3005 Talon Cir · Auburn Hills, MI 48360

$368,900

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,053 sqft · Condo public records · 26 Days on market

Built 1996 $80/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this inviting raised ranch in the desirable Orion Woods neighborhood, conveniently located just north of the scenic Bald Mountain Recreation Area - perfect for enjoying year-round outdoor activities. A high-ceilinged foyer creates a welcoming entry, leading up to a bright, functional main living space where the kitchen opens onto the living area, allowing for easy everyday living and entertaining. Natural light fills the home, enhancing the comfortable layout throughout. The primary bedroom features an ensuite bath, while the walk-out lower level offers additional living space with a spacious family room and a fourth bedroom - ideal for guests, a home office, or flex space to fit your needs. Recent updates include luxury vinyl flooring on both levels, new roof 2019, central air 2020, hot water heater and garbage disposal 2021 a new furnace 2025, fresh paint, new sprinkler heads, a half-bath remodel, and appliances, including a refrigerator, range, microwave, and dryer. Located within the award-winning Lake Orion Community Schools, this home offers a great combination of space and functionality, along with convenient access to shopping, dining, and major highways.

Key facts

• 6,098 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1996

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath condo listed at $369k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $197 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $333k (9.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $333k (9.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 3.7% in Auburn Hills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#151 in MI, #3,766 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, schools D, amenities F.
• Lake Orion Community Schools (suburban): math 49% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #45 of 540 in MI (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 84 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,614 units permitted in Oakland County in 2024 (721 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Oakland County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($363k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $310k; 19% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $332,882 (9.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.93%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.29%
• DSCR: 1.10
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.54×
• Total profit: $-47,256
• Equity at exit: $55,004

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.76×
• Total profit: $-25,086
• Equity at exit: $31,896

Cash invested: $103,292 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48360

• Active inventory: 84
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,329 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,935
• Tax from tax record: −$265 /mo · $3,175/yr
• Insurance: −$154
• HOA: −$80
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$699
• Net cashflow: $197

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,080

Max offer price $368,900

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $406	-5% $301	+0% $197	+5% $93	+10% $-12
Rent	-10% $-66	-5% $65	+0% $197	+5% $328	+10% $460
Rate	-1.0pp $383	-0.5pp $291	base $197	+0.5pp $101	+1.0pp $4

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $92,225
• Closing costs: $11,067
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4100 Heron Springs Blvd Orion Twp, MI	2.0–3.0	2.0–2.5	1914	$3,535	$1.85	0d	5	0.84mi
1113 Lark St Unit 41 Lake Orion, MI	2.0	2.0	1730	$3,000	$1.73	0d	1	1.20mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $80 · $960/yr
• Likely covers: watertrash
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-05-05
   status Pending 1192-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1200 chars)

   Welcome to this inviting raised ranch in the desirable Orion Woods neighborhood, conveniently located just north of the scenic Bald Mountain Recreation Area—perfect for enjoying year-round outdoor activities. A high-ceilinged foyer creates a welcoming entry, leading up to a bright, functional main living space where the kitchen opens onto the living area, allowing for easy everyday living and entertaining. Natural light fills the home, enhancing the comfortable layout throughout. The primary bedroom features an ensuite bath, while the walk-out lower level offers additional living space with a spacious family room and a fourth bedroom—ideal for guests, a home office, or flex space to fit your needs. Recent updates include luxury vinyl flooring on both levels, new roof 2019, central air 2020, hot water heater and garbage disposal 2021 a new furnace 2025, fresh paint, new sprinkler heads, a half-bath remodel, and appliances, including a refrigerator, range, microwave, and dryer. Located within the award-winning Lake Orion Community Schools, this home offers a great combination of space and functionality, along with convenient access to shopping, dining, and major highways.

2. 2026-05-05
   status Pending 1200-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1200 chars)

   Welcome to this inviting raised ranch in the desirable Orion Woods neighborhood, conveniently located just north of the scenic Bald Mountain Recreation Area—perfect for enjoying year-round outdoor activities. A high-ceilinged foyer creates a welcoming entry, leading up to a bright, functional main living space where the kitchen opens onto the living area, allowing for easy everyday living and entertaining. Natural light fills the home, enhancing the comfortable layout throughout. The primary bedroom features an ensuite bath, while the walk-out lower level offers additional living space with a spacious family room and a fourth bedroom—ideal for guests, a home office, or flex space to fit your needs. Recent updates include luxury vinyl flooring on both levels, new roof 2019, central air 2020, hot water heater and garbage disposal 2021 a new furnace 2025, fresh paint, new sprinkler heads, a half-bath remodel, and appliances, including a refrigerator, range, microwave, and dryer. Located within the award-winning Lake Orion Community Schools, this home offers a great combination of space and functionality, along with convenient access to shopping, dining, and major highways.

3. 2026-04-27
   price $368,900 1192-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1200 chars)

   Welcome to this inviting raised ranch in the desirable Orion Woods neighborhood, conveniently located just north of the scenic Bald Mountain Recreation Area—perfect for enjoying year-round outdoor activities. A high-ceilinged foyer creates a welcoming entry, leading up to a bright, functional main living space where the kitchen opens onto the living area, allowing for easy everyday living and entertaining. Natural light fills the home, enhancing the comfortable layout throughout. The primary bedroom features an ensuite bath, while the walk-out lower level offers additional living space with a spacious family room and a fourth bedroom—ideal for guests, a home office, or flex space to fit your needs. Recent updates include luxury vinyl flooring on both levels, new roof 2019, central air 2020, hot water heater and garbage disposal 2021 a new furnace 2025, fresh paint, new sprinkler heads, a half-bath remodel, and appliances, including a refrigerator, range, microwave, and dryer. Located within the award-winning Lake Orion Community Schools, this home offers a great combination of space and functionality, along with convenient access to shopping, dining, and major highways.

4. 2026-04-27
   price $368,900 1200-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1200 chars)

   Welcome to this inviting raised ranch in the desirable Orion Woods neighborhood, conveniently located just north of the scenic Bald Mountain Recreation Area—perfect for enjoying year-round outdoor activities. A high-ceilinged foyer creates a welcoming entry, leading up to a bright, functional main living space where the kitchen opens onto the living area, allowing for easy everyday living and entertaining. Natural light fills the home, enhancing the comfortable layout throughout. The primary bedroom features an ensuite bath, while the walk-out lower level offers additional living space with a spacious family room and a fourth bedroom—ideal for guests, a home office, or flex space to fit your needs. Recent updates include luxury vinyl flooring on both levels, new roof 2019, central air 2020, hot water heater and garbage disposal 2021 a new furnace 2025, fresh paint, new sprinkler heads, a half-bath remodel, and appliances, including a refrigerator, range, microwave, and dryer. Located within the award-winning Lake Orion Community Schools, this home offers a great combination of space and functionality, along with convenient access to shopping, dining, and major highways.

5. 2026-04-10
   listed $374,900 Active 1200-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1192 chars)

   Welcome to this inviting raised ranch in the desirable Orion Woods neighborhood, conveniently located just north of the scenic Bald Mountain Recreation Area - perfect for enjoying year-round outdoor activities. A high-ceilinged foyer creates a welcoming entry, leading up to a bright, functional main living space where the kitchen opens onto the living area, allowing for easy everyday living and entertaining. Natural light fills the home, enhancing the comfortable layout throughout. The primary bedroom features an ensuite bath, while the walk-out lower level offers additional living space with a spacious family room and a fourth bedroom - ideal for guests, a home office, or flex space to fit your needs. Recent updates include luxury vinyl flooring on both levels, new roof 2019, central air 2020, hot water heater and garbage disposal 2021 a new furnace 2025, fresh paint, new sprinkler heads, a half-bath remodel, and appliances, including a refrigerator, range, microwave, and dryer. Located within the award-winning Lake Orion Community Schools, this home offers a great combination of space and functionality, along with convenient access to shopping, dining, and major highways.

6. 2026-04-10
   listed $374,900 Active 1192-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1192 chars)

   Welcome to this inviting raised ranch in the desirable Orion Woods neighborhood, conveniently located just north of the scenic Bald Mountain Recreation Area - perfect for enjoying year-round outdoor activities. A high-ceilinged foyer creates a welcoming entry, leading up to a bright, functional main living space where the kitchen opens onto the living area, allowing for easy everyday living and entertaining. Natural light fills the home, enhancing the comfortable layout throughout. The primary bedroom features an ensuite bath, while the walk-out lower level offers additional living space with a spacious family room and a fourth bedroom - ideal for guests, a home office, or flex space to fit your needs. Recent updates include luxury vinyl flooring on both levels, new roof 2019, central air 2020, hot water heater and garbage disposal 2021 a new furnace 2025, fresh paint, new sprinkler heads, a half-bath remodel, and appliances, including a refrigerator, range, microwave, and dryer. Located within the award-winning Lake Orion Community Schools, this home offers a great combination of space and functionality, along with convenient access to shopping, dining, and major highways.

7. 2026-04-08
   historical $374,900 1192-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1192 chars)

   Welcome to this inviting raised ranch in the desirable Orion Woods neighborhood, conveniently located just north of the scenic Bald Mountain Recreation Area - perfect for enjoying year-round outdoor activities. A high-ceilinged foyer creates a welcoming entry, leading up to a bright, functional main living space where the kitchen opens onto the living area, allowing for easy everyday living and entertaining. Natural light fills the home, enhancing the comfortable layout throughout. The primary bedroom features an ensuite bath, while the walk-out lower level offers additional living space with a spacious family room and a fourth bedroom - ideal for guests, a home office, or flex space to fit your needs. Recent updates include luxury vinyl flooring on both levels, new roof 2019, central air 2020, hot water heater and garbage disposal 2021 a new furnace 2025, fresh paint, new sprinkler heads, a half-bath remodel, and appliances, including a refrigerator, range, microwave, and dryer. Located within the award-winning Lake Orion Community Schools, this home offers a great combination of space and functionality, along with convenient access to shopping, dining, and major highways.

8. 2022-02-08
   soldstatus $310,000 Sold
9. 2022-02-08
   soldstatus $310,000 Closed
10. 2022-02-08
    historical
11. 2022-02-08
    historical
12. 2022-01-01
    status Pending
13. 2022-01-01
    status Pending
14. 2021-12-04
    status Active
15. 2021-12-04
    status Active
16. 2021-11-10
    historical
17. 2021-11-10
    historical
18. 2021-11-08
    historical $310,000
19. 2021-11-08
    historical $310,000
20. 2003-06-12
    soldstatus $213,000
21. 2003-05-14
    soldstatus $213,000
22. 2003-05-14
    soldstatus $213,000
23. 2003-04-04
    historical
24. 2003-02-24
    listed $219,500
25. 2003-02-24
    listed $219,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,175 · $265/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,428 · $369/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,253/yr (+$104/mo · 39.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $39,946
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,664
• − Property taxes: −$3,175
• − Insurance: −$1,844
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,196
• − Management: −$3,196
• − HOA: −$960
• − Depreciation: −$10,732
• Taxable loss: −$3,821
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$917
• After-tax cash flow: $3,280/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lake Orion Community Schools
• NCES district ID: 2620730
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $82,396
• Composite: 51.21/100
• National rank: #1755
• State rank: #45 of 540 in MI

Livability — Auburn Hills

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #151
• US rank: #3766

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 24,514
• Population (ZIP): 12,250

Population outlook (Oakland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,335,747 people
• By 2030: 1,375,100 · +2.9%
• By 2040: 1,435,385 · +7.5%
• By 2050: 1,469,250 · +10.0%
• By 2075: 1,531,946 · +14.7%
• By 2100: 1,450,485 · +8.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 8% Asian 8% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 12% Lithuanian 4% Slovak 4%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 3% Other Indo-European 3% Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Oakland

• 2024 margin: D (+10.6) · D 54.4% · R 43.8% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.9pp toward R · 2008: 14.5pp · 2024: 10.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.6 2020: D+14.1 2016: D+8.1 2012: D+8.1 2008: D+14.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -226.18%
• Current HPI: 180.3844
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+68.1% since first listed

25 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-05 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2026-04-27 Price Changed $368,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-27 Price Changed $368,900 REALCOMP
• 2026-04-10 Listed $374,900 REALCOMP
• 2026-04-10 Listed $374,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-08 Coming Soon $374,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2022-02-08 Sold (MLS) $310,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2022-02-08 Sold (MLS) $310,000 REALCOMP
• 2022-02-08 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2022-02-08 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2022-01-01 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2022-01-01 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2021-12-04 Relisted — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2021-12-04 Relisted — REALCOMP
• 2021-11-10 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2021-11-10 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2021-11-08 Coming Soon $310,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2021-11-08 Coming Soon $310,000 REALCOMP
• 2003-06-12 Sold (Public Records) $213,000 Public Records
• 2003-05-14 Sold (MLS) $213,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2003-05-14 Sold (MLS) $213,000 REALCOMP
• 2003-04-04 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2003-02-24 Listed $219,500 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2003-02-24 Listed $219,500 REALCOMP

Property tax history

+3.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,175 · -32.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.