2516 Deerhaven Dr · Northport, AL 35473

$189,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,475 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 178 Days on market

Built 1973 $129/sqft · 31% below area Est $275k · 31% under ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming 3-bedroom home in a Northport neighborhood featuring hardwood floors, spacious living areas, and central heating/cooling. Built in 1973, this well-maintained property offers 1,475 sq ft of living space with durable wood/brick construction, a metal roof, and slab foundation. Situated on a corner lot.

Key facts

• Slab foundation
• Metal roof
• Hardwood floors

Tags

• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• CENTRAL HEATING COOLING
• METAL ROOF
• SLAB FOUNDATION
• CORNER LOT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $256 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $178k (6.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $167k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 4.2% in Northport — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#8 in AL, #2,686 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute F.
• Tuscaloosa County (suburban): math 21% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #47 of 129 in AL (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 108 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 622 units permitted in Tuscaloosa County in 2024 (69 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($70k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tuscaloosa County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 178 days — a 12% lower offer ($167k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 57% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $167,112 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 178 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.77%
• DSCR: 1.26
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $274,646
• List price: $189,900
• Delta: -30.86%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2803 Deerfield Ln	0.23mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,514 (+3%)	4mo	$215,000	$142	77
7345 Wilburton Ln	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,584 (+7%)	0mo	$245,900	$155	76
35 Booth Est	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,416 (-4%)	11mo	$221,000	$156	73
7022 Wilburton Ln	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,272 (-14%)	3mo	$208,100	$164	66
7603 Thompsons Way	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,345 (-9%)	2mo	$219,900	$163	65
7615 Thompsons Way	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,350 (-8%)	6mo	$227,500	$169	61
7524 Findleys St	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,322 (-10%)	3mo	$215,000	$163	59
7709 Thompsons Way	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,282 (-13%)	3mo	$200,000	$156	54
7513 Thompsons Way	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,290 (-12%)	10mo	$216,900	$168	52
47 Booth Est	0.31mi	3/1.5	1,268 (-14%)	10mo	$175,000	$138	52
7714 Thompsons Way	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,282 (-13%)	9mo	$226,000	$176	48
6112 Clearbrook Dr	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,692 (+15%)	7mo	$308,500	$182	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.73×
• Total profit: $-14,547
• Equity at exit: $28,315

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.15×
• Total profit: $8,028
• Equity at exit: $16,419

Cash invested: $53,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35473

• Home prices YoY: -14.6%
• Active inventory: 108
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,783 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$78 /mo · $932/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$374
• Net cashflow: $256

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,459

Max offer price $189,900

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,475
• Closing costs: $5,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7701 Thompsons Way Northport, AL	3.0	2.0	1305	$1,600	$1.23	43d	1	0.46mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-18
   status Pending 309-char remark

   Show marketing remark (309 chars)

   Charming 3-bedroom home in a Northport neighborhood featuring hardwood floors, spacious living areas, and central heating/cooling. Built in 1973, this well-maintained property offers 1,475 sq ft of living space with durable wood/brick construction, a metal roof, and slab foundation. Situated on a corner lot.

2. 2026-03-18
   price $189,900 309-char remark

   Show marketing remark (309 chars)

   Charming 3-bedroom home in a Northport neighborhood featuring hardwood floors, spacious living areas, and central heating/cooling. Built in 1973, this well-maintained property offers 1,475 sq ft of living space with durable wood/brick construction, a metal roof, and slab foundation. Situated on a corner lot.

3. 2025-11-20
   listed $194,000 Active 309-char remark

   Show marketing remark (309 chars)

   Charming 3-bedroom home in a Northport neighborhood featuring hardwood floors, spacious living areas, and central heating/cooling. Built in 1973, this well-maintained property offers 1,475 sq ft of living space with durable wood/brick construction, a metal roof, and slab foundation. Situated on a corner lot.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $932 · $78/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $932 · $78/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 57% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,395
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,637
• − Property taxes: −$932
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,712
• − Management: −$1,712
• − Depreciation: −$5,524
• Taxable loss: −$71
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$17
• After-tax cash flow: $3,088/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tuscaloosa County
• NCES district ID: 0103390
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $53,000
• Composite: 28.88/100
• National rank: #6641
• State rank: #47 of 129 in AL

Livability — Northport

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #8
• US rank: #2686

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Northport, AL
• County: Tuscaloosa County · 206,491 people
• City population: 47,464
• Metro: Tuscaloosa, AL
• Population (ZIP): 18,198
• Household income: $69,657
• Rent vs Own: 41.0% rent · 59.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 740.0

Population outlook (Tuscaloosa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 228,293 people
• By 2030: 240,551 · +5.4%
• By 2040: 263,856 · +15.6%
• By 2050: 286,491 · +25.5%
• By 2075: 335,783 · +47.1%
• By 2100: 370,520 · +62.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Black 20% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 3% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 6% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Tuscaloosa

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.4) · D 39.4% · R 59.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.4pp toward R · 2008: -16.0pp · 2024: -20.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.4 2020: R+14.8 2016: R+19.5 2012: R+17.4 2008: R+16.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -37.92%
• Current HPI: 222.5458
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Tuscaloosa, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

-2.1% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Pending — WAMLS
• 2026-03-18 Price Changed $189,900 WAMLS
• 2025-11-20 Listed $194,000 WAMLS

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $932 · +7.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.