30493 State Route 12 · Copenhagen, NY 13601

$107,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,296 sqft · Manufactured public records · 49 Days on market

Built 1993 1.04 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Set along a well-maintained, year-round road just outside Watertown, this bank-owned property offers a substantial footprint in a rural setting with convenient access to nearby amenities. Positioned between Watertown and Copenhagen, the location balances open surroundings with proximity to shopping, dining, services, and Fort Drum. Inside, the home features generous square footage and notably large rooms, creating a layout that lends itself to comfortable living once brought back to life. The structure appears solid, offering a strong starting point for a buyer ready to roll up their sleeves and put craftsmanship to work. The property has been winterized and is being sold as-is, providing a

Key facts

• Spacious yard
• Convenient access
• Rural setting

Tags

• RURAL SETTING
• CONVENIENT ACCESS
• SPACIOUS YARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $107k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $543 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $107k).
• Recommended offer: $104k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#914 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D, crime F, amenities F.
• Copenhagen Central School District (rural): math 64% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #197 of 590 in NY (top 33%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+10.0%/yr); 223 active listings in the ZIP; 196 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($59k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $740 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $30k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 49 days — a 3% lower offer ($104k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $103,790 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 49 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.60% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.75%
• DSCR: 1.97
• GRM: 5.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.88×
• Total profit: $26,381
• Equity at exit: $15,954

10-year hold

• IRR: 31.8%
• Equity multiple: 4.64×
• Total profit: $109,058
• Equity at exit: $9,251

Cash invested: $29,960 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13601

• Home prices YoY: -5.6%
• Rents YoY: 10.0%
• Active inventory: 223
• Price-to-rent: 5.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,716 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$561
• Tax from tax record: −$207 /mo · $2,481/yr
• Insurance: −$45
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$360
• Net cashflow: $543

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,028

Max offer price $107,000

Occupancy floor 63%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $26,750
• Closing costs: $3,210
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $107,000 Active 49 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $107,000 Active 48 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   status $107,000 Active 47 DOM
4. 2026-03-14
   status Pending
5. 2026-01-26
   listed $107,000 Active
6. 2012-09-19
   historical
7. 2012-06-22
   listed $59,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,481 · $207/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,481 · $207/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,588
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,994
• − Property taxes: −$2,481
• − Insurance: −$535
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,647
• − Management: −$1,647
• − Depreciation: −$3,113
• Taxable income: $5,172
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,241
• After-tax cash flow: $5,274/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Copenhagen Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3608280
• Math proficiency: 64% ▲ 9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 62% ▲ 11.00%
• Median HH income: $53,499
• Composite: 53.91/100
• National rank: #1403
• State rank: #197 of 590 in NY

Livability — Copenhagen

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #914
• US rank: #17891

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Jefferson County · 47,417 people
• Metro: Watertown-Fort Drum, NY
• Population (ZIP): 36,839
• Household income: $58,791
• Rent vs Own: 51.4% rent · 48.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1634.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 111,748 people
• By 2030: 109,370 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 103,828 · -7.1%
• By 2050: 98,523 · -11.8%
• By 2075: 91,422 · -18.2%
• By 2100: 78,214 · -30.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 7% Romanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.6) · D 38.2% · R 61.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.3pp toward R · 2008: -5.3pp · 2024: -23.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.6 2020: R+19.0 2016: R+22.4 2012: R+2.9 2008: R+5.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -18.86%
• Current HPI: 316.636
• Rent YoY: ▲ 9.96%
• Metro: Watertown-Fort Drum, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+78.6% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-14 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2026-01-26 Listed $107,000 UNYREIS
• 2012-09-19 Listing Removed — CNYIS
• 2012-06-22 Listed $59,900 CNYIS

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,481 · +1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.