863 Nevada St · June Lake, CA 93529

$810,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,095 sqft · Other public records · 166 Days on market

Built 1926 0.94 ac lot ↓ 26% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.3/30.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.5/10.0
• DSCR +0.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Location location, location. .. Silver Lake waterfront home! This historic USFS cabin radiates warmth and rustic charm! Perfect for the fishermen and sports enthusiasts. Ground floor living area of 1376 sqft; additional second floor 16x16 'bonus/3rd bdrm. ' Detached garage, with a 2-bedroom guest unit which includes a kitchen & bath. A beautiful setting along the lake shore, offering views of the water and surrounding mountains. Masonry stone fireplace, Rinnai gas wall heater, two gas W/ H, charming country kitchen, and screened sunroom for sleeping quarters, card room or ??? Private boat dock permitted. This rare find will truly delight those looking for a "cabin on the lake!&qu

Key facts

• Historic usfs cabin
• 2 bedroom guest unit
• Detached garage

Tags

• SILVER LAKE WATERFRONT HOME
• HISTORIC USFS CABIN
• DETACHED GARAGE
• 2 BEDROOM GUEST UNIT
• MASONRY STONE FIREPLACE
• RINNAI GAS WALL HEATER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $810k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-18k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $591k (27.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $525k (35.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $525k (35.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#639 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Eastern Sierra Unified (rural): math 33% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #626 of 1,400 in CA (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 23 active listings in the ZIP; 123 units permitted in Mono County in 2024 (76 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $6k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $24k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Mono County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 166 days — a 12% lower offer ($713k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $65k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $68/mo; built in 1926 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $525,302 (35.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 166 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 35% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1926 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
10. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
11. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
12. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
13. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
14. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.65% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.15%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.66%
• DSCR: 0.66
• GRM: 12.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -30.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.00×
• Total profit: $-227,668
• Equity at exit: $120,774

10-year hold

• IRR: -32.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.42×
• Total profit: $-322,061
• Equity at exit: $70,034

Cash invested: $226,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93529

• Active inventory: 23
• Price-to-rent: 12.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,253 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,248
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$1,012 /mo · $12,150/yr
• Insurance: −$338
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$68 /mo · $814/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,103
• Net cashflow: $-1,516

Break-even live

Break-even rent $7,172

Max offer price $590,679

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $202,500
• Closing costs: $24,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2025-12-16
   status Pending
2. 2025-07-11
   price $810,000
3. 2025-05-21
   listed $875,000 Active
4. 2024-10-16
   historical
5. 2024-08-15
   price $989,500
6. 2024-07-03
   listed $1,099,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone D · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 10 d/yr ≥80°F today · 29 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 38 unhealthy d/yr today · 44 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $63,036
• − Mortgage interest: −$45,373
• − Property taxes: −$12,150
• − Insurance: −$4,864
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,043
• − Management: −$5,043
• − Depreciation: −$23,564
• Taxable loss: −$33,000
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$7,920
• After-tax cash flow: $-10,268/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Eastern Sierra Unified
• NCES district ID: 0611870
• Math proficiency: 33% ▲ 6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▲ 8.00%
• Median HH income: $47,977
• Composite: 39.44/100
• National rank: #8119
• State rank: #626 of 1400 in CA

Livability — June Lake

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #639
• US rank: #20103

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime B Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: June Lake, CA
• Population (ZIP): 209

Population outlook (Mono County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 13,077 people
• By 2030: 12,478 · -4.6%
• By 2040: 11,119 · -15.0%
• By 2050: 9,769 · -25.3%
• By 2075: 6,861 · -47.5%
• By 2100: 5,762 · -55.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Native American 40%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 10% Lithuanian 5%
• Foreign-born: 10%
• Languages at home: 52% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Mono

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+20.2) · D 58.1% · R 37.8% · Other 4.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.0pp toward D · 2008: 13.3pp · 2024: 20.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+20.2 2020: D+22.3 2016: D+11.9 2012: D+7.6 2008: D+13.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -170.67%
• Current HPI: 184.5663
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-26.3% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-16 Pending — MLBOR
• 2025-07-11 Price Changed $810,000 MLBOR
• 2025-05-21 Listed $875,000 MLBOR
• 2024-10-16 Delisted — MLBOR
• 2024-08-15 Price Changed $989,500 MLBOR
• 2024-07-03 Listed $1,099,000 MLBOR