3185 S James Rd · Baldwin, MI 49304

$55,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1994 2.50 ac lot ↓ 15% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Your Turn-Key Up-North Escape Awaits! This meticulously maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home sits beautifully on 2.5 wooded, level acres just north of Baldwin. Offered partially furnished, this property is truly move-in ready from day one. Whether you are looking for a peaceful year-round residence or the ultimate weekend basecamp, you will love being minutes from premier public hunting land, staging areas, and ORV/snowmobile riding trails. Plus, beautiful Lake Michigan is just a short 30-minute drive away! The property features easy access via a county-maintained road just off M-37, a handy storage shed for your tools and toys, and plenty of cleared space to build your dream pole barn. Don't wait--schedule your showing today and start enjoying the best of Michigan's natural resources!

Key facts

• 2.5 acre lot
• Built 1994

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Propane water heater
• Home design: Ranch-style home; Single-story (ranch)
• Construction: Built in 1994; Vinyl siding; Metal roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Recreational lot; Wooded lot; Unimproved road access; Well water

Interior

• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Has heating
• Interior features: Seven total rooms; Fireplace

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $55k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $522 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $55k).
• Cap rate 17.7% vs local median 3.6% in Baldwin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#360 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Baldwin Community Schools (rural): math 21% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #618 of 760 in MI (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 85% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 167 active listings in the ZIP; 30 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $380 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lake County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 8 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $55,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.68%
• Cash-on-cash: 40.67%
• DSCR: 2.81
• GRM: 4.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $150,784
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3147 S Yale Ave	0.54mi	3/1.5	1,284 (+6%)	23mo	$159,500	$124	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 37.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.58×
• Total profit: $24,346
• Equity at exit: $8,201

10-year hold

• IRR: 43.7%
• Equity multiple: 5.16×
• Total profit: $64,071
• Equity at exit: $4,755

Cash invested: $15,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 49304

• Home prices YoY: -30.4%
• Active inventory: 167
• Price-to-rent: 4.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,140 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$288
• Tax from tax record: −$67 /mo · $805/yr
• Insurance: −$23
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$239
• Net cashflow: $522

Break-even live

Break-even rent $479

Max offer price $55,000

Occupancy floor 49%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,750
• Closing costs: $1,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-07
   remarks 699-char remark
2. 2026-06-07
   listed $55,000 Pending 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $805 · $67/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $826 · $69/mo
• Expected delta: +$21/yr (+$2/mo · 2.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,676
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,081
• − Property taxes: −$805
• − Insurance: −$275
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,094
• − Management: −$1,094
• − Depreciation: −$1,600
• Taxable income: $5,727
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,375
• After-tax cash flow: $4,889/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baldwin Community Schools
• NCES district ID: 2603810
• Math proficiency: 21% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $27,638
• Composite: 22.56/100
• National rank: #13447
• State rank: #618 of 760 in MI

Livability — Baldwin

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #360
• US rank: #9207

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,680

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 10,933 people
• By 2030: 10,503 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 9,470 · -13.4%
• By 2050: 8,526 · -22.0%
• By 2075: 7,160 · -34.5%
• By 2100: 5,634 · -48.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Black 12% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 9% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Iranian 5% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+32.2) · D 33.2% · R 65.4% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -44.5pp toward R · 2008: 12.3pp · 2024: -32.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+32.2 2020: R+26.2 2016: R+22.9 2012: D+5.0 2008: D+12.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -51.01%
• Current HPI: 116.6025
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

-15.3% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Pending — SW Michigan MLS
• 2026-06-04 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2026-06-04 Listed $55,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-06-04 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-06-04 Listed $55,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-06-04 Listed $55,000 SW Michigan MLS
• 2022-10-21 Sold (Public Records) $64,900 Public Records
• 2022-10-21 Sold (MLS) $64,900 SW Michigan MLS
• 2022-10-21 Sold (MLS) $64,900 REALCOMP
• 2022-09-30 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2022-09-30 Pending — SW Michigan MLS
• 2022-09-30 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2022-09-27 Relisted — REALCOMP
• 2022-09-27 Relisted — SW Michigan MLS
• 2022-09-06 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2022-09-06 Pending — SW Michigan MLS
• 2022-07-30 Listed $64,900 SW Michigan MLS
• 2022-07-30 Listed $64,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2022-07-30 Listed $64,900 REALCOMP

Property tax history

-0.8%/yr

Latest (2024): $805 · +4.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.