4730 Pine Tree Dr #11 · Miami Beach, FL 33140

$135,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 500 sqft · Condo public records · 47 Days on market

Built 1948 $550/mo HOA · 15% of rent ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.5/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Charming one-bedroom, one-bath residence located on prestigious Pine Tree Drive in Miami Beach. This bright and inviting unit features windows in every room, allowing for abundant natural light throughout the space. The home offers a thoughtful layout with wood flooring and mini-split A/C systems in each room. Situated within a beautifully landscaped waterfront boutique co-op originally built in 1948 and designed by noted architect Norman M. Giller, the property showcases classic post-war Miami Beach architecture. Residents enjoy a heated pool and deck overlooking scenic Surprise Lake, creating the perfect setting for relaxing sunsets. Ideally located just minutes from the beach, Lincoln Ro

Key facts

• Wood flooring
• Natural light
• Heated pool

Tags

• NATURAL LIGHT
• WOOD FLOORING
• MINI-SPLIT A/C SYSTEMS
• WATERFRONT BOUTIQUE CO-OP
• HEATED POOL
• DECK OVERLOOKING SURPRISE LAKE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $135k).
• Recommended offer: $131k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 20.2% vs local median 1.5% in Miami Beach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#108 in FL, #1,672 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: housing C-, amenities D-, cost of living F.
• Miami-Dade (suburban): math 45% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #40 of 73 in FL (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.5%/yr); 670 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 10,051 units permitted in Miami-Dade County in 2024 (7,758 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($107k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($933 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (1.0% local appreciation)).
• Miami-Dade County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (1.0% appreciation + 3.5% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 47 days — a 3% lower offer ($131k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; built in 1948 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $130,950 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 47 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1948 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.78% ✓
• Cap rate: 20.23%
• Cash-on-cash: 49.79%
• DSCR: 3.22
• GRM: 3.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.96% appreciation · 3.52% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 39.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.05×
• Total profit: $77,597
• Equity at exit: $45,841

10-year hold

• IRR: 42.1%
• Equity multiple: 6.21×
• Total profit: $196,913
• Equity at exit: $60,728

Cash invested: $37,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33140

• Home prices YoY: 0.3%
• Rents YoY: 3.5%
• Active inventory: 670
• Price-to-rent: 3.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,750 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax from tax record: −$80 /mo · $960/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$550
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$788
• Net cashflow: $1,142

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,305

Max offer price $135,000

Occupancy floor 65%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,218	-5% $1,180	+0% $1,142	+5% $1,104	+10% $1,065
Rent	-10% $846	-5% $994	+0% $1,142	+5% $1,290	+10% $1,438
Rate	-1.0pp $1,210	-0.5pp $1,176	base $1,142	+0.5pp $1,107	+1.0pp $1,071

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,750
• Closing costs: $4,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $550 · $6,600/yr
• Likely covers: waterpool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-04-23
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-14
   price $135,000
3. 2026-03-07
   listed $150,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $960 · $80/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,120 · $93/mo
• Expected delta: +$160/yr (+$13/mo · 16.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 28 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $45,003
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,562
• − Property taxes: −$960
• − Insurance: −$5,794
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,600
• − Management: −$3,600
• − HOA: −$6,600
• − Depreciation: −$3,927
• Taxable income: $12,959
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,110
• After-tax cash flow: $10,593/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Miami-Dade
• NCES district ID: 1200390
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $43,928
• Composite: 41.76/100
• National rank: #3397
• State rank: #40 of 73 in FL

Livability — Miami Beach

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #108
• US rank: #1672

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment B Housing C- Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Miami Beach, FL
• County: Miami-Dade County · 2,697,751 people
• City population: 90,533
• Metro: Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL
• Population (ZIP): 20,342
• Household income: $107,063
• Rent vs Own: 42.2% rent · 57.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 870.0

Population outlook (Miami-Dade County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,126,439 people
• By 2030: 3,325,765 · +6.4%
• By 2040: 3,697,561 · +18.3%
• By 2050: 4,012,134 · +28.3%
• By 2075: 4,605,612 · +47.3%
• By 2100: 4,866,598 · +55.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 46% Hispanic / Latino 44% Two or more races 23% Black 3% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 19% Salvadoran 6%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 5% Romanian 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 44% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 43% English-only · Spanish 45% Other Indo-European 6% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Miami-Dade

• 2024 margin: R (+11.4) · D 43.9% · R 55.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -27.6pp toward R · 2008: 16.1pp · 2024: -11.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.4 2020: D+7.3 2016: D+29.6 2012: D+23.7 2008: D+16.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.96%
• Current HPI: 302.8514
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.52%
• Metro: Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-10.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Pending — MARMLS
• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $135,000 MARMLS
• 2026-03-07 Listed $150,000 MARMLS

Property tax history

-2.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $960 · -21.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.