386 Lake Louise Marie Rd · Rock Hill, NY 12775

$325,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,614 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 25 Days on market

Built 1965 5,810 sqft lot Est $397k · 18% under $85/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.6/30.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks

Beautifully updated and meticulously maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath ranch-style home located in the desirable Lake Louise Marie community in the heart of Sullivan County. Lightly used and move-in ready, this home offers comfortable one-level living with modern upgrades throughout. The spacious open-concept living and family room features a beautiful fireplace, abundant natural light, and glass sliders leading to a private patio and backyard, perfect for relaxing or entertaining. Just a step up, you’ll find an oversized dining area and updated kitchen complete with abundant cabinetry, a large center island, and ample windows creating a bright and airy feel throughout. The home features t

Key facts

• Private patio
• Private yard
• Abundant cabinetry

Tags

• UPDATED RANCH STYLE HOME
• OPEN CONCEPT FAMILY ROOM
• PRIVATE PATIO
• PRIVATE YARD
• OVERSIZED OPEN DINING ROOM
• ABUNDANT CABINETRY

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Monthly association fee of $85; Association includes common area maintenance and pool service

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Security: Security system
• Utilities: Public sewer; Electricity connected; Water connected
• Home design: Single family residence
• Construction: Vinyl siding construction
• Exterior features: Vinyl siding; Security system; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Open kitchen layout
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 7
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning; Ductless cooling
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom; First-floor full bathroom; Cathedral ceilings; Open floor plan; Open kitchen; Primary bathroom; Recessed lighting
• Laundry & utility: No basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $325k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-393 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $256k (21.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $250k (23.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $250k (23.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 2.6% in Rock Hill — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#478 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Monticello Central School District (town): math 29% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #577 of 590 in NY (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Emma C Chase School (math 32% / reading 47%, grade F, #1,444 of 2,108 statewide, top 71%, 228 students, 57% FRL); Robert J Kaiser Middle School (math 7% / reading 35%, grade F, #661 of 729 statewide, top 91%, 595 students, 66% FRL); Monticello High School (math 82% / reading 34%, grade C, #879 of 1,100 statewide, top 80%, 844 students, 63% FRL).
• Market conditions: 62 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 739 units permitted in Sullivan County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $35k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $32k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Sullivan County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$56k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($320k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $73k; list at $325k implies a 345% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $250,000 (23.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.84%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.18%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $397,044
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
394 Lake Louise Marie Rd	0.03mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,539 (-5%)	11mo	$366,000	$238	72
25 Crescent Vw	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,600 (-1%)	4mo	$322,000	$201	71
149 Wurtsboro Mountain Rd	0.42mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,608 (-0%)	10mo	$430,000	$267	62
20 Crescent Vw	0.51mi	3/2.5	1,466 (-9%)	2mo	$290,000	$198	57
62 Picadilly Cir	0.55mi	3/2.5	1,664 (+3%)	22mo	$535,000	$322	49
9 Crescent Cir	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,462 (-9%)	12mo	$374,900	$256	46
249 Lake Louise Marie Rd	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,478 (-8%)	20mo	$364,000	$246	40
1 Crescent Vw	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,850 (+15%)	21mo	$355,000	$192	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.67×
• Total profit: $152,084
• Equity at exit: $292,786

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.8%
• Equity multiple: 6.14×
• Total profit: $467,773
• Equity at exit: $631,404

Cash invested: $91,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12775

• Home prices YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 62
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,500 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,704
• Tax from tax record: −$443 /mo · $5,319/yr
• Insurance: −$135
• HOA: −$85
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$525
• Net cashflow: $-393

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,997

Max offer price $255,571

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-209	-5% $-301	+0% $-393	+5% $-485	+10% $-577
Rent	-10% $-591	-5% $-492	+0% $-393	+5% $-294	+10% $-196
Rate	-1.0pp $-229	-0.5pp $-310	base $-393	+0.5pp $-477	+1.0pp $-563

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $81,250
• Closing costs: $9,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15 Norfolk Ct Rock Hill, NY	4.0	2.0	1726	$2,500	$1.45	44d	1	0.96mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $85 · $1,020/yr

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $325,000 Active 25 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $325,000 Active 24 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $325,000 Active 23 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $325,000 Active 22 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $325,000 Active 20 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $325,000 Active 17 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $325,000 Active 16 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $325,000 Active 15 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $325,000 Active 14 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $325,000 Active 10 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $325,000 Active 9 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $336,000 Active 8 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $336,000 Active 7 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $336,000 Active 6 DOM
15. 2026-05-24
    listed $336,000 Active
16. 2000-05-23
    soldstatus $73,000
17. 1987-11-18
    soldstatus $115,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,319 · $443/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,406 · $450/mo
• Expected delta: +$87/yr (+$7/mo · 1.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 7% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,205
• − Property taxes: −$5,319
• − Insurance: −$1,625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,400
• − Management: −$2,400
• − HOA: −$1,020
• − Depreciation: −$9,455
• Taxable loss: −$10,424
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,502
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,215/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Monticello Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3619740
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $44,696
• Composite: 25.28/100
• National rank: #7491
• State rank: #577 of 590 in NY

Livability — Rock Hill

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #478
• US rank: #8452

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rock Hill, NY
• City population: 2,661
• Population (ZIP): 2,661

Population outlook (Sullivan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 68,974 people
• By 2030: 65,609 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 58,878 · -14.6%
• By 2050: 52,500 · -23.9%
• By 2075: 39,941 · -42.1%
• By 2100: 28,880 · -58.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 9% Black 5% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Italian 4% Scotch-Irish 4%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Sullivan

• 2024 margin: R (+16.7) · D 41.6% · R 58.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.2pp toward R · 2008: 9.5pp · 2024: -16.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.7 2020: R+9.2 2016: R+13.7 2012: D+10.4 2008: D+9.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 11.12%
• Current HPI: 437.7751
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+192.2% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-24 Listed $336,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2000-05-23 Sold (Public Records) $73,000 Public Records
• 1987-11-18 Sold (Public Records) $115,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,319 · +2.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.