Margaux Plan · Manvel, TX 77583

$325,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,878 sqft · SingleFamily · 138 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.0/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• 1% rule +1.3/10.0
• DSCR +0.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Chateau Collection | The Margaux | 1,878 Sq. Ft. | Two Story | 3 Bedrooms | 2.

Key facts

• Covered balcony
• Covered patio
• 2 parking spots

Tags

• COVERED BALCONY
• COVERED PATIO

🏗️ New construction. The $325,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $415,325.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $326k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-863 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $290k (10.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $263k (19.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $263k (19.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.0% vs local median 2.6% in Manvel — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#544 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Alvin ISD (suburban): math 39% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #255 of 826 in TX (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1917 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 140d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 80% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 3,960 units permitted in Brazoria County in 2024 (593 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brazoria County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 138 days — a 12% lower offer ($287k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $262,536 (19.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 138 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.63% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.99%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.22%
• DSCR: 0.63
• GRM: 13.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $415,325
• List price: $325,990
• Delta: -21.51%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10115 Palm Springs Pl	0.40mi	3/2.5	1,878 (0%)	2mo	$350,000	$186	79
10107 Palm Springs Pl	0.39mi	3/2.5	1,866 (-1%)	2mo	$330,000	$177	79
10127 Palm Springs Pl	0.42mi	3/2.5	1,878 (0%)	4mo	$350,000	$186	77
5235 Palo Verde Dr	0.37mi	3/2.5	1,838 (-2%)	3mo	$325,000	$177	77
10102 Palm Springs Pl	0.39mi	3/2.5	1,901 (+1%)	4mo	$347,990	$183	76
10131 Palm Springs Pl	0.43mi	3/2.5	1,901 (+1%)	4mo	$365,000	$192	74
5303 Palo Verde Dr	0.36mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,910 (+2%)	1mo	$340,000	$178	74
5251 Palo Verde Dr	0.36mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,910 (+2%)	4mo	$335,000	$175	72
5227 Palo Verde Dr	0.36mi	3/2.5	1,977 (+5%)	3mo	$325,000	$164	72
5215 Getty Ln	0.54mi	3/2.5	1,872 (-0%)	4mo	$361,000	$193	71
4946 Hitchings Ct	0.40mi	3/2.0	2,141 (+14%)	3mo	$336,000	$157	54
5210 Getty Ln	0.55mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,753 (-7%)	4mo	$346,990	$198	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.44% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -35.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.11×
• Total profit: $-128,756
• Equity at exit: $61,926

10-year hold

• IRR: -65.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.79×
• Total profit: $-208,244
• Equity at exit: $35,910

Cash invested: $116,291 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 173 active · 54 under contract
• Months of supply: 26.6 mo (4%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $382,990 ($198/sqft)
• Median days on market: 160 d
• This list price: 14% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +11.7% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77583

• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 1917
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,625 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,178
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$519 /mo · $6,230/yr
• Insurance: −$173
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$551
• Net cashflow: $-863

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,717

Max offer price $290,499

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-576	-5% $-719	+0% $-863	+5% $-1,006	+10% $-1,150
Rent	-10% $-1,070	-5% $-966	+0% $-863	+5% $-759	+10% $-655
Rate	-1.0pp $-653	-0.5pp $-757	base $-863	+0.5pp $-970	+1.0pp $-1,080

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $103,831
• Closing costs: $12,460
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5602 Caracara St Manvel, TX	2.0	2.0	1892	$2,200	$1.16	56d	1	0.27mi
9510 Turnstone Dr Arcola, TX	2.0	2.0	1892	$2,495	$1.32	140d	1	0.33mi
5714 Caracara St Arcola, TX	3.0	2.0	2518	$2,750	$1.09	143d	1	0.35mi
10035 Crescendo Way Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.0	1446	$2,275	$1.57	115d	1	0.41mi
9623 Wright Dr Manvel, TX	4.0	3.0	2548	$3,600	$1.41	165d	1	0.44mi
5123 Morrison Dr Unit Labs Manvel, TX	4.0	3.0	2209	$2,800	$1.27	29d	1	0.49mi
4143 Champlain Way Iowa Colony, TX	3.0	3.0	1839	$2,400	$1.31	10d	1	1.38mi
10327 Armstrong Dr Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.0	1956	$2,291	$1.17	184d	1	1.42mi
10526 Cabot Trl Iowa Colony, TX	3.0	2.5	1927	$2,500	$1.30	99d	1	1.47mi
4018 Champlain Way Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.5	1897	$1,500	$0.79	148d	1	1.49mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $325,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces
• Home design: Single-family home (Margaux plan)Located in Manvel, TX
• Construction: Built 2026 (new construction)
• Exterior features: New construction — Margaux planLiving area about 1,878

Interior

• Kitchen: Planned kitchen in Margaux floor plan
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom
• Interior features: Open living area (plan)

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $325,990 Active 138 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $325,990 Active 137 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $325,990 Active 136 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $325,990 Active 135 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $325,990 Active 134 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $325,990 Active 132 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $325,990 Active 131 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $325,990 Active 130 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $325,990 Active 129 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $325,990 Active 128 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $325,990 Active 127 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $325,990 Active 126 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $325,990 Active 125 DOM
14. 2026-10-26
    days on market $325,990 Active 124 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $325,990 Active 123 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $325,990 Active 122 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $325,990 Active 121 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $325,990 Active 120 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $325,990 Active 119 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $325,990 Active 118 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $325,990 Active 117 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $325,990 Active 116 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $325,990 Active 115 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $325,990 Active 114 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $325,990 Active 113 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $325,990 Active 112 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $325,990 Active 111 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $325,990 Active 110 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $325,990 Active 109 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $325,990 Active 108 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $325,990 Active 107 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $325,990 Active 106 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $325,990 Active 105 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $325,990 Active 104 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $325,990 Active 103 DOM
36. 2026-10-03
    days on market $325,990 Active 102 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $325,990 Active 101 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $325,990 Active 100 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $325,990 Active 99 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $325,990 Active 98 DOM
41. 2026-09-28
    days on market $325,990 Active 97 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $325,990 Active 96 DOM
43. 2026-09-26
    days on market $325,990 Active 95 DOM
44. 2026-09-25
    days on market $325,990 Active 94 DOM
45. 2026-09-24
    days on market $325,990 Active 93 DOM
46. 2026-09-23
    days on market $325,990 Active 92 DOM
47. 2026-09-22
    days on market $325,990 Active 91 DOM
48. 2026-09-21
    days on market $325,990 Active 90 DOM
49. 2026-09-20
    days on market $325,990 Active 89 DOM
50. 2026-09-19
    days on market $325,990 Active 88 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,504
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,265
• − Property taxes: −$6,230
• − Insurance: −$2,874
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,520
• − Management: −$2,520
• − Depreciation: −$12,082
• Taxable loss: −$17,987
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,317
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,035/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $9,390–$28,170 screening

This home is in excellent condition with minimal repairs needed. It is move-in ready and would benefit from some cosmetic updates to further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both New flooring in bathrooms and kitchen — Improves functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Both New windows and doors — Enhances energy efficiency and curb appeal ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alvin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4808090
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $66,740
• Composite: 38.96/100
• National rank: #4080
• State rank: #255 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 67/100

Livability — Manvel

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #544
• US rank: #10576

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Manvel, TX
• County: Brazoria County · 420,414 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 52,747
• Household income: $119,287
• Rent vs Own: 9.8% rent · 90.2% own

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Population outlook (Brazoria County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,414 people
• By 2030: 457,585 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 532,232 · +26.6%
• By 2050: 605,399 · +44.0%
• By 2075: 779,358 · +85.4%
• By 2100: 883,759 · +110.2%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 38% Black 34% White 20% Two or more races 18% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31% Puerto Rican 2%
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Vietnamese 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Brazoria

• 2024 margin: R (+19.7) · D 39.5% · R 59.2% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: -29.6pp · 2024: -19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.7 2020: R+18.2 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+34.2 2008: R+29.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -120.19%
• Current HPI: 198.6559
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.44%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $325,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces
• Home design: Single-family home (Margaux plan)Located in Manvel, TX
• Construction: Built 2026 (new construction)
• Exterior features: New construction — Margaux planLiving area about 1,878

Interior

• Kitchen: Planned kitchen in Margaux floor plan
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom
• Interior features: Open living area (plan)