5228 Hill Dr · Lake Shastina, CA 96094

$275,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,368 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 78 Days on market

Built 1990 0.49 ac lot Est $283k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.3/30.0
• ARV discount +8.8/15.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Back on the market! This beautiful log home sits at the end of a quiet hilltop street in the Lake Shastina Community. The open concept living room kitchen and dining area has a soaring vaulted ceiling that captures the natural light with large window that capture the view of Mt Shasta. The main level features include large bedroom and bath and laundry room. There is a good sized loft upstairs with a large bath. View from loft is fantastic allowing you to take in the lake and nearby mountain's. The upper level balcony needs so repairs and is currently not safe to go out on. A bid for repairs is being developed and will be available to buyers upon request. Front windows take in the view and allow natural light to brighten up the house making the great room a welcoming space. The kitchen is small but functional. Front deck is wonderful in the morning to enjoy the view and the quiet setting. Home inspection available to pre qualified buyers Property was in contract in 2025 and canceled due to buyer's personal reasons not due to anything to do with home. Some photos have been digitally altered

Key facts

• 0.49 acre lot
• Built 1990
• Listed 77 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $275k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $51 ($617/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $220k (20.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $220k (20.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 3.5% in Lake Shastina — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Siskiyou Union High (rural): math 25% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #763 of 1,400 in CA (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 12% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 273 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 50 units permitted in Siskiyou County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Siskiyou County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 78 days — a 6% lower offer ($258k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $100k; list at $275k implies a 175% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $220,000 (20.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 78 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.80%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $283,176
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6630 Palmer Dr	0.31mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,454 (+6%)	2mo	$315,000	$217	68
4031 Rainbow Dr	0.15mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,475 (+8%)	22mo	$305,000	$207	57
4941 Rainbow Dr	0.26mi	2/2.0	1,216 (-11%)	16mo	$196,000	$161	56
5407 Stag Mountain Rd	0.33mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,450 (+6%)	23mo	$317,000	$219	50
4143 Rainbow Dr	0.12mi	2/1.0	1,166 (-15%)	22mo	$235,000	$202	48
6224 Palmer Dr	0.59mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,512 (+10%)	17mo	$275,000	$182	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-41,387
• Equity at exit: $41,003

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.58×
• Total profit: $-32,223
• Equity at exit: $23,777

Cash invested: $77,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 96094

• Active inventory: 273
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,200 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax from tax record: −$130 /mo · $1,559/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$462
• Net cashflow: $51

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,135

Max offer price $275,000

Occupancy floor 93%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,750
• Closing costs: $8,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5407 Stag Mountain Rd Weed, CA	3.0	2.0	1450	$2,200	$1.52	44d	1	0.35mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $275,000 Active 78 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $275,000 Active 77 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $275,000 Active 76 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $275,000 Active 75 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $275,000 Active 74 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $275,000 Active 72 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $275,000 Active 71 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $275,000 Active 68 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $275,000 Active 67 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $275,000 Active 66 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $275,000 Active 65 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $275,000 Active 64 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $275,000 Active 62 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $275,000 Active 61 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $275,000 Active 60 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $275,000 Active 59 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $275,000 Active 58 DOM
18. 2026-04-02
    listed $275,000 Active 1105-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1105 chars)

    Back on the market! This beautiful log home sits at the end of a quiet hilltop street in the Lake Shastina Community. The open concept living room kitchen and dining area has a soaring vaulted ceiling that captures the natural light with large window that capture the view of Mt Shasta. The main level features include large bedroom and bath and laundry room. There is a good sized loft upstairs with a large bath. View from loft is fantastic allowing you to take in the lake and nearby mountain's. The upper level balcony needs so repairs and is currently not safe to go out on. A bid for repairs is being developed and will be available to buyers upon request. Front windows take in the view and allow natural light to brighten up the house making the great room a welcoming space. The kitchen is small but functional. Front deck is wonderful in the morning to enjoy the view and the quiet setting. Home inspection available to pre qualified buyers Property was in contract in 2025 and canceled due to buyer's personal reasons not due to anything to do with home. Some photos have been digitally altered

19. 1994-04-25
    soldstatus $100,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,559 · $130/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,090 · $174/mo
• Expected delta: +$531/yr (+$44/mo · 34.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 31 unhealthy d/yr today · 34 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,404
• − Property taxes: −$1,559
• − Insurance: −$1,375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,112
• − Management: −$2,112
• − Depreciation: −$8,000
• Taxable loss: −$4,162
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$999
• After-tax cash flow: $1,616/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Siskiyou Union High
• NCES district ID: 0636940
• Math proficiency: 25% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $39,293
• Composite: 35.84/100
• National rank: #9605
• State rank: #763 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Lake Shastina

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake Shastina, CA
• Population (ZIP): 6,674

Population outlook (Siskiyou County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 39,337 people
• By 2030: 36,930 · -6.1%
• By 2040: 32,367 · -17.7%
• By 2050: 29,030 · -26.2%
• By 2075: 23,534 · -40.2%
• By 2100: 19,312 · -50.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 8% Black 4% Asian 4% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
• Common ancestry: Russian 4% Lithuanian 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Asian/Pacific 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Siskiyou

• 2024 margin: R (+19.2) · D 38.8% · R 58.0% · Other 3.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.8pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -19.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.2 2020: R+15.8 2016: R+20.7 2012: R+15.6 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -170.11%
• Current HPI: 152.605
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+175.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-02 Listed $275,000 SMLS
• 1994-04-25 Sold (Public Records) $100,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,559 · -2.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.