9848 State Route 812 · Croghan, NY 13327

$159,900

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 2,152 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1900 5,260 sqft lot Est $239k · 33% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.7/30.0
• Appreciation +5.3/10.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Step back in time with this charming late-1800s village home, lovingly occupied by the same owner for the past 76 years. A beautiful bay side and open staircase immediately hint at the home’s potential and original charm. The spacious layout includes an enormous second-floor bathroom that could easily be transformed into part of a stunning primary suite. The upstairs level, once utilized as an apartment and later part of the living space for a family of 12, offers flexibility for a variety of needs. The home is move-in ready and has been lovingly maintained, though most updates appear to date back to the 1970s. A clean, dry basement provides excellent storage and peace of mind and hou

Key facts

• Open staircase
• Panel box
• Clean dry basement

Tags

• OPEN STAIRCASE
• ENORMOUS SECOND-FLOOR BATHROOM
• FLEXIBLE LIVING SPACE
• CLEAN DRY BASEMENT
• NEW NATURAL GAS FURNACE
• PANEL BOX

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage; No driveway
• Utilities: Public water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single-story property; Resale property
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Blown-in insulation; Stone foundation; Existing (previously built)
• Exterior features: Rectangular residential lot; City street and main thoroughfare frontage; Lot dimensions approximately 49 x 106

Interior

• Bedrooms: One main-level bedroom
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl; Varied flooring
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One main-level bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating
• Interior features: Separate/formal dining room; Full basement
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-54 ($-643/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $150k (5.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $141k (11.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $141k (11.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#975 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D, crime F, amenities F.
• Beaver River Central School District (rural): math 38% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #458 of 590 in NY (top 78%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Beaver River Elementary School (math 27% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,646 of 2,108 statewide, top 80%, 413 students, 47% FRL); Beaver River Middle School (math 22% / reading 52%, grade F, #448 of 729 statewide, top 63%, 192 students, 53% FRL); Beaver River Senior High School (math 98% / reading 92%, grade A+, #93 of 1,100 statewide, top 10%, 266 students, 48% FRL) — zoned schools average 49% FRL vs 30% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 17 active listings in the ZIP; 110 units permitted in Lewis County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $1k appreciation (0.6% local appreciation)).
• Lewis County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $141,012 (11.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.34%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $238,872
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9862 State Route 812	0.04mi	4/2.0	2,350 (+9%)	20mo	$262,000	$111	64
9693 State Route 812	0.48mi	5/1.5 (+1)	2,240 (+4%)	3mo	$185,000	$83	63
6900 Convent St	0.37mi	4/2.5	2,194 (+2%)	16mo	$124,000	$57	63
6887 Shady Ave	0.37mi	4/2.0	1,880 (-13%)	22mo	$290,000	$154	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.63% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.93×
• Total profit: $-3,216
• Equity at exit: $51,555

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.44×
• Total profit: $19,617
• Equity at exit: $66,224

Cash invested: $44,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13327

• Home prices YoY: 0.2%
• Active inventory: 17
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,410 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$196 /mo · $2,352/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$296
• Net cashflow: $-54

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,478

Max offer price $150,428

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $37	-5% $-8	+0% $-54	+5% $-99	+10% $-144
Rent	-10% $-165	-5% $-109	+0% $-54	+5% $2	+10% $58
Rate	-1.0pp $27	-0.5pp $-13	base $-54	+0.5pp $-95	+1.0pp $-137

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,975
• Closing costs: $4,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $159,900 Active 7 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $159,900 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-19
   days on market $159,900 Active 4 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $159,900 Active 3 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $159,900 Active 2 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   remarks 693-char remark
7. 2026-06-16
   listed $159,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,352 · $196/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,527 · $211/mo
• Expected delta: +$175/yr (+$15/mo · 7.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,921
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,957
• − Property taxes: −$2,352
• − Insurance: −$1,597
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,354
• − Management: −$1,354
• − Depreciation: −$4,652
• Taxable loss: −$3,343
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$802
• After-tax cash flow: $159/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Beaver River Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3604200
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $46,542
• Composite: 38.67/100
• National rank: #4147
• State rank: #458 of 590 in NY

Livability — Croghan

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #975
• US rank: #19036

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Croghan, NY
• Population (ZIP): 1,956

Population outlook (Lewis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 26,126 people
• By 2030: 25,354 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 23,359 · -10.6%
• By 2050: 20,927 · -19.9%
• By 2075: 15,533 · -40.5%
• By 2100: 10,215 · -60.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (98%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 98%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 23% Romanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lewis

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+44.4) · D 27.8% · R 72.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -35.6pp toward R · 2008: -8.8pp · 2024: -44.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+44.4 2020: R+39.2 2016: R+39.6 2012: R+8.7 2008: R+8.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.63%
• Current HPI: 311.1777
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-13 Listed $159,900 CNYIS

Property tax history

+7.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,352 · +3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.