Creede Plan · Santa Fe, TX 77510

$289,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,009 sqft · SingleFamily · 443 Days on market

↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.9/30.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.3/10.0
• DSCR +0.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Boasting with space, the Creede plan is a highly sought-after one-story home with space for the whole family to enjoy. This three-bedroom, two-bathroom home is the perfect layout for most any lifestyle, no matter what stage of life you are in. Entering the home, you will find the long foyer leading to the second and third bedrooms, with the full secondary bathroom residing in the middle. Across the foyer lies the entry to your two-car garage. If you are yearning for more space to park a third car, or simply to store necessary items, decide to tack on an extra half-car or one-car garage! Proceed further down the hall where you will discover your walk-in utility room along with a secluded study room where you can work from home peacefully or choose to transform it into a fourth bedroom, if you are needing the extra space. Finally, at the back of the home, you are met with your combined living space. The open kitchen comes equipped with granite countertops, ample counter space, industry-leading appliances, and a pantry. It also opens up to the formal dining room and family room space, making this the perfect layout for entertaining guests. Add a stylish element to your family room by putting in an optional fireplace that will surely impress all of your family and friends. Right off the dining room, there is access to your backyard with the option to include a covered patio. Around the corner from the family room is your private master bedroom. Your refined master bathroom is. ..

Key facts

• Long foyer
• Secluded study room
• Walk-in utility room

Tags

• LONG FOYER
• WALK-IN UTILITY ROOM
• SECLUDED STUDY ROOM
• OPEN KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• INDUSTRY-LEADING APPLIANCES

🏗️ New construction. The $289,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $353,658.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $290k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-692 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $254k (12.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $222k (23.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $222k (23.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#550 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Santa Fe ISD (suburban): math 38% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #385 of 826 in TX (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 233 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 3,258 units permitted in Galveston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Galveston County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 443 days — a 12% lower offer ($255k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $221,826 (23.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 443 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.63% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.95%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.38%
• DSCR: 0.63
• GRM: 13.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $353,658
• List price: $289,990
• Delta: -18.00%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12026 Crooked Creek Ln	0.07mi	3/2.0	2,009 (0%)	2mo	$345,096	$172	95
12131 Wooden Mill Ln N	0.13mi	3/2.0	2,009 (0%)	7mo	$330,000	$164	89
3826 Garden Hill Ln	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,904 (-5%)	7mo	$332,990	$175	79
12031 Crooked Creek Ln	0.06mi	3/2.0	2,264 (+13%)	1mo	$356,281	$157	76
12122 Blossom Dr	0.25mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,051 (+2%)	4mo	$342,990	$167	73
4018 Avenue L	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,948 (-3%)	3mo	$359,000	$184	72
3818 Garden Hill Ln	0.12mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,140 (+6%)	4mo	$346,990	$162	71
12118 Wooden Mill Ln	0.10mi	3/2.0	2,264 (+13%)	6mo	$366,460	$162	69
3859 Mulberry Farms Dr	0.23mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,140 (+6%)	2mo	$387,840	$181	68
3819 Garden Hill Ln	0.13mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,264 (+13%)	1mo	$367,331	$162	63
3605 Avenue E 1/2	0.74mi	3/2.5	1,974 (-2%)	3mo	$375,000	$190	58
12320 Fm-1764	0.32mi	2/1.5 (-1)	2,284 (+14%)	2mo	$275,000	$120	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -31.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.02×
• Total profit: $-101,324
• Equity at exit: $52,732

10-year hold

• IRR: -34.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.46×
• Total profit: $-144,817
• Equity at exit: $30,578

Cash invested: $99,024 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77510

• Home prices YoY: -15.3%
• Active inventory: 233
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,218 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,855
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$442 /mo · $5,305/yr
• Insurance: −$147
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$466
• Net cashflow: $-692

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,094

Max offer price $253,579

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-447	-5% $-569	+0% $-692	+5% $-814	+10% $-936
Rent	-10% $-867	-5% $-779	+0% $-692	+5% $-604	+10% $-516
Rate	-1.0pp $-514	-0.5pp $-602	base $-692	+0.5pp $-783	+1.0pp $-876

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $88,414
• Closing costs: $10,610
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11844 13th St Santa Fe, TX	3.0	2.0	1472	$1,750	$1.19	22d	1	1.09mi
13342 Pecan Trails Dr Santa Fe, TX	4.0	3.0	2150	$2,700	$1.26	44d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $289,990 Active 443 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $289,990 Active 442 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $289,990 Active 441 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $289,990 Active 440 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $289,990 Active 438 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $289,990 Active 434 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $289,990 Active 433 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $289,990 Active 432 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $289,990 Active 429 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $289,990 Active 428 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $289,990 Active 427 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $289,990 Active 426 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $289,990 Active 425 DOM
14. 2025-06-18
    price $289,990 1500-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1500 chars)

    Boasting with space, the Creede plan is a highly sought-after one-story home with space for the whole family to enjoy. This three-bedroom, two-bathroom home is the perfect layout for most any lifestyle, no matter what stage of life you are in. Entering the home, you will find the long foyer leading to the second and third bedrooms, with the full secondary bathroom residing in the middle. Across the foyer lies the entry to your two-car garage. If you are yearning for more space to park a third car, or simply to store necessary items, decide to tack on an extra half-car or one-car garage! Proceed further down the hall where you will discover your walk-in utility room along with a secluded study room where you can work from home peacefully or choose to transform it into a fourth bedroom, if you are needing the extra space. Finally, at the back of the home, you are met with your combined living space. The open kitchen comes equipped with granite countertops, ample counter space, industry-leading appliances, and a pantry. It also opens up to the formal dining room and family room space, making this the perfect layout for entertaining guests. Add a stylish element to your family room by putting in an optional fireplace that will surely impress all of your family and friends. Right off the dining room, there is access to your backyard with the option to include a covered patio. Around the corner from the family room is your private master bedroom. Your refined master bathroom is. ..

15. 2025-06-04
    price $294,990 1500-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1500 chars)

    Boasting with space, the Creede plan is a highly sought-after one-story home with space for the whole family to enjoy. This three-bedroom, two-bathroom home is the perfect layout for most any lifestyle, no matter what stage of life you are in. Entering the home, you will find the long foyer leading to the second and third bedrooms, with the full secondary bathroom residing in the middle. Across the foyer lies the entry to your two-car garage. If you are yearning for more space to park a third car, or simply to store necessary items, decide to tack on an extra half-car or one-car garage! Proceed further down the hall where you will discover your walk-in utility room along with a secluded study room where you can work from home peacefully or choose to transform it into a fourth bedroom, if you are needing the extra space. Finally, at the back of the home, you are met with your combined living space. The open kitchen comes equipped with granite countertops, ample counter space, industry-leading appliances, and a pantry. It also opens up to the formal dining room and family room space, making this the perfect layout for entertaining guests. Add a stylish element to your family room by putting in an optional fireplace that will surely impress all of your family and friends. Right off the dining room, there is access to your backyard with the option to include a covered patio. Around the corner from the family room is your private master bedroom. Your refined master bathroom is. ..

16. 2025-04-01
    listed $302,990 Active 1500-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1500 chars)

    Boasting with space, the Creede plan is a highly sought-after one-story home with space for the whole family to enjoy. This three-bedroom, two-bathroom home is the perfect layout for most any lifestyle, no matter what stage of life you are in. Entering the home, you will find the long foyer leading to the second and third bedrooms, with the full secondary bathroom residing in the middle. Across the foyer lies the entry to your two-car garage. If you are yearning for more space to park a third car, or simply to store necessary items, decide to tack on an extra half-car or one-car garage! Proceed further down the hall where you will discover your walk-in utility room along with a secluded study room where you can work from home peacefully or choose to transform it into a fourth bedroom, if you are needing the extra space. Finally, at the back of the home, you are met with your combined living space. The open kitchen comes equipped with granite countertops, ample counter space, industry-leading appliances, and a pantry. It also opens up to the formal dining room and family room space, making this the perfect layout for entertaining guests. Add a stylish element to your family room by putting in an optional fireplace that will surely impress all of your family and friends. Right off the dining room, there is access to your backyard with the option to include a covered patio. Around the corner from the family room is your private master bedroom. Your refined master bathroom is. ..

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,619
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,810
• − Property taxes: −$5,305
• − Insurance: −$1,768
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,130
• − Management: −$2,130
• − Depreciation: −$10,288
• Taxable loss: −$14,812
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,555
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,745/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Santa Fe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4839270
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $66,769
• Composite: 34.86/100
• National rank: #5091
• State rank: #385 of 826 in TX

Livability — Santa Fe

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #550
• US rank: #10637

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Santa Fe, TX
• Population (ZIP): 13,938

Population outlook (Galveston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 390,640 people
• By 2030: 425,226 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 493,765 · +26.4%
• By 2050: 559,698 · +43.3%
• By 2075: 719,260 · +84.1%
• By 2100: 819,628 · +109.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 17% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 3% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 10% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Galveston

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.4) · D 35.7% · R 63.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: -19.5pp · 2024: -27.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.4 2020: R+22.6 2016: R+22.6 2012: R+26.9 2008: R+19.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -54.15%
• Current HPI: 299.2228
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-4.3% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2025-06-18 Price Changed $289,990 Zillow
• 2025-06-04 Price Changed $294,990 Zillow
• 2025-04-01 Listed $302,990 Zillow