523 Mccloud Ct · Jarrell, TX 76537

$207,999

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,535 sqft · SingleFamily · 13 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 7,840 sqft lot $136/sqft · 9% below area Est $228k · 9% under $100/mo HOA · 5% of rent ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.5/15.0
• Cash flow +11.1/30.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Cibola - The first floor of this two-story home is host to an open floorplan that combines a fully-equipped kitchen with the living and dining areas to maximize the footprint of the home. There are four bedrooms located upstairs, including the luxe owner’s suite, which is positioned at the back of the home for enhanced privacy and comfort. Photos are for illustrative purposes only. Estimated Completion August 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly.

Key facts

• 7,840 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Community pool

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association: Rancho Del Cielo; HOA fee $100 monthly (includes common area maintenance); Community features: playground, park, pool, trails/paths

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with driveway (1 covered parking space)
• Utilities: Electricity connected; Sewer connected (Municipal Utility District); Water connected (Municipal Utility District)
• Home design: Single-story home; Faces northwest; New construction (builder: Lennar)
• Construction: Built with HardiPlank-type siding; Composition/shingle roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Back yard; Front yard; Wood fencing; Community pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range
• Bedrooms: 4 main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central electric cooling
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Main-level primary suite; Walk-in closet(s)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry closet

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $208k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-83 ($-995/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $196k (5.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $184k (11.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $184k (11.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 4.7% in Jarrell — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#313 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Jarrell ISD (rural): math 19% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #713 of 826 in TX (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Jarrell El (math 19% / reading 27%, grade F, #3,277 of 4,322 statewide, top 77%, 785 students, 62% FRL); Jarrell Middle (math 21% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,258 of 1,662 statewide, top 77%, 741 students, 64% FRL); Jarrell H S (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,112 of 1,632 statewide, top 70%, 868 students, 58% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.7%/yr); 773 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 7,543 units permitted in Williamson County in 2024 (1,425 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Williamson County population projected at +69% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $184,117 (11.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.81%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.71%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $228,375
• List price: $207,999
• Delta: -8.92%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
527 Jones Beach Cv	0.04mi	4/2.0	1,600 (+4%)	1mo	$230,990	$144	90
506 Jones Beach Cv	0.10mi	4/2.0	1,600 (+4%)	1mo	$236,990	$148	88
433 Jones Beach Ln	0.20mi	4/2.0	1,483 (-3%)	1mo	$208,999	$141	84
417 Jones Beach Ln	0.22mi	4/2.0	1,483 (-3%)	1mo	$220,990	$149	83
436 Jones Beach Ln	0.21mi	4/2.0	1,600 (+4%)	1mo	$236,990	$148	82
405 Jones Beach Ln	0.24mi	4/2.0	1,483 (-3%)	1mo	$212,990	$144	82
510 Jones Beach Cv	0.09mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,411 (-8%)	1mo	$212,990	$151	77
519 Jones Beach Cv	0.06mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,402 (-9%)	2mo	$208,990	$149	76
121 Texas Angel Way	0.01mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,354 (-12%)	1mo	$198,999	$147	74
468 Jones Beach Ln	0.15mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,354 (-12%)	1mo	$220,990	$163	68
261 Kings Row Ln	0.15mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,354 (-12%)	1mo	$200,990	$148	67
420 Jones Beach Ln	0.24mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,354 (-12%)	1mo	$217,990	$161	63

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-44,292
• Equity at exit: $31,013

10-year hold

• IRR: -28.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.13×
• Total profit: $-65,858
• Equity at exit: $17,984

Cash invested: $58,240 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76537

• Home prices YoY: -14.4%
• Rents YoY: -1.7%
• Active inventory: 773
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,841 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,091
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$260 /mo · $3,120/yr
• Insurance: −$87
• HOA: −$100
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$387
• Net cashflow: $-83

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,946

Max offer price $196,002

Occupancy floor 100%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $61	-5% $-11	+0% $-83	+5% $-155	+10% $-227
Rent	-10% $-228	-5% $-156	+0% $-83	+5% $-10	+10% $63
Rate	-1.0pp $22	-0.5pp $-30	base $-83	+0.5pp $-137	+1.0pp $-192

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,000
• Closing costs: $6,240
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
136 Texas Angel Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,550	$1.07	6d	1	0.02mi
136 Texas Angel Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,495	$1.03	45d	1	0.02mi
112 Texas Angel Way Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1897	$1,890	$1.00	19d	1	0.02mi
133 Texas Angel Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1230	$1,500	$1.22	25d	1	0.03mi
337 Rancho del Cielo Loop Georgetown, TX	3.0	2.0	1411	$1,535	$1.09	22d	1	0.11mi
128 Hasty Heart Ct Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1606	$1,750	$1.09	0d	1	0.13mi
856 Rancho del Cielo Loop Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1447	$1,600	$1.11	45d	1	0.26mi
253 Tugboat Annie Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1380	$1,495	$1.08	16d	1	0.27mi
516 Rancho del Cielo Loop Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1274	$1,700	$1.33	45d	1	0.28mi
544 Rancho del Cielo Loop Georgetown, TX	4.0	2.0	1606	$1,800	$1.12	45d	1	0.29mi
564 Rancho del Cielo Loop Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,600	$1.26	4d	1	0.30mi
100 Tugboat Annie WAY Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.5	1984	$1,799	$0.91	45d	1	0.40mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $100 · $1,200/yr

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-13
   status Pending 541-char remark
2. 2026-05-05
   price $207,999 541-char remark
3. 2026-05-04
   price $217,999 541-char remark
4. 2026-04-30
   listed $221,999 Active 541-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,094
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,651
• − Property taxes: −$3,120
• − Insurance: −$1,040
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,768
• − Management: −$1,768
• − HOA: −$1,200
• − Depreciation: −$6,051
• Taxable loss: −$4,503
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,081
• After-tax cash flow: $86/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This two-story home is in excellent condition with modern finishes and a well-maintained exterior. It is move-in ready and would benefit from landscaping and interior painting to further enhance its appeal.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value for both resale and rental.
• Both Painting interior walls — Fresh paint can make the home feel new and attractive to potential buyers or renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value for both resale and rental. ↑
• Both Painting interior walls — Fresh paint can make the home feel new and attractive to potential buyers or renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jarrell ISD
• NCES district ID: 4824600
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $57,132
• Composite: 21.47/100
• National rank: #8335
• State rank: #713 of 826 in TX

Livability — Jarrell

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #313
• US rank: #7020

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Williamson County · 680,029 people
• City population: 16,272
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 16,272
• Household income: $98,199
• Rent vs Own: 20.5% rent · 79.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 225.0

Population outlook (Williamson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 699,027 people
• By 2030: 795,537 · +13.8%
• By 2040: 990,683 · +41.7%
• By 2050: 1,184,292 · +69.4%
• By 2075: 1,623,825 · +132.3%
• By 2100: 1,924,153 · +175.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Hispanic / Latino 36% Two or more races 14% Black 7% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 26% Chinese 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Williamson

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 50.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +10.6pp toward D · 2008: -13.0pp · 2024: -2.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.5 2020: D+1.4 2016: R+9.9 2012: R+21.5 2008: R+13.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.03%
• Current HPI: 184.8935
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.73%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-6.3% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Pending — Unlock MLS
• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $207,999 Unlock MLS
• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $217,999 Unlock MLS
• 2026-04-30 Listed $221,999 Unlock MLS