103 E 4th St · Carrollton, MO 64633

$62,500

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,164 sqft · Other · 329 Days on market

Built 1945 0.26 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This 4 bed, 1 bath property presents an excellent opportunity for investors or buyers looking to add value through updates and renovations. The home offers a solid structure and a functional layout, on large lot with tons of privacy. Currently occupied by long-term tenants who would love to remain, this property offers immediate rental income and a seamless transition. Tenants have been reliable and have taken good care of the home, providing a steady cash flow while you plan your improvements.

Key facts

• Tons of privacy
• Steady cash flow
• Large lot

Tags

• LARGE LOT
• TONS OF PRIVACY
• IMMEDIATE RENTAL INCOME
• STEADY CASH FLOW

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $62k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $451 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $62k).
• Recommended offer: $55k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.9% vs local median 4.6% in Carrollton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#80 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Carrollton R-VII (town): math 31% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #178 of 324 in MO (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 37 active listings in the ZIP; 24 units permitted in Carroll County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($432 loan paydown + $6k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Carroll County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 329 days — a 12% lower offer ($55k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 12y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $8k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1945 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $55,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 329 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1945 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.71% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.95%
• Cash-on-cash: 30.92%
• DSCR: 2.38
• GRM: 4.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 47.8%
• Equity multiple: 4.59×
• Total profit: $62,750
• Equity at exit: $56,305

10-year hold

• IRR: 41.6%
• Equity multiple: 10.27×
• Total profit: $162,193
• Equity at exit: $121,424

Cash invested: $17,500 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 64633

• Home prices YoY: 18.8%
• Active inventory: 37
• Price-to-rent: 4.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,072 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$328
• Tax from tax record: −$42 /mo · $505/yr
• Insurance: −$26
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$225
• Net cashflow: $451

Break-even live

Break-even rent $501

Max offer price $62,500

Occupancy floor 53%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $486	-5% $469	+0% $451	+5% $433	+10% $415
Rent	-10% $366	-5% $409	+0% $451	+5% $493	+10% $536
Rate	-1.0pp $482	-0.5pp $467	base $451	+0.5pp $435	+1.0pp $418

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $15,625
• Closing costs: $1,875
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-01
   days on market $62,500 Active 329 DOM
2. 2026-05-31
   days on market $62,500 Active 328 DOM
3. 2026-01-06
   status Active 499-char remark

   Show marketing remark (499 chars)

   This 4 bed, 1 bath property presents an excellent opportunity for investors or buyers looking to add value through updates and renovations. The home offers a solid structure and a functional layout, on large lot with tons of privacy. Currently occupied by long-term tenants who would love to remain, this property offers immediate rental income and a seamless transition. Tenants have been reliable and have taken good care of the home, providing a steady cash flow while you plan your improvements.

4. 2026-01-06
   price $62,500 499-char remark

   Show marketing remark (499 chars)

   This 4 bed, 1 bath property presents an excellent opportunity for investors or buyers looking to add value through updates and renovations. The home offers a solid structure and a functional layout, on large lot with tons of privacy. Currently occupied by long-term tenants who would love to remain, this property offers immediate rental income and a seamless transition. Tenants have been reliable and have taken good care of the home, providing a steady cash flow while you plan your improvements.

5. 2025-12-31
   historical 499-char remark

   Show marketing remark (499 chars)

   This 4 bed, 1 bath property presents an excellent opportunity for investors or buyers looking to add value through updates and renovations. The home offers a solid structure and a functional layout, on large lot with tons of privacy. Currently occupied by long-term tenants who would love to remain, this property offers immediate rental income and a seamless transition. Tenants have been reliable and have taken good care of the home, providing a steady cash flow while you plan your improvements.

6. 2025-07-01
   listed $70,000 Active 499-char remark

   Show marketing remark (499 chars)

   This 4 bed, 1 bath property presents an excellent opportunity for investors or buyers looking to add value through updates and renovations. The home offers a solid structure and a functional layout, on large lot with tons of privacy. Currently occupied by long-term tenants who would love to remain, this property offers immediate rental income and a seamless transition. Tenants have been reliable and have taken good care of the home, providing a steady cash flow while you plan your improvements.

7. 2025-02-10
   historical
8. 2024-12-17
   price $59,900
9. 2024-10-01
   price $70,000
10. 2024-04-01
    listed $80,000 Active
11. 2015-02-12
    historical
12. 2014-11-24
    listed $29,400

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $505 · $42/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $606 · $51/mo
• Expected delta: +$102/yr (+$8/mo · 20.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,862
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,501
• − Property taxes: −$505
• − Insurance: −$312
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,029
• − Management: −$1,029
• − Depreciation: −$1,818
• Taxable income: $4,668
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,120
• After-tax cash flow: $4,290/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Carrollton R-VII
• NCES district ID: 2907380
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $39,568
• Composite: 32.2/100
• National rank: #5779
• State rank: #178 of 324 in MO

Livability — Carrollton

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #80
• US rank: #5324

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Carrollton, MO
• City population: 4,504
• Population (ZIP): 4,504

Population outlook (Carroll County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 8,269 people
• By 2030: 7,866 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 7,021 · -15.1%
• By 2050: 6,213 · -24.9%
• By 2075: 4,619 · -44.1%
• By 2100: 3,249 · -60.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Carroll

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+64.5) · D 17.4% · R 81.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -33.2pp toward R · 2008: -31.3pp · 2024: -64.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+64.5 2020: R+64.4 2016: R+62.7 2012: R+44.6 2008: R+31.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 42.87%
• Current HPI: 271.4099
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+112.6% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-06 Relisted — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-06 Price Changed $62,500 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-31 Listing Removed — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-01 Listed $70,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-10 Listing Removed — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-12-17 Price Changed $59,900 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-10-01 Price Changed $70,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-04-01 Listed $80,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-02-12 Listing Removed — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-11-24 Listed $29,400 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

-1.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $505 · +0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.