304 14th St NW #115 · Long Beach, WA 98631

$47,500

1 bd · 2.0 ba · 682 sqft · Condo · 85 Days on market

Built 1974 $70/sqft · 14% below area Est $55k · 14% under $587/mo HOA · 40% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +13.9/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Enjoy the fresh ocean air. Clam digging, Bluegrass Festival, all the amenities Chautauqua Lodge has to offer just steps to the beach, the restaurant and lounge. This units sleeps six comfortably, located on the ground floor.

Key facts

• Rv & boat parking
• Pickleball court
• Firepits

Tags

• PRIVATE TREX DECK
• INDOOR POOL
• HOT TUB
• PICKLEBALL COURT
• FIREPITS
• RV & BOAT PARKING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $48k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $296 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $48k).
• Recommended offer: $45k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.8% vs local median 3.0% in Long Beach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#133 in WA, #2,635 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, crime A-, amenities A-; Watch: employment C-, commute F.
• Ocean Beach School District (rural): math 34% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #212 of 291 in WA (top 73%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 121 active listings in the ZIP; 90 units permitted in Pacific County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $328 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pacific County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 85 days — a 6% lower offer ($45k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $32k; list at $48k implies a 51% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 40% of rent.

Recommended offer $44,650 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 85 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.13% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 26.69%
• DSCR: 2.19
• GRM: 2.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $55,376
• List price: $47,500
• Delta: -14.22%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.87×
• Total profit: $11,506
• Equity at exit: $7,082

10-year hold

• IRR: 29.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.69×
• Total profit: $35,746
• Equity at exit: $4,107

Cash invested: $13,300 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98631

• Home prices YoY: -17.6%
• Active inventory: 121
• Price-to-rent: 2.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,486 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$249
• Tax from tax record: −$22 /mo · $265/yr
• Insurance: −$20
• HOA: −$587
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$312
• Net cashflow: $296

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,111

Max offer price $47,500

Occupancy floor 75%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,875
• Closing costs: $1,425
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $587 · $7,044/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 32 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $47,500 Active 85 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $47,500 Active 84 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $47,500 Active 83 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $47,500 Active 82 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $47,500 Active 81 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $47,500 Active 80 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $47,500 Active 79 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $47,500 Active 76 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $47,500 Active 75 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $47,500 Active 74 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $47,500 Active 73 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $47,500 Active 70 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $47,500 Active 69 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $47,500 Active 68 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $47,500 Active 67 DOM
16. 2026-03-25
    listed $47,500 Active
17. 2019-12-02
    soldstatus $31,500 Sold
18. 2019-12-02
    soldstatus $27,076
19. 2019-11-09
    status Pending
20. 2019-07-12
    price $34,950
21. 2019-04-30
    price $36,950
22. 2018-11-20
    listed $39,950 Active
23. 2009-07-30
    soldstatus $18,000 224-char remark

    Show marketing remark (224 chars)

    Enjoy the fresh ocean air. Clam digging, Bluegrass Festival, all the amenities Chautauqua Lodge has to offer just steps to the beach, the restaurant and lounge. This units sleeps six comfortably, located on the ground floor.

24. 2009-07-30
    soldstatus $18,000 Sold

    Show marketing remark (224 chars)

    Enjoy the fresh ocean air. Clam digging, Bluegrass Festival, all the amenities Chautauqua Lodge has to offer just steps to the beach, the restaurant and lounge. This units sleeps six comfortably, located on the ground floor.

25. 2009-07-30
    soldstatus $18,000

    Show marketing remark (224 chars)

    Enjoy the fresh ocean air. Clam digging, Bluegrass Festival, all the amenities Chautauqua Lodge has to offer just steps to the beach, the restaurant and lounge. This units sleeps six comfortably, located on the ground floor.

26. 2009-07-11
    status Pending
27. 2009-07-08
    historical 224-char remark

    Show marketing remark (224 chars)

    Enjoy the fresh ocean air. Clam digging, Bluegrass Festival, all the amenities Chautauqua Lodge has to offer just steps to the beach, the restaurant and lounge. This units sleeps six comfortably, located on the ground floor.

28. 2009-06-29
    status
29. 2009-06-20
    historical
30. 2009-02-18
    price $24,000
31. 2009-01-21
    listed $26,999
32. 2009-01-19
    listed $24,000 224-char remark

    Show marketing remark (224 chars)

    Enjoy the fresh ocean air. Clam digging, Bluegrass Festival, all the amenities Chautauqua Lodge has to offer just steps to the beach, the restaurant and lounge. This units sleeps six comfortably, located on the ground floor.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $265 · $22/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $466 · $39/mo
• Expected delta: +$200/yr (+$17/mo · 75.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 8 d/yr ≥73°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,830
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,661
• − Property taxes: −$265
• − Insurance: −$238
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,426
• − Management: −$1,426
• − HOA: −$7,044
• − Depreciation: −$1,382
• Taxable income: $3,388
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$813
• After-tax cash flow: $2,737/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ocean Beach School District
• NCES district ID: 5306060
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $38,549
• Composite: 37.37/100
• National rank: #8929
• State rank: #212 of 291 in WA

Livability — Long Beach

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #133
• US rank: #2635

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A- Employment C- Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Long Beach, WA
• Population (ZIP): 3,468

Population outlook (Pacific County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 20,636 people
• By 2030: 20,137 · -2.4%
• By 2040: 19,041 · -7.7%
• By 2050: 18,504 · -10.3%
• By 2075: 17,403 · -15.7%
• By 2100: 16,241 · -21.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 11% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 5% Slovak 5% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, South Korea, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Pacific

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.1% · R 49.4% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.4pp toward R · 2008: 14.1pp · 2024: -1.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.3 2020: R+1.1 2016: R+6.9 2012: D+11.4 2008: D+14.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -51.26%
• Current HPI: 240.5056
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+97.9% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-25 Listed $47,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-12-02 Sold (Public Records) $27,076 Public Records
• 2019-12-02 Sold (MLS) $31,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-11-09 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-07-12 Price Changed $34,950 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-04-30 Price Changed $36,950 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-11-20 Listed $39,950 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-07-30 Sold (Public Records) $18,000 Public Records
• 2009-07-30 Sold (MLS) $18,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-07-30 Sold (MLS) $18,000 RMLS
• 2009-07-11 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-07-08 Delisted — RMLS
• 2009-06-29 Relisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-06-20 Delisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-02-18 Price Changed $24,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-01-21 Listed $26,999 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-01-19 Listed $24,000 RMLS

Property tax history

+9.5%/yr

Latest (2026): $265 · -2.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.