815 N Hayden Rd Unit B14 · Scottsdale, AZ 85257

$145,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 957 sqft · Townhouse · 139 Days on market

Built 1962 Good condition 2.26 ac lot $152/sqft · 12% below area Est $164k · 12% under $440/mo HOA · 22% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.6/30.0
• ARV discount +12.8/15.0
• 1% rule +9.0/10.0
• DSCR +6.2/10.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to your move-in ready 3 bed/1 Scottsdale townhouse. Easy living where utilities and maintenance of HVAC and water heater systems are covered by the HOA. It has a private courtyard, large windows that bring in the natural light that open up to a grass area. Close to the Loop 101 & 202 Freeways, Tempe Market, and shopping and dining options. The co-op must be cash only, no rentals, and approved by the board.

Key facts

• $440 HOA
• Parking
• Community pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $145k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $166 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $145k).
• Recommended offer: $128k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 2.5% in Scottsdale — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#4 in AZ, #1,756 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: health & safety C-, cost of living F.
• Scottsdale Unified District (4240) (urban): math 53% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #30 of 249 in AZ (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.8%/yr); 262 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 139 days — a 12% lower offer ($128k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 22% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $127,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 139 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.40% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.90%
• DSCR: 1.22
• GRM: 5.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $164,225
• List price: $145,000
• Delta: -11.71%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
808 N 82nd St Unit F6	0.15mi	2/1.5 (-1)	957 (0%)	1mo	$158,000	$165	85
8155 E Roosevelt St #214	0.12mi	2/2.0 (-1)	939 (-2%)	3mo	$265,000	$282	80
8155 E Roosevelt St #113	0.12mi	2/2.0 (-1)	939 (-2%)	4mo	$265,000	$282	79
815 N Hayden Rd Unit A113	0.01mi	2/1.0 (-1)	860 (-10%)	2mo	$145,000	$169	76
815 N Hayden Rd Unit B2	0.03mi	2/1.5 (-1)	860 (-10%)	0mo	$175,000	$203	74
814 N 82nd St Unit G115	0.20mi	2/1.0 (-1)	888 (-7%)	3mo	$110,000	$124	71
1047 N 84th Pl	0.61mi	2/1.5 (-1)	950 (-1%)	0mo	$185,000	$195	63
1213 N 84th Pl	0.62mi	2/1.5 (-1)	950 (-1%)	2mo	$217,450	$229	61
8531 E Portland St	0.63mi	2/2.0 (-1)	950 (-1%)	1mo	$274,000	$288	60
1276 N 85th Pl	0.66mi	2/1.5 (-1)	950 (-1%)	3mo	$290,000	$305	58
8525 E Belleview St #6	0.68mi	2/1.5 (-1)	950 (-1%)	3mo	$305,000	$321	58
8210 E Garfield St Unit K13	0.28mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,088 (+14%)	2mo	$175,000	$161	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.8% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.68×
• Total profit: $-13,035
• Equity at exit: $21,620

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.04×
• Total profit: $1,811
• Equity at exit: $12,537

Cash invested: $40,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85257

• Rents YoY: 2.8%
• Active inventory: 262
• Price-to-rent: 5.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,035 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$181 /mo · $2,175/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$440
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$427
• Net cashflow: $166

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,825

Max offer price $145,000

Occupancy floor 87%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,250
• Closing costs: $4,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7902 E Kimsey Ln Scottsdale, AZ	3.0	2.0	1066	$3,200	$3.00	44d	1	0.14mi
8155 E Roosevelt St #110 Scottsdale, AZ	2.0	2.0	939	$2,100	$2.24	44d	1	0.15mi
885 N Granite Reef Rd Scottsdale, AZ	2.0	2.0–2.5	1000	$1,462	$1.46	14d	1	0.44mi
835 N Granite Reef Rd Unit 6A Scottsdale, AZ	2.0	2.0	855	$1,499	$1.75	5d	1	0.47mi
835 N Granite Reef Rd #18 Scottsdale, AZ	2.0	2.0	855	$1,450	$1.70	2d	1	0.47mi
985 N Granite Reef Rd Scottsdale, AZ	2.0	2.0–2.5	1020	$1,662	$1.63	4d	9	0.47mi
935 N Granite Reef Rd Unit 126A Scottsdale, AZ	2.0	2.0	855	$1,599	$1.87	4d	1	0.48mi
935 N Granite Reef Rd #87 Scottsdale, AZ	2.0	2.0	855	$1,599	$1.87	18d	1	0.48mi
935 N Granite Reef Rd Unit 141 Scottsdale, AZ	2.0	2.0	855	$1,599	$1.87	24d	1	0.48mi
985 N Granite Reef Rd Scottsdale, AZ	2.0	2.0–2.5	1022	$1,382	$1.35	19d	8	0.49mi
525 N Miller Rd #145 Scottsdale, AZ	2.0	2.0	945	$2,100	$2.22	44d	1	0.54mi
303 N Miller Rd #1005 Scottsdale, AZ	2.0	1.0	850	$1,275	$1.50	8d	1	0.55mi
525 N Miller Rd Scottsdale, AZ	2.0	2.0	1028	$2,000	$1.94	8d	2	0.57mi
525 N Miller Rd Scottsdale, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0–3.0	1173	$2,990	$2.55	4d	3	0.57mi
7602 E Polk St Unit 101 Scottsdale, AZ	2.0	1.0	720	$1,475	$2.05	3d	1	0.61mi
1261 N Granite Reef Rd Scottsdale, AZ	2.0	1.5	950	$1,500	$1.58	24d	1	0.62mi
303 N Miller Rd Scottsdale, AZ	2.0	1.0	850	$1,238	$1.46	3d	2	0.62mi
8529 E Portland St Scottsdale, AZ	2.0	1.0	936	$1,425	$1.52	22d	1	0.63mi
1217 N Miller Rd #14 Scottsdale, AZ	2.0	2.0	1026	$1,950	$1.90	24d	1	0.65mi
8535 E Belleview St Scottsdale, AZ	2.0	2.0	937	$1,995	$2.13	18d	1	0.69mi
848 N 86th Pl Scottsdale, AZ	3.0	2.0	1100	$2,512	$2.28	15d	1	0.70mi
1254 N 85th Pl Scottsdale, AZ	2.0	1.5	950	$1,599	$1.68	20d	1	0.70mi
8530 E Belleview St Scottsdale, AZ	2.0	1.5	950	$1,800	$1.89	15d	1	0.71mi
1350 N 85th Pl Scottsdale, AZ	2.0	2.0	936	$1,525	$1.63	24d	1	0.72mi
1346 N 85th Pl Scottsdale, AZ	2.0	1.5	950	$1,749	$1.84	24d	1	0.72mi
1346 N 85th Pl Scottsdale, AZ	2.0	2.0	950	$1,745	$1.84	22d	1	0.72mi
1221 N 85th Pl Unit 109 Scottsdale, AZ	2.0	2.0	863	$1,795	$2.08	14d	1	0.74mi
1406 N 85th Pl Scottsdale, AZ	2.0	2.0	1009	$1,541	$1.53	4d	1	0.76mi
8625 E Belleview Pl #1069 Scottsdale, AZ	2.0	2.0	917	$1,800	$1.96	24d	1	0.86mi
8550 E McDowell Rd Scottsdale, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	823	$1,687	$2.05	2d	5	0.88mi
7325 E Belleview St #1017 Scottsdale, AZ	2.0	1.5	788	$1,750	$2.22	13d	1	0.90mi
7325 E Belleview St #1007 Scottsdale, AZ	2.0	1.5	788	$1,750	$2.22	20d	1	0.90mi
8625 E Belleview Pl Scottsdale, AZ	2.0	2.0	908	$1,775	$1.95	4d	3	0.90mi
8521 E McDowell Rd Unit 1374247P Scottsdale, AZ	2.0	2.0	936	$2,335	$2.49	8d	1	0.90mi
7320 E Belleview St Scottsdale, AZ	2.0	1.5	741	$1,895	$2.56	18d	1	0.91mi
1301 N Scottsdale Rd Scottsdale, AZ	3.0	1.0–2.0	1079	$2,658	$2.46	2d	30	0.95mi
1301 N Scottsdale Rd Scottsdale, AZ	3.0	1.0–2.0	1079	$2,843	$2.63	11d	34	0.95mi
8444 E Coronado Rd Apt 2 Scottsdale, AZ	2.0	2.0	1022	$1,850	$1.81	24d	1	0.96mi
7305 E Belleview St Unit 04 Scottsdale, AZ	2.0	1.0	879	$1,600	$1.82	24d	1	0.96mi
1332 N Miller Rd Unit A Tempe, AZ	2.0	1.0	1004	$1,299	$1.29	1d	1	1.05mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $440 · $5,280/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $145,000 Pending 139 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $145,000 Active 137 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $145,000 Active 136 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $145,000 Active 135 DOM
5. 2026-06-04
   days on market $145,000 Active 132 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $145,000 Active 131 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $145,000 Active 130 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $145,000 Active 129 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $145,000 Active 128 DOM
10. 2026-01-23
    listed $145,000 Active 421-char remark

    Show marketing remark (421 chars)

    Welcome to your move-in ready 3 bed/1 Scottsdale townhouse. Easy living where utilities and maintenance of HVAC and water heater systems are covered by the HOA. It has a private courtyard, large windows that bring in the natural light that open up to a grass area. Close to the Loop 101 & 202 Freeways, Tempe Market, and shopping and dining options. The co-op must be cash only, no rentals, and approved by the board.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥112°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,425
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,122
• − Property taxes: −$2,175
• − Insurance: −$725
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,954
• − Management: −$1,954
• − HOA: −$5,280
• − Depreciation: −$4,218
• Taxable loss: −$3
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1
• After-tax cash flow: $1,992/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This move-in ready 3-bedroom/1-bathroom townhouse in Scottsdale is in good condition with minimal repairs needed. It offers a private courtyard and is close to major freeways and amenities.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Landscaping — Improves curb appeal and rental value
• Both Replace blinds — Enhances natural light and aesthetics

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Landscaping — Improves curb appeal and rental value ↑
• Both Replace blinds — Enhances natural light and aesthetics ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Scottsdale Unified District (4240)
• NCES district ID: 0407570
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $70,139
• Composite: 48.02/100
• National rank: #2196
• State rank: #30 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Scottsdale

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #4
• US rank: #1756

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing A- Health & safety C- User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Scottsdale, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 290,846
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 29,812
• Household income: $86,962
• Rent vs Own: 38.9% rent · 61.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1086.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 13% Black 4% Asian 3% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 3% Romanian 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 1% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -411.72%
• Current HPI: 412.043
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.80%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-01-23 Listed $145,000 ARMLS