33000 Cape Kiwanda Dr Unit Cottage 16, Primary Wk 37 · Pacific City, OR 97135

$79,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 900 sqft · SingleFamily · 16 Days on market

Built 2007 Excellent condition 1.99 ac lot $400/mo HOA · 20% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.4/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Oceanfront fractional ownership in rare dog-friendly Cottage 16, located just steps from the beach and adjacent to Headlands Coastal Lodge & Spa. Includes access to Headlands amenities, including Spa, workout facility, steam rooms, and outdoor hot tub. 3-weeks-per-year ownership with Primary Week (fixed week) 37 in mid-September + 2 other weeks are picked annually per use plan. Premium construction & finishes, amazing one-of-a-kind location at Cape Kiwanda.

Key facts

• Oceanfront
• Access to amenities
• Outdoor hot tub

Tags

• OCEANFRONT
• DOG-FRIENDLY
• ACCESS TO AMENITIES
• OUTDOOR HOT TUB
• ONE-OF-A-KIND LOCATION

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Community features include curbs, street lights and sidewalks; Paved county road frontage; Postal code 97135
• HOA & community: Part of a homeowners association (Kiwanda Cottages HOA); Annual association fee; Association amenities include fitness center, spa/hot tub and beach access; Association fee covers cable TV, electricity, insurance, internet, grounds and structure maintenance, pest control, sewer, trash, water, utilities and property taxes for common areas

Exterior

• Parking: Attached carport with 1 carport space; Additional parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Propane available; Cable, phone, and internet connected; Underground utilities
• Home design: One-level layout; 2 total stories; Built in 2007; Composition roof; Cedar and shingle siding
• Construction: Cedar and shingle siding; Composition roof; Built in 2007
• Exterior features: Rear patio; Waterfront property with water views

Interior

• Kitchen: Down draft; Range (propane); Range hood; Microwave; Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Disposal
• Bedrooms: Bedroom 2
• Flooring: Carpet; Slate; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Has heating; Central air; Gas/propane fireplace
• Interior features: Jetted tub; Insulated windows with blinds; Furnished
• Laundry & utility: Stacked washer/dryer; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $79k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $652 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $79k).
• Recommended offer: $78k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.2% vs local median 1.8% in Pacific City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#173 in OR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment B, housing B; Watch: commute D+, health & safety D+, schools F.
• Nestucca Valley SD 101J (rural): math 33% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #101 of 183 in OR (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 116 active listings in the ZIP; 86 units permitted in Tillamook County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($546 loan paydown + $576 appreciation (0.7% local appreciation)).
• Tillamook County population projected at +3% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (0.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($78k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $77,815 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.56% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.20%
• Cash-on-cash: 35.37%
• DSCR: 2.57
• GRM: 3.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $43,200
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
33000 Cape Kiwanda Dr Unit 10 Wk 29	0.02mi	2/2.0	985 (+9%)	12mo	$45,916	$47	74
33000 Cape Kiwanda Dr Unit 3WK29	0.04mi	2/2.0	985 (+9%)	11mo	$47,000	$48	73
33000 Cape Kiwanda Dr Unit 3 Wk 29	0.05mi	2/2.0	985 (+9%)	13mo	$47,000	$48	71
33000 Cape Kiwanda Dr	0.02mi	2/2.0	985 (+9%)	22mo	$53,500	$54	65
5935 Pine St	0.24mi	2/1.0	804 (-11%)	19mo	$690,000	$858	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.73% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 37.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.91×
• Total profit: $42,242
• Equity at exit: $25,862

10-year hold

• IRR: 40.0%
• Equity multiple: 5.74×
• Total profit: $104,950
• Equity at exit: $33,527

Cash invested: $22,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97135

• Home prices YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 116
• Price-to-rent: 3.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,023 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$414
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$99 /mo · $1,185/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$400
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$425
• Net cashflow: $652

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,197

Max offer price $79,000

Occupancy floor 63%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $707	-5% $679	+0% $652	+5% $625	+10% $597
Rent	-10% $492	-5% $572	+0% $652	+5% $732	+10% $812
Rate	-1.0pp $692	-0.5pp $672	base $652	+0.5pp $632	+1.0pp $611

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,750
• Closing costs: $2,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $400 · $4,800/yr

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $79,000 Active 16 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $79,000 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $79,000 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $79,000 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $79,000 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $79,000 Active 9 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $79,000 Active 8 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $79,000 Active 5 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $79,000 Active 4 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $79,000 Active 3 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    remarks 465-char remark
12. 2026-06-07
    listed $79,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 8 d/yr ≥77°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 11 unhealthy d/yr today · 11 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,273
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,425
• − Property taxes: −$1,185
• − Insurance: −$395
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,942
• − Management: −$1,942
• − HOA: −$4,800
• − Depreciation: −$2,298
• Taxable income: $7,286
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,749
• After-tax cash flow: $6,076/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This oceanfront cottage is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers premium amenities and a stunning location, making it a top investment opportunity.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Upgrade to smart home automation — Enhances convenience and energy efficiency
• Both Add smart thermostat — Improves energy efficiency and comfort
• Both Install smart locks — Enhances security and convenience

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Upgrade to smart home automation — Enhances convenience and energy efficiency ↑
• Both Add smart thermostat — Improves energy efficiency and comfort ↑
• Both Install smart locks — Enhances security and convenience ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Nestucca Valley SD 101J
• NCES district ID: 4108700
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $41,958
• Composite: 37.3/100
• National rank: #8956
• State rank: #101 of 183 in OR

Livability — Pacific City

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #173
• US rank: #10340

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D+ Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment B Housing B Health & safety D+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pacific City, OR
• City population: 1,505
• Population (ZIP): 1,505

Population outlook (Tillamook County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 26,318 people
• By 2030: 26,603 · +1.1%
• By 2040: 26,898 · +2.2%
• By 2050: 27,129 · +3.1%
• By 2075: 27,858 · +5.9%
• By 2100: 26,212 · -0.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 8% Italian 5% Romanian 5%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Tillamook

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.9% · R 49.2% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.2pp toward R · 2008: 9.9pp · 2024: -1.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.4 2020: R+1.7 2016: R+5.9 2012: D+4.7 2008: D+9.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.73%
• Current HPI: 197.7747
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listed $79,000 OCMLS