18306 71st Ave E · Frederickson, WA 98375

$433,000

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,254 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 85 Days on market

Built 2011 4,500 sqft lot Est $568k · 24% under $50/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +11.8/30.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Spacious 5 bedroom, 2.5 bath home with endless potential! This property needs some work but offers a fantastic layout and room to make it your own. The open concept kitchen features a walk-in pantry and flows into a cozy living room with a gas fireplace which is perfect for gatherings. The large fully fenced backyard includes a shed, a generous patio area, and plenty of space for gardening, pets, or play. Upstairs, the oversized primary suite boasts a 5-piece bath and walk-in closet. Located near schools, dining, JBLM, Amazon, Boeing and major commuting routes.

Key facts

• Open concept kitchen
• Space for gardening
• Generous patio area

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT KITCHEN
• WALK-IN PANTRY
• FULLY FENCED BACKYARD
• GENEROUS PATIO AREA
• SPACE FOR GARDENING
• OVERSIZED PRIMARY SUITE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $433k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-115 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $413k (4.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $363k (16.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $363k (16.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.5% in Frederickson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#197 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities D-, commute F.
• Bethel School District (suburban): math 47% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #103 of 291 in WA (top 35%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Elk Plain School of Choice (570 students, 39% FRL); Liberty Middle School (936 students, 55% FRL); Graham Kapowsin High School (2,011 students, 49% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.8%/yr); 285 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 3,209 units permitted in Pierce County in 2024 (1,269 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($117k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pierce County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 85 days — a 6% lower offer ($407k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 16y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $92k (18%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $362,763 (16.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 85 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.97%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.14%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $568,008
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7211 188th Street Ct E	0.35mi	5/3.5	2,343 (+4%)	9mo	$560,000	$239	68
18240 73rd Ave E	0.09mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,490 (+10%)	6mo	$573,000	$230	67
13924 178th St E	0.34mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,337 (+4%)	6mo	$659,990	$282	66
7720 181th St E	0.38mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,142 (-5%)	2mo	$522,000	$244	66
19320 74th Ave E	0.69mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,229 (-1%)	2mo	$558,000	$250	57
19203 76th Ave E	0.66mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,302 (+2%)	5mo	$581,850	$253	54
13904 178th St E	0.34mi	5/2.5	2,587 (+15%)	7mo	$655,000	$253	52
19304 74th Ave E	0.64mi	5/2.5	2,431 (+8%)	6mo	$559,000	$230	50
18914 76th Avenue Ct E	0.51mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,066 (-8%)	7mo	$510,000	$247	50
7205 178th St E	0.34mi	4/2.5 (-1)	1,962 (-13%)	7mo	$520,000	$265	50
17621 74th Avenue Ct E	0.42mi	4/2.5 (-1)	1,947 (-14%)	2mo	$525,000	$270	49
8108 185th Street Ct E	0.67mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,064 (-8%)	8mo	$520,000	$252	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.79% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-78,223
• Equity at exit: $64,562

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-80,499
• Equity at exit: $37,438

Cash invested: $121,240 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98375

• Rents YoY: 2.8%
• Active inventory: 285
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,628 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,271
• Tax from tax record: −$480 /mo · $5,760/yr
• Insurance: −$180
• HOA: −$50
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$762
• Net cashflow: $-115

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,774

Max offer price $412,639

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $130	-5% $7	+0% $-115	+5% $-238	+10% $-360
Rent	-10% $-402	-5% $-259	+0% $-115	+5% $28	+10% $171
Rate	-1.0pp $103	-0.5pp $-5	base $-115	+0.5pp $-227	+1.0pp $-342

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $108,250
• Closing costs: $12,990
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
18314 70th Avenue Ct E Puyallup, WA	5.0	3.0	2382	$3,200	$1.34	26d	1	0.04mi
7513 177th Street Ct E Puyallup, WA	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.5	1243	$3,210	$2.58	12d	7	0.48mi
20121 70th Ave E Spanaway, WA	4.0	3.0	1680	$2,950	$1.76	1d	1	1.13mi
9110 178th Street Ct E Puyallup, WA	4.0	3.0	2321	$3,195	$1.38	17d	1	1.30mi
20624 74th Ave E Spanaway, WA	4.0	2.5	2197	$1,400	$0.64	0d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $50 · $600/yr
• Likely covers: gas

Listing history 17 events

1. 2025-12-27
   status Pending
2. 2025-12-08
   status Active
3. 2025-12-08
   price $433,000
4. 2025-10-10
   status Pending
5. 2025-10-01
   price $480,000
6. 2025-08-22
   price $510,000
7. 2025-08-04
   listed $525,000 Active
8. 2020-08-31
   soldstatus $415,000 Sold
9. 2020-08-07
   status Pending
10. 2020-08-05
    status Pending Inspection
11. 2020-07-31
    listed $399,950 Active
12. 2011-05-27
    soldstatus $220,000 Sold
13. 2011-05-27
    soldstatus $220,000
14. 2011-03-31
    status Pending
15. 2011-02-17
    price $217,950
16. 2010-10-16
    listed $224,950 Active
17. 2010-10-06
    soldstatus $140,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,760 · $480/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,760 · $480/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥87°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 10 unhealthy d/yr today · 10 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $43,532
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,255
• − Property taxes: −$5,760
• − Insurance: −$2,165
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,483
• − Management: −$3,483
• − HOA: −$600
• − Depreciation: −$12,596
• Taxable loss: −$8,809
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,114
• After-tax cash flow: $731/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bethel School District
• NCES district ID: 5300480
• Math proficiency: 47% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $65,872
• Composite: 48.66/100
• National rank: #4568
• State rank: #103 of 291 in WA

Livability — Frederickson

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #197
• US rank: #5426

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living D- Crime D+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Frederickson, WA
• County: Pierce County · 788,257 people
• City population: 32,195
• Metro: Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
• Population (ZIP): 31,187
• Household income: $117,074
• Rent vs Own: 24.6% rent · 75.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 541.0

Population outlook (Pierce County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 956,648 people
• By 2030: 1,010,862 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 1,113,170 · +16.4%
• By 2050: 1,206,524 · +26.1%
• By 2075: 1,436,425 · +50.2%
• By 2100: 1,563,654 · +63.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: White 57% Two or more races 22% Hispanic / Latino 13% Black 8% Asian 6% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Lithuanian 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Pierce

• 2024 margin: D (+10.8) · D 53.9% · R 43.1% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.4pp toward R · 2008: 12.2pp · 2024: 10.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.8 2020: D+11.2 2016: D+7.5 2012: D+11.0 2008: D+12.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -189.98%
• Current HPI: 285.0074
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.79%
• Metro: Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+209.3% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-27 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-08 Relisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-08 Price Changed $433,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-10 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-01 Price Changed $480,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-22 Price Changed $510,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-04 Listed $525,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-08-31 Sold (MLS) $415,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-08-07 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-08-05 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-07-31 Listed $399,950 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-05-27 Sold (Public Records) $220,000 Public Records
• 2011-05-27 Sold (MLS) $220,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-03-31 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-02-17 Price Changed $217,950 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-10-16 Listed $224,950 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-10-06 Sold (Public Records) $140,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+10.6%/yr

Latest (2026): $5,760 · +3.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.