3147 Thornapple Ct · Bel Air South, MD 21009

$315,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,826 sqft · Townhouse public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1989 2,200 sqft lot Est $327k · at est. $85/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.9/30.0
• ARV discount +9.1/15.0
• Rent growth +4.3/5.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Meticulously maintained 3 bedroom, 2 Full, 2 1/2 bath townhome conveniently located minutes from shopping & restaurants. Nestled in a court, this home features a bright Eat-in kitchen has corian countertops & a bay window. Separate dining room & a sunken family room that boasts a cozy wood burning fireplace. Fully finished lower level w/ pellet stove and sliders leading to patio. Min to I-95!

Key facts

• $85 HOA
• Built 1989
• Listed 2 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath townhouse listed at $315k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-79 ($-947/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $301k (4.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $254k (19.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $254k (19.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 4.1% in Bel Air South — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#33 in MD, #1,172 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D, cost of living D.
• Harford County Public Schools (suburban): math 22% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #9 of 24 in MD (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.1%/yr); 158 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 803 units permitted in Harford County in 2024 (26 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 30y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $195k; list at $315k implies a 62% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $253,785 (19.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.99%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.07%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $326,854
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3147 Thornapple Ct	0.00mi	3/3.0	1,826 (0%)	1mo	$315,000	$173	99
3322 Racoon Ct	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,860 (+2%)	6mo	$251,000	$135	79
3172 Hidden Ridge Ter	0.32mi	3/2.5	1,760 (-4%)	2mo	$338,000	$192	75
3336 Racoon Ct	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,690 (-7%)	1mo	$285,000	$169	74
2835 Meredith Ct	0.47mi	3/2.5	1,842 (+1%)	1mo	$330,000	$179	74
3102 Holly Berry Ct	0.06mi	3/2.5	1,615 (-12%)	5mo	$310,000	$192	72
3315 Timberwolf Ct	0.30mi	3/2.5	1,690 (-7%)	6mo	$305,000	$180	66
2932 Carlyle Ct	0.50mi	3/2.5	1,770 (-3%)	6mo	$320,000	$181	64
2853 Browning Ct	0.56mi	3/2.5	1,851 (+1%)	6mo	$325,000	$176	64
2921 Shelley Ct	0.48mi	3/3.5	1,722 (-6%)	3mo	$307,000	$178	64
2916 Carlyle Ct	0.51mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,800 (-1%)	5mo	$243,000	$135	62
2910 Ruskin Ct	0.46mi	3/2.5	1,705 (-7%)	6mo	$310,000	$182	61

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 7.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-45,133
• Equity at exit: $46,968

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.04×
• Total profit: $3,099
• Equity at exit: $27,235

Cash invested: $88,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21009

• Rents YoY: 7.1%
• Active inventory: 158
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,538 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,652
• Tax from tax record: −$216 /mo · $2,588/yr
• Insurance: −$131
• HOA: −$85
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$533
• Net cashflow: $-79

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,638

Max offer price $301,058

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $99	-5% $10	+0% $-79	+5% $-168	+10% $-257
Rent	-10% $-279	-5% $-179	+0% $-79	+5% $21	+10% $122
Rate	-1.0pp $80	-0.5pp $1	base $-79	+0.5pp $-161	+1.0pp $-244

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,750
• Closing costs: $9,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
617 Snapdragon Ct Abingdon, MD	3.0	2.5	2519	$2,850	$1.13	18d	1	0.23mi
3406 Winter Moss Ct Abingdon, MD	2.0	2.5	2004	$2,300	$1.15	13d	1	0.25mi
2814 Meredith Ct Abingdon, MD	3.0	2.5	1320	$2,300	$1.74	24d	1	0.49mi
3405 McCurley Dr Abingdon, MD	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1263	$3,264	$2.58	2d	29	0.74mi
3361 Cheverly Ct Abingdon, MD	3.0	2.5	1500	$2,195	$1.46	44d	1	1.01mi
129 Long Meadow Ct Abingdon, MD	3.0	1.5	1240	$2,200	$1.77	44d	1	1.17mi
307L Tall Pines Ct Unit L Abingdon, MD	3.0	2.0	1300	$2,399	$1.85	15d	1	1.20mi
2509 Merrick Ct Abingdon, MD	3.0	1.5	1230	$1,900	$1.54	44d	1	1.23mi
618 Milford Ct Abingdon, MD	3.0	2.5	1540	$2,450	$1.59	5d	1	1.33mi
618 Milford Ct Abingdon, MD	3.0	2.5	1540	$2,450	$1.59	24d	1	1.33mi
2503 Buckingham Ct Abingdon, MD	4.0	2.0	2292	$2,995	$1.31	15d	1	1.35mi
493 Ashton Ln Abingdon, MD	3.0	2.5	1760	$2,250	$1.28	24d	1	1.38mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $85 · $1,020/yr

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-04-19
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-17
   listed $315,000 Active
3. 2026-04-17
   historical $315,000
4. 2017-01-12
   soldstatus $195,000
5. 2017-01-09
   soldstatus $195,000 414-char remark

   Show marketing remark (414 chars)

   Meticulously maintained 3 bedroom, 2 Full, 2 1/2 bath townhome conveniently located minutes from shopping & restaurants. Nestled in a court, this home features a bright Eat-in kitchen has corian countertops & a bay window. Separate dining room & a sunken family room that boasts a cozy wood burning fireplace. Fully finished lower level w/ pellet stove and sliders leading to patio. Min to I-95!

6. 2017-01-09
   soldstatus $195,000 Sold 414-char remark

   Show marketing remark (414 chars)

   Meticulously maintained 3 bedroom, 2 Full, 2 1/2 bath townhome conveniently located minutes from shopping & restaurants. Nestled in a court, this home features a bright Eat-in kitchen has corian countertops & a bay window. Separate dining room & a sunken family room that boasts a cozy wood burning fireplace. Fully finished lower level w/ pellet stove and sliders leading to patio. Min to I-95!

7. 2016-12-01
   status Contingent (No Kick Out) 414-char remark

   Show marketing remark (414 chars)

   Meticulously maintained 3 bedroom, 2 Full, 2 1/2 bath townhome conveniently located minutes from shopping & restaurants. Nestled in a court, this home features a bright Eat-in kitchen has corian countertops & a bay window. Separate dining room & a sunken family room that boasts a cozy wood burning fireplace. Fully finished lower level w/ pellet stove and sliders leading to patio. Min to I-95!

8. 2016-11-18
   listed $195,000 Active 414-char remark

   Show marketing remark (414 chars)

   Meticulously maintained 3 bedroom, 2 Full, 2 1/2 bath townhome conveniently located minutes from shopping & restaurants. Nestled in a court, this home features a bright Eat-in kitchen has corian countertops & a bay window. Separate dining room & a sunken family room that boasts a cozy wood burning fireplace. Fully finished lower level w/ pellet stove and sliders leading to patio. Min to I-95!

9. 1996-08-31
   soldstatus $94,400
10. 1996-06-13
    historical
11. 1996-05-21
    listed $94,400
12. 1989-05-04
    soldstatus $91,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,588 · $216/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,011 · $251/mo
• Expected delta: +$423/yr (+$35/mo · 16.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,454
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,645
• − Property taxes: −$2,588
• − Insurance: −$1,575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,436
• − Management: −$2,436
• − HOA: −$1,020
• − Depreciation: −$9,164
• Taxable loss: −$6,410
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,538
• After-tax cash flow: $591/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Harford County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400390
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $79,569
• Composite: 29.38/100
• National rank: #6527
• State rank: #9 of 24 in MD

Livability — Bel Air South

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #33
• US rank: #1172

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute A- Cost of living D Crime D Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bel Air South, MD
• County: Harford County · 198,512 people
• City population: 63,895
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• Population (ZIP): 33,679
• Household income: $121,660
• Rent vs Own: 17.6% rent · 82.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 437.0

Population outlook (Harford County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 262,292 people
• By 2030: 266,437 · +1.6%
• By 2040: 269,954 · +2.9%
• By 2050: 265,659 · +1.3%
• By 2075: 252,886 · -3.6%
• By 2100: 224,014 · -14.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Black 18% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 4% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harford

• 2024 margin: R (+13.8) · D 41.9% · R 55.7% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +5.0pp toward D · 2008: -18.8pp · 2024: -13.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.8 2020: R+12.0 2016: R+24.5 2012: R+19.5 2008: R+18.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -176.25%
• Current HPI: 251.4376
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.12%
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+242.8% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-19 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-17 Listed $315,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-17 Coming Soon $315,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2017-01-12 Sold (Public Records) $195,000 Public Records
• 2017-01-09 Sold (MLS) $195,000 MRIS
• 2017-01-09 Sold (MLS) $195,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2016-12-01 Pending — MRIS
• 2016-11-18 Listed $195,000 MRIS
• 1996-08-31 Sold (MLS) $94,400 MRIS
• 1996-06-13 Delisted — MRIS
• 1996-05-21 Listed $94,400 MRIS
• 1989-05-04 Sold (Public Records) $91,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,588 · +7.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.