51156 189th Ave · Shamrock, MN 55760

$79,000

1 bd · None ba · 560 sqft · SingleFamily · 97 Days on market

Built 1940 Fair condition 0.56 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.2/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Just a block from Big Sandy Lake & the Prairie River sits this well maintained rustic cabin. The cabin has electric and there is a well on the property, but no plumbing in the cabin. Level 1/2 acre lot with room for campers. Furniture and appliances are included. Come and enjoy our lakes area with this affordable cabin.

Key facts

• Level lot
• Room for campers
• Well maintained

Tags

• WELL MAINTAINED
• LEVEL LOT
• ROOM FOR CAMPERS
• BIG SANDY LAKE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/?-bath single-family listed at $79k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $56 ($669/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $76k (3.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $72k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Mcgregor Public School District (rural): math 31% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #243 of 301 in MN (top 81%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 94 active listings in the ZIP; 134 units permitted in Aitkin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($546 loan paydown + $8k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Aitkin County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 97 days — a 9% lower offer ($72k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $71,890 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 97 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.03%
• DSCR: 1.13
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.11×
• Total profit: $46,589
• Equity at exit: $71,169

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.2%
• Equity multiple: 7.08×
• Total profit: $134,427
• Equity at exit: $153,480

Cash invested: $22,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55760

• Home prices YoY: 7.3%
• Active inventory: 94
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $762 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$414
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$99 /mo · $1,185/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$160
• Net cashflow: $56

Break-even live

Break-even rent $691

Max offer price $79,000

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $110	-5% $83	+0% $56	+5% $28	+10% $1
Rent	-10% $-4	-5% $26	+0% $56	+5% $86	+10% $116
Rate	-1.0pp $96	-0.5pp $76	base $56	+0.5pp $35	+1.0pp $14

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,750
• Closing costs: $2,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $79,000 Active 97 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $79,000 Active 95 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $79,000 Active 94 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $79,000 Active 93 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $79,000 Active 92 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $79,000 Active 90 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $79,000 Active 89 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $79,000 Active 86 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $79,000 Active 85 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $79,000 Active 84 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $79,000 Active 82 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $79,000 Active 80 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $79,000 Active 79 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $79,000 Active 78 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $79,000 Active 77 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $79,000 Active 76 DOM
17. 2026-03-15
    listed $79,000 Active 325-char remark

    Show marketing remark (325 chars)

    Just a block from Big Sandy Lake & the Prairie River sits this well maintained rustic cabin. The cabin has electric and there is a well on the property, but no plumbing in the cabin. Level 1/2 acre lot with room for campers. Furniture and appliances are included. Come and enjoy our lakes area with this affordable cabin.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 12 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $9,140
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,425
• − Property taxes: −$1,185
• − Insurance: −$395
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$731
• − Management: −$731
• − Depreciation: −$2,298
• Taxable loss: −$626
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$150
• After-tax cash flow: $819/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This rustic cabin requires significant updates to its kitchen, bathrooms, flooring, and HVAC system to improve its condition and value. Landscaping and curb appeal improvements will also enhance its appeal.

Repairs flagged

• Major Kitchen cabinets — Older cabinets in poor condition.
• Major Bathroom fixtures — Outdated and in poor condition.
• Major Flooring — Worn carpet in living areas.
• Major Paint — Worn paint throughout the interior.
• Major HVAC system — No visible updates, likely outdated and inefficient.
• Moderate Windows — Older windows, some showing wear.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale New kitchen cabinets and appliances — Modern kitchen will attract more buyers.
• Resale New flooring — Fresh carpet will improve the home's appearance.
• Resale Painting the interior — Fresh paint will make the home more appealing.
• Both Upgraded HVAC system — Modern HVAC will improve comfort and energy efficiency.
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Aesthetic improvements will attract more buyers and renters.
• Resale New bathroom fixtures — Modern bathroom will attract more buyers.
• Resale Window replacements — Newer windows will improve energy efficiency and appearance.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Kitchen cabinets · Older cabinets in poor condition.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Bathroom fixtures · Outdated and in poor condition.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Flooring · Worn carpet in living areas.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Paint · Worn paint throughout the interior.	Major	$15,000–50,000
HVAC system · No visible updates, likely outdated and inefficient.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Windows · Older windows, some showing wear.	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Total estimated repair cost · 6 items		$78,000–265,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale New kitchen cabinets and appliances — Modern kitchen will attract more buyers. ↑
• Resale New flooring — Fresh carpet will improve the home's appearance. ↑
• Resale Painting the interior — Fresh paint will make the home more appealing. ↑
• Both Upgraded HVAC system — Modern HVAC will improve comfort and energy efficiency. ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Aesthetic improvements will attract more buyers and renters. ↑
• Resale New bathroom fixtures — Modern bathroom will attract more buyers. ↑
• Resale Window replacements — Newer windows will improve energy efficiency and appearance. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mcgregor Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2719170
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $39,225
• Composite: 31.35/100
• National rank: #5996
• State rank: #243 of 301 in MN

Livability — Shamrock

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,831

Population outlook (Aitkin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 14,340 people
• By 2030: 13,514 · -5.8%
• By 2040: 11,928 · -16.8%
• By 2050: 10,804 · -24.7%
• By 2075: 9,555 · -33.4%
• By 2100: 8,380 · -41.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Native American 5% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 1% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 15% Lithuanian 6% Scottish 2%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Aitkin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+30.9) · D 33.8% · R 64.7% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -30.9pp toward R · 2008: 0.1pp · 2024: -30.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+30.9 2020: R+26.4 2016: R+25.9 2012: R+1.3 2008: D+0.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 15.76%
• Current HPI: 231.677
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-15 Listed $79,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid