10446 Keystone Rd · Welsh, LA 70591

$110,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,556 sqft · SingleFamily · 288 Days on market

Built 1974 1.96 ac lot ↓ 19% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.5/30.0
• DSCR +7.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• Appreciation +6.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

A Place in the Country - Your Private Retreat Awaits Discover the perfect blend of peace, privacy, and potential with this secluded country homestead--an ideal setting for family life or a personal retreat. Nestled in a tranquil rural setting, this spacious three-bedroom, potentially two-bathroom home offers the freedom and charm of country living with room to make it your own. With a touch of creativity and effort, this home can be transformed into a true gem. The expansive game room at the rear of the house offers endless possibilities--imagine it as your personal theater, a game hub with space for pool or ping-pong tables, or the ultimate poker night venue. The kitchen features durable,

Key facts

• Expansive game room
• Versatile office den
• Rich wood paneling

Tags

• PRIVATE RETREAT
• EXPANSIVE GAME ROOM
• PRIVATE SUITE
• RICH WOOD PANELING
• BUILT-IN SHELVING
• VERSATILE OFFICE DEN

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Directions provided by listing: Take exit 54 from I-10 E, take right onto LA-99 S/N Adams St in Welsh, turn left onto US-90 E/E Russell Ave, turn right onto LA-382, turn left onto LA-1126, turn right onto Keystone Rd; property on right
• HOA & community: No common interest or HOA

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Aerobic septic system; Electricity connected; Sewer connected; Water connected
• Home design: Single-family house; 2-story
• Exterior features: No patio or porch listed; Nearly 2-acre lot with irregular dimensions (approx. 182 x 480 x 189 x 460)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: No fireplace

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $110k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $206 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $110k).
• Recommended offer: $97k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#189 in LA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Jefferson Davis Parish (town): math 30% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #33 of 98 in LA (top 34%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Welsh Elementary School (math 47% / reading 47%, grade D-, #151 of 646 statewide, top 24%, 507 students, 67% FRL); Welsh-Roanoke Junior High School (math 28% / reading 41%, grade F, #93 of 218 statewide, top 43%, 204 students, 64% FRL); Welsh High School (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #127 of 265 statewide, top 49%, 280 students, 52% FRL).
• Market conditions: 45 active listings in the ZIP; 69 units permitted in Jefferson Davis Parish in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($761 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (1.9% local appreciation)).
• Jefferson Davis County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (1.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 288 days — a 12% lower offer ($97k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (19%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $96,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 288 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.02%
• DSCR: 1.36
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.94% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.66×
• Total profit: $20,320
• Equity at exit: $43,014

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.01×
• Total profit: $61,873
• Equity at exit: $61,656

Cash invested: $30,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Louisiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+12
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; no state rent control; civil-law jurisdiction; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 70591

• Home prices YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 45
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,215 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$577
• Tax from tax record: −$131 /mo · $1,572/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$255
• Net cashflow: $206

Break-even live

Break-even rent $954

Max offer price $110,000

Occupancy floor 78%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $268	-5% $237	+0% $206	+5% $175	+10% $144
Rent	-10% $110	-5% $158	+0% $206	+5% $254	+10% $302
Rate	-1.0pp $261	-0.5pp $234	base $206	+0.5pp $177	+1.0pp $148

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,500
• Closing costs: $3,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $110,000 Active 288 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $110,000 Active 286 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $110,000 Active 285 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $110,000 Active 284 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $110,000 Active 283 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $110,000 Active 282 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $110,000 Active 280 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $110,000 Active 279 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $110,000 Active 277 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $110,000 Active 276 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $110,000 Active 275 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $110,000 Active 274 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $110,000 Active 269 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $110,000 Active 268 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $110,000 Active 267 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $110,000 Active 266 DOM
17. 2026-05-18
    status Active
18. 2026-04-17
    status Pending
19. 2026-03-03
    price $110,000
20. 2025-08-09
    price $125,000
21. 2025-05-15
    listed $135,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast LA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,572 · $131/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,572 · $131/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,576
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,162
• − Property taxes: −$1,572
• − Insurance: −$550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,166
• − Management: −$1,166
• − Depreciation: −$3,200
• Taxable income: $760
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$182
• After-tax cash flow: $2,288/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jefferson Davis Parish
• NCES district ID: 2200810
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -39.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -33.00%
• Median HH income: $40,322
• Composite: 30.21/100
• National rank: #6302
• State rank: #33 of 98 in LA

Livability — Welsh

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #189
• US rank: #15036

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 5,635

Population outlook (Jefferson Davis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 31,015 people
• By 2030: 30,563 · -1.5%
• By 2040: 29,639 · -4.4%
• By 2050: 28,456 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 25,521 · -17.7%
• By 2100: 21,787 · -29.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Black 15% Two or more races 10%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 22% Italian 1%
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson Davis

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.1) · D 18.8% · R 79.9% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.5pp toward R · 2008: -39.7pp · 2024: -61.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.1 2020: R+55.4 2016: R+53.9 2012: R+47.6 2008: R+39.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.94%
• Current HPI: 174.2929
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.29%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Telecommunications	2	$23B
▸Utilities	1	$12B
▸Wholesale / Distribution	1	$5B
▸Advertising	1	$2B

Price history

-18.5% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Relisted — SWLAR
• 2026-04-17 Pending — SWLAR
• 2026-03-03 Price Changed $110,000 SWLAR
• 2025-08-09 Price Changed $125,000 SWLAR
• 2025-05-15 Listed $135,000 SWLAR

Property tax history

+9.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,572 · +0.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.