8500 Kern Canyon Rd · East Niles, CA 93306

$45,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,260 sqft · Land · 24 Days on market

Built 1975

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this charming 2-bedroom, 2-bath home located in a beautifully maintained 55+ community! Offering a spacious and comfortable layout, this home features generous living areas perfect for relaxing. The home sits inside a nice, clean, and well-kept park known for its peaceful atmosphere and pride of ownership. Residents enjoy outstanding community amenities, including: Sparkling pool & relaxing spa, Recreation hall for events and gatherings, Beautifully maintained grounds, And much more!

Key facts

• Built 1975
• Listed 24 days

Tags

• BRAND NEW HVAC SYSTEM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $45k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $960 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $45k).
• Recommended offer: $44k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 31.9% vs local median 4.4% in East Niles — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Kern High (urban): math 21% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #860 of 1,400 in CA (top 61%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.2%/yr); 387 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,244 units permitted in Kern County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $311 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kern County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.2% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($44k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $35k; 29% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 4→11/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $44,325 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.65% ✓
• Cap rate: 31.89%
• Cash-on-cash: 91.41%
• DSCR: 5.07
• GRM: 2.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.24% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 91.3%
• Equity multiple: 5.18×
• Total profit: $52,635
• Equity at exit: $6,710

10-year hold

• IRR: 94.0%
• Equity multiple: 10.50×
• Total profit: $119,683
• Equity at exit: $3,891

Cash invested: $12,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93306

• Rents YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 387
• Price-to-rent: 2.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,641 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$236
• Tax from tax record: −$82 /mo · $981/yr
• Insurance: −$19
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$345
• Net cashflow: $960

Break-even live

Break-even rent $426

Max offer price $45,000

Occupancy floor 37%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $985	-5% $973	+0% $960	+5% $947	+10% $934
Rent	-10% $830	-5% $895	+0% $960	+5% $1,025	+10% $1,089
Rate	-1.0pp $982	-0.5pp $971	base $960	+0.5pp $948	+1.0pp $936

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,250
• Closing costs: $1,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3217 Fortier St Unit B Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	1072	$1,650	$1.54	3d	1	0.42mi
600 Morning Dr Unit 661-363-6434 Bakersfield, CA	3.0	1.0	1054	$1,067	$1.01	44d	1	0.75mi
600 Morning Dr Unit 661-363-6434 Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.0	884	$1,005	$1.14	3d	1	0.75mi
7000 College Ave Apt 168 Bakersfield, CA	2.0	2.0	957	$1,655	$1.73	20d	1	0.97mi
8817 Butternut Ave Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	1383	$2,200	$1.59	3d	1	0.98mi
9802 Krista Vineyard Way Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	1300	$2,195	$1.69	3d	1	1.40mi
6900 Valleyview Dr Apt 127 Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.5	975	$1,535	$1.57	44d	1	1.49mi
6900 Valleyview Dr Unit 152 Bakersfield, CA	2.0	2.0	1040	$1,610	$1.55	3d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $45,000 Active 24 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $45,000 Active 23 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $45,000 Active 22 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $45,000 Active 21 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $45,000 Active 19 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $45,000 Active 16 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $45,000 Active 15 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $45,000 Active 14 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $45,000 Active 13 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $45,000 Active 10 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $45,000 Active 9 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $45,000 Active 8 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $45,000 Active 7 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $45,000 Active 6 DOM
15. 2026-05-26
    listed $45,000 Active
16. 2026-04-23
    soldstatus $35,000 Sold 505-char remark

    Show marketing remark (505 chars)

    Welcome to this charming 2-bedroom, 2-bath home located in a beautifully maintained 55+ community! Offering a spacious and comfortable layout, this home features generous living areas perfect for relaxing. The home sits inside a nice, clean, and well-kept park known for its peaceful atmosphere and pride of ownership. Residents enjoy outstanding community amenities, including: Sparkling pool & relaxing spa, Recreation hall for events and gatherings, Beautifully maintained grounds, And much more!

17. 2026-03-31
    historical 505-char remark

    Show marketing remark (505 chars)

    Welcome to this charming 2-bedroom, 2-bath home located in a beautifully maintained 55+ community! Offering a spacious and comfortable layout, this home features generous living areas perfect for relaxing. The home sits inside a nice, clean, and well-kept park known for its peaceful atmosphere and pride of ownership. Residents enjoy outstanding community amenities, including: Sparkling pool & relaxing spa, Recreation hall for events and gatherings, Beautifully maintained grounds, And much more!

18. 2026-03-23
    listed $35,000 505-char remark

    Show marketing remark (505 chars)

    Welcome to this charming 2-bedroom, 2-bath home located in a beautifully maintained 55+ community! Offering a spacious and comfortable layout, this home features generous living areas perfect for relaxing. The home sits inside a nice, clean, and well-kept park known for its peaceful atmosphere and pride of ownership. Residents enjoy outstanding community amenities, including: Sparkling pool & relaxing spa, Recreation hall for events and gatherings, Beautifully maintained grounds, And much more!

19. 2021-10-07
    soldstatus $63,000 311-char remark

    Show marketing remark (311 chars)

    Adorable mobile home built in 2005! Split-wing design around open concept living area. Large eat-in kitchen with lots of storage. Nicely landscaped front yard, privacy fenced in back yard with two large storage sheds, paver walk ways and garden area. 55+ community. Well maintained and ready for its new owners!

20. 2021-09-07
    listed $60,000 311-char remark

    Show marketing remark (311 chars)

    Adorable mobile home built in 2005! Split-wing design around open concept living area. Large eat-in kitchen with lots of storage. Nicely landscaped front yard, privacy fenced in back yard with two large storage sheds, paver walk ways and garden area. 55+ community. Well maintained and ready for its new owners!

21. 1980-11-21
    soldstatus $16,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $981 · $82/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $981 · $82/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 4 d/yr ≥105°F today · 11 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 34 unhealthy d/yr today · 40 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,691
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,521
• − Property taxes: −$981
• − Insurance: −$225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,575
• − Management: −$1,575
• − Depreciation: −$1,309
• Taxable income: $11,505
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,761
• After-tax cash flow: $8,757/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kern High
• NCES district ID: 0619540
• Math proficiency: 21% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,686
• Composite: 33.68/100
• National rank: #10443
• State rank: #860 of 1400 in CA

Livability — East Niles

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: East Niles, CA
• County: Kern County · 710,371 people
• Metro: Bakersfield, CA
• Population (ZIP): 74,116
• Household income: $69,805
• Rent vs Own: 36.2% rent · 63.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 2871.0

Population outlook (Kern County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 947,286 people
• By 2030: 978,984 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 1,045,018 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 1,105,232 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 1,229,538 · +29.8%
• By 2100: 1,238,059 · +30.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 67% White 23% Two or more races 20% Black 3% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 63%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1% Russian 1%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada
• Languages at home: 50% English-only · Spanish 46% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kern

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.1) · D 38.2% · R 59.3% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: -17.8pp · 2024: -21.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.1 2020: R+10.2 2016: R+15.0 2012: R+20.9 2008: R+17.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -323.02%
• Current HPI: 358.5434
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.24%
• Metro: Bakersfield, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+181.2% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $45,000 FSBO.com
• 2026-04-23 Sold (MLS) $35,000 GEMLS
• 2026-03-31 Delisted — GEMLS
• 2026-03-23 Listed $35,000 GEMLS
• 2021-10-07 Sold (MLS) $63,000 TAAR
• 2021-09-07 Listed $60,000 TAAR
• 1980-11-21 Sold (Public Records) $16,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-13.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $981 · +24.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.