5 (-1)	950 (-1%)	2mo	$185,000	$195	62
920 N 82nd St Unit H108	0.17mi	2/1.0 (-1)	800 (-16%)	2mo	$110,000	$138	61
8210 E Garfield St Unit K4	0.28mi	3/1.5	1,134 (+18%)	0mo	$157,500	$139	60
1650 N 87th Ter Unit A16	1.22mi	2/2.0 (-1)	925 (-3%)	1mo	$260,000	$281	50
7660 E Mckellips Rd #78	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,128 (+18%)	1mo	$254,000	$225	48
8625 E Belleview Pl #1103	0.89mi	2/2.0 (-1)	917 (-4%)	1mo	$305,000	$333	48
8430 E Roosevelt St	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,107 (+16%)	1mo	$280,888	$254	45
7936 E Wilshire Dr #203	1.41mi	3/2.0	1,193 (+25%)	0mo	$365,000	$306	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.8% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.86×
• Total profit: $-5,160
• Equity at exit: $20,129

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.44×
• Total profit: $16,704
• Equity at exit: $11,672

Cash invested: $37,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 1 active · 2 under contract
• Median asking: $274,900 ($294/sqft)
• Median days on market: 186 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: -42.0% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 85257

• Rents YoY: 2.8%
• Active inventory: 320
• Price-to-rent: 5.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,072 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$169 /mo · $2,025/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$440
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$435
• Net cashflow: $264

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,738

Max offer price $135,000

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $358	-5% $311	+0% $264	+5% $218	+10% $171
Rent	-10% $101	-5% $182	+0% $264	+5% $346	+10% $428
Rate	-1.0pp $332	-0.5pp $299	base $264	+0.5pp $229	+1.0pp $194

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,750
• Closing costs: $4,050
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7902 E Kimsey Ln Scottsdale, AZ	3.0	2.0	1066	$3,200	$3.00	93d	1	0.14mi
8155 E Roosevelt St #110 Scottsdale, AZ	2.0	2.0	939	$2,100	$2.24	93d	1	0.15mi
885 N Granite Reef Rd Scottsdale, AZ	2.0	2.0–2.5	1000	$1,462	$1.46	63d	1	0.44mi
835 N Granite Reef Rd Scottsdale, AZ	2.0	2.0–2.5	1000	$1,650	$1.65	2d	1	0.46mi
835 N Granite Reef Rd Scottsdale, AZ	2.0	2.0–2.5	1000	$1,600	$1.60	21d	1	0.46mi
835 N Granite Reef Rd Unit 6A Scottsdale, AZ	2.0	2.0	855	$1,499	$1.75	54d	1	0.47mi
985 N Granite Reef Rd Scottsdale, AZ	2.0	2.0–2.5	1020	$1,687	$1.65	2d	6	0.47mi
935 N Granite Reef Rd #87 Scottsdale, AZ	2.0	2.0	855	$1,599	$1.87	67d	1	0.48mi
935 N Granite Reef Rd Unit 56A Scottsdale, AZ	2.0	2.0	855	$1,599	$1.87	13d	1	0.48mi
935 N Granite Reef Rd Unit 141 Scottsdale, AZ	2.0	2.0	855	$1,599	$1.87	73d	1	0.48mi
935 N Granite Reef Rd Unit 126A Scottsdale, AZ	2.0	2.0	855	$1,599	$1.87	53d	1	0.48mi
985 N Granite Reef Rd Scottsdale, AZ	2.0	2.0–2.5	1022	$1,382	$1.35	68d	8	0.49mi
303 N Miller Rd #1005 Scottsdale, AZ	2.0	1.0	850	$1,275	$1.50	57d	1	0.55mi
1075 N Miller Rd Scottsdale, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	993	$2,007	$2.02	2d	8	0.55mi
525 N Miller Rd Scottsdale, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0	1173	$2,990	$2.55	26d	3	0.57mi
525 N Miller Rd Scottsdale, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0	1173	$2,990	$2.55	13d	2	0.57mi
525 N Miller Rd Scottsdale, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0–3.0	1173	$2,990	$2.55	53d	3	0.57mi
1037 N 84th Pl Scottsdale, AZ	3.0	2.0	1107	$1,900	$1.72	38d	1	0.59mi
8562 E Roosevelt St Scottsdale, AZ	2.0	1.5	950	$1,395	$1.47	30d	1	0.60mi
7602 E Polk St Unit 101 Scottsdale, AZ	2.0	1.0	720	$1,475	$2.05	52d	1	0.61mi
1261 N Granite Reef Rd Scottsdale, AZ	2.0	1.5	950	$1,500	$1.58	73d	1	0.62mi
303 N Miller Rd Scottsdale, AZ	2.0	1.0	850	$1,238	$1.46	52d	2	0.62mi
8529 E Portland St Scottsdale, AZ	2.0	1.0	936	$1,400	$1.50	40d	1	0.63mi
1217 N Miller Rd #14 Scottsdale, AZ	2.0	2.0	1026	$1,950	$1.90	73d	1	0.65mi
1264 N 84th Pl Scottsdale, AZ	3.0	2.0	1107	$1,850	$1.67	36d	1	0.66mi
1255 N 84th Pl Scottsdale, AZ	2.0	1.5	950	$1,895	$1.99	2d	1	0.66mi
8535 E Belleview St Scottsdale, AZ	2.0	2.0	937	$1,995	$2.13	67d	1	0.69mi
848 N 86th Pl Scottsdale, AZ	3.0	2.0	1100	$2,512	$2.28	64d	1	0.70mi
1254 N 85th Pl Scottsdale, AZ	2.0	1.5	950	$1,599	$1.68	69d	1	0.70mi
8547 E Belleview St Scottsdale, AZ	2.0	1.5	950	$1,699	$1.79	36d	1	0.71mi
8530 E Belleview St Scottsdale, AZ	2.0	1.5	950	$1,800	$1.89	64d	1	0.71mi
1350 N 85th Pl Scottsdale, AZ	2.0	2.0	936	$1,525	$1.63	73d	1	0.72mi
1346 N 85th Pl Scottsdale, AZ	2.0	2.0	950	$1,745	$1.84	71d	1	0.72mi
1346 N 85th Pl Scottsdale, AZ	2.0	1.5	950	$1,749	$1.84	73d	1	0.72mi
1336 N 85th Pl Scottsdale, AZ	3.0	2.0	1107	$2,600	$2.35	27d	1	0.74mi
1336 N 85th Pl Scottsdale, AZ	3.0	2.0	1107	$2,600	$2.35	32d	1	0.74mi
1336 N 85th Pl Scottsdale, AZ	3.0	2.0	1107	$2,600	$2.35	31d	1	0.74mi
1336 N 85th Pl Scottsdale, AZ	3.0	2.0	1107	$2,295	$2.07	15d	1	0.74mi
1221 N 85th Pl Unit 109 Scottsdale, AZ	2.0	2.0	863	$1,795	$2.08	63d	1	0.74mi
1221 N 85th Pl Unit 206 Scottsdale, AZ	2.0	2.0	863	$1,695	$1.96	29d	1	0.74mi

HOA detail $440/mo · $5,280/yr condo

• Likely covers: water
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $135,000 Active 189 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $135,000 Active 187 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $135,000 Active 186 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $135,000 Active 185 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $135,000 Active 184 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $135,000 Active 181 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $135,000 Active 180 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $135,000 Active 179 DOM
9. 2026-07-28
   days on market $135,000 Active 178 DOM
10. 2026-07-26
    days on market $135,000 Active 176 DOM
11. 2026-07-24
    days on market $135,000 Active 174 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $135,000 Active 173 DOM
13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $135,000 Active 172 DOM
14. 2026-07-21
    days on market $135,000 Active 171 DOM
15. 2026-07-20
    days on market $135,000 Active 170 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $135,000 Active 168 DOM
17. 2026-07-18
    days on market $135,000 Active 167 DOM
18. 2026-07-16
    days on market $135,000 Active 166 DOM
19. 2026-07-15
    days on market $135,000 Active 165 DOM
20. 2026-07-14
    days on market $135,000 Active 164 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $135,000 Active 163 DOM
22. 2026-07-13
    days on market $135,000 Active 162 DOM
23. 2026-07-11
    days on market $135,000 Active 161 DOM
24. 2026-07-10
    days on market $135,000 Active 160 DOM
25. 2026-07-09
    pricedays on market $135,000 Active 159 DOM
26. 2026-07-07
    days on market $145,000 Active 157 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $145,000 Active 156 DOM
28. 2026-07-06
    days on market $145,000 Active 155 DOM
29. 2026-07-05
    days on market $145,000 Active 154 DOM
30. 2026-07-03
    days on market $145,000 Active 153 DOM
31. 2026-07-02
    days on market $145,000 Active 152 DOM
32. 2026-07-01
    days on market $145,000 Active 151 DOM
33. 2026-06-30
    days on market $145,000 Active 150 DOM
34. 2026-06-29
    days on market $145,000 Active 149 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $145,000 Active 148 DOM
36. 2026-06-27
    days on market $145,000 Active 147 DOM
37. 2026-06-26
    days on market $145,000 Active 146 DOM
38. 2026-06-24
    days on market $145,000 Active 144 DOM
39. 2026-06-22
    days on market $145,000 Active 142 DOM
40. 2026-06-21
    statusdays on market $145,000 Active 141 DOM
41. 2026-06-13
    statusdays on market $145,000 Pending 139 DOM
42. 2026-06-09
    days on market $145,000 Active 137 DOM
43. 2026-06-08
    days on market $145,000 Active 136 DOM
44. 2026-06-07
    days on market $145,000 Active 135 DOM
45. 2026-06-04
    days on market $145,000 Active 132 DOM
46. 2026-06-03
    days on market $145,000 Active 131 DOM
47. 2026-06-02
    days on market $145,000 Active 130 DOM
48. 2026-06-01
    days on market $145,000 Active 129 DOM
49. 2026-05-31
    days on market $145,000 Active 128 DOM
50. 2026-01-23
    listed $145,000 Active 421-char remark

    Show marketing remark (421 chars)

    Welcome to your move-in ready 3 bed/1 Scottsdale townhouse. Easy living where utilities and maintenance of HVAC and water heater systems are covered by the HOA. It has a private courtyard, large windows that bring in the natural light that open up to a grass area. Close to the Loop 101 & 202 Freeways, Tempe Market, and shopping and dining options. The co-op must be cash only, no rentals, and approved by the board.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥112°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,869
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,562
• − Property taxes: −$2,025
• − Insurance: −$675
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,990
• − Management: −$1,990
• − HOA: −$5,280
• − Depreciation: −$3,927
• Taxable income: $1,421
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$341
• After-tax cash flow: $2,830/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $4,785–$14,355 screening

This move-in ready 3-bedroom/1-bathroom townhouse in Scottsdale is in good condition with minimal repairs needed. It offers a private courtyard and is close to major freeways and amenities.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Landscaping — Improves curb appeal and rental value ↑
• Both Replace blinds — Enhances natural light and aesthetics ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 32/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Hohokam Elementary School C AZ #208/1,109 Nat'l #9,801/41,679 High Coronado High School F AZ #343/381 Nat'l #16,463/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Scottsdale Unified District (4240)
• NCES district ID: 0407570
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $70,139
• Composite: 48.02/100
• National rank: #2196
• State rank: #30 of 249 in AZ

A Composite livability gradescore 80/100

Livability — Scottsdale

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #4
• US rank: #1756

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing A- Health & safety C- User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Scottsdale, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,979,203 people
• City population: 290,846
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 29,812
• Household income: $86,962
• Rent vs Own: 38.9% rent · 61.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 9% of renters

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Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 13% Black 4% Asian 3% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 3% Romanian 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 1% Korean 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -411.72%
• Current HPI: 412.043
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.80%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-01-23 Listed $145,000 ARMLS