Dowing Plan · Elgin, TX 78621

$279,999

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,850 sqft · SingleFamily · 26 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +9.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This new four-bedroom home offers convenient single-story living. A bedroom is secluded near the front of the home, leading to an inviting and spacious open-concept layout shared between the kitchen, dining room and family room. Three additional bedrooms are tucked away to the side for improved comfort and privacy, including the lavish owner's suite at the back of the home with a full bathroom and walk-in closet.

Key facts

• Playgrounds
• Swimming pool
• Local shops

Tags

• SWIMMING POOL
• PLAYGROUNDS
• LOCAL SHOPS

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $284,999

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces; 2-car garage
• Home design: New construction plan; Located in Elgin, TX (By appointment only)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1,850

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan home (Dowing); Active listing

🏗️ New construction. The $279,999 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $273,800.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $280k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-175 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $248k (11.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $217k (22.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $217k (22.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 4.4% in Elgin — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#167 in TX, #4,404 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Elgin ISD (rural): math 17% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #741 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Neidig El (math 32% / reading 32%, grade F, #2,268 of 4,322 statewide, top 55%, 599 students, 79% FRL); Elgin Middle (math 22% / reading 24%, grade F, #1,327 of 1,662 statewide, top 81%, 780 students, 82% FRL); Elgin H S (math 12% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,264 of 1,632 statewide, top 82%, 1,672 students, 74% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 814 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 17,121 units permitted in Travis County in 2024 (11,963 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $29k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $27k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Travis County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$47k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($276k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $217,339 (22.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.53%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.74%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $273,800
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13413 Trumpet Creeper Dr	0.23mi	4/2.0	1,867 (+1%)	1mo	$266,999	$143	87
23813 Glowing Embers Dr	0.22mi	4/2.5	1,891 (+2%)	1mo	$258,999	$137	84
13317 Winton Dr	0.16mi	4/3.0	1,913 (+3%)	0mo	$286,999	$150	82
13301 Winton Dr	0.13mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,904 (+3%)	2mo	$277,000	$145	82
13313 Winton Dr	0.15mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,904 (+3%)	1mo	$290,000	$152	82
13320 Winton Dr	0.19mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,904 (+3%)	1mo	$268,000	$141	81
23409 Firelight Dr	0.17mi	4/2.5	1,954 (+6%)	2mo	$261,990	$134	79
13401 Trumpet Creeper Dr	0.21mi	4/2.5	1,954 (+6%)	2mo	$257,990	$132	77
23821 Glowing Embers Dr	0.23mi	4/2.0	1,667 (-10%)	1mo	$245,999	$148	72
23829 Glowing Embers Dr	0.26mi	4/2.0	1,667 (-10%)	2mo	$249,990	$150	70
13333 Trumpet Creeper Dr	0.21mi	4/2.0	1,600 (-14%)	2mo	$244,991	$153	66
13409 Trumpet Creeper Dr	0.23mi	4/2.0	1,575 (-15%)	1mo	$248,990	$158	64

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.80×
• Total profit: $138,256
• Equity at exit: $246,661

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.1%
• Equity multiple: 6.43×
• Total profit: $416,517
• Equity at exit: $531,933

Cash invested: $76,664 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78621

• Home prices YoY: 7.6%
• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 814
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,173 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,436
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$342 /mo · $4,107/yr
• Insurance: −$114
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$456
• Net cashflow: $-175

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,395

Max offer price $248,449

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $14	-5% $-81	+0% $-175	+5% $-270	+10% $-364
Rent	-10% $-347	-5% $-261	+0% $-175	+5% $-89	+10% $-3
Rate	-1.0pp $-37	-0.5pp $-106	base $-175	+0.5pp $-246	+1.0pp $-318

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,450
• Closing costs: $8,214
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13249 Illumination Rd Unit R3 Elgin, TX	4.0	3.0	2000	$560	$0.28	23d	1	0.17mi
13249 Illumination Rd Unit R2 Elgin, TX	4.0	3.0	2000	$600	$0.30	19d	1	0.17mi
23408 Tiny Moons Way Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	2000	$1,960	$0.98	22d	1	0.17mi
13249 Illumination Rd Unit R4 Elgin, TX	4.0	3.0	2000	$589	$0.29	45d	1	0.24mi
13305 Banquete St Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1707	$1,995	$1.17	45d	1	0.59mi
13501 Mussel Run Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,800	$1.08	18d	1	0.60mi
13124 Maidenhair Trl Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1448	$1,775	$1.23	18d	1	0.64mi
13124 Maidenhair Trl Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1448	$1,775	$1.23	25d	1	0.64mi
17812 Prairie Verbena Ln Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	2049	$2,199	$1.07	45d	1	0.65mi
13520 Knights Branch Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	1600	$1,850	$1.16	3d	1	0.72mi
13604 Menard Way Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,875	$1.27	25d	1	0.74mi
13725 Knights Branch Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	1800	$2,100	$1.17	25d	1	0.83mi
13804 Knights Branch Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	1427	$1,900	$1.33	6d	1	0.85mi
13121 Blackeyed Susan Trl Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1586	$1,800	$1.13	19d	1	0.88mi
14129 Tordillo Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	1874	$2,675	$1.43	25d	1	0.98mi
14129 Tordillo Dr Unit NA Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	1874	$2,495	$1.33	0d	1	0.98mi
13501 Sierra Wind Ln Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	2066	$2,500	$1.21	21d	1	1.35mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $279,999 Active 26 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $279,999 Active 23 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $279,999 Active 22 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $279,999 Active 21 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $279,999 Active 20 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $279,999 Active 18 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   price $279,999 Active 14 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $284,999 Active 14 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $284,999 Active 13 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $284,999 Active 12 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $284,999 Active 9 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $284,999 Active 8 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $284,999 Active 7 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $284,999 Active 6 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $284,999 Active 5 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,081
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,337
• − Property taxes: −$4,107
• − Insurance: −$1,369
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,086
• − Management: −$2,086
• − Depreciation: −$7,965
• Taxable loss: −$6,870
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,649
• After-tax cash flow: $-453/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elgin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4818360
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $55,176
• Composite: 19.62/100
• National rank: #8749
• State rank: #741 of 826 in TX

Livability — Elgin

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #167
• US rank: #4404

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Bastrop County · 68,601 people
• City population: 27,860
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,411
• Household income: $98,534
• Rent vs Own: 18.9% rent · 81.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 235.0

Population outlook (Travis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,545,133 people
• By 2030: 1,729,269 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 2,097,596 · +35.8%
• By 2050: 2,463,890 · +59.5%
• By 2075: 3,249,374 · +110.3%
• By 2100: 3,801,868 · +146.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 46% White 38% Two or more races 19% Black 11% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 36%

Political lean MEDSL · Travis

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+39.3) · D 68.8% · R 29.4% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: 29.4pp · 2024: 39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+39.3 2020: D+45.0 2016: D+38.9 2012: D+23.9 2008: D+29.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 29.47%
• Current HPI: 416.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.12%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B