15955 Westgate Rd · Splendora, TX 77372

$120,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,296 sqft · Manufactured public records · 212 Days on market

Built 2024 Excellent condition $93/sqft · 48% below area ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Appreciation +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Experience peaceful country living on over half an acre of unrestricted land with low taxes and no HOA! This brand-new 2024 manufactured home has never been lived in and features 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, beautiful laminate floors, and an island kitchen with natural cabinetry and stainless-steel appliances. The spacious primary suite offers a double-sink vanity, large walk-in closet, separate shower, and relaxing soaking tub. Enjoy a covered back patio plus a versatile two-story workshop/shed perfect for storage, hobbies, or an office. With plenty of open land, you have the freedom to create the lifestyle you want. Located just 10 minutes from Hwy 59, you’ll have quick access to shopping, dining, and more. Don’t miss this amazing chance to own a brand-new home on generous land at a great price!

Key facts

• Natural cabinetry
• Island kitchen
• Two-story workshop

Tags

• COVERED BACK PATIO
• TWO-STORY WORKSHOP
• ISLAND KITCHEN
• NATURAL CABINETRY
• STAINLESS-STEEL APPLIANCES
• LARGE WALK-IN CLOSET

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $120k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $471 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $106k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.0% vs local median 5.2% in Splendora — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#911 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Splendora ISD (rural): math 25% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #648 of 826 in TX (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 542 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 212 days — a 12% lower offer ($106k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.8% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $105,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 212 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.61% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.83%
• DSCR: 1.75
• GRM: 5.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $254,962
• List price: $120,000
• Delta: -52.93%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.32×
• Total profit: $10,738
• Equity at exit: $17,892

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.45×
• Total profit: $48,684
• Equity at exit: $10,375

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77372

• Home prices YoY: -2.1%
• Active inventory: 542
• Price-to-rent: 5.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,934 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$377 /mo · $4,523/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$406
• Net cashflow: $471

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,337

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 71%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
26471 Joy Village Dr Splendora, TX	2.0	2.0	1050	$1,350	$1.29	21d	1	1.40mi
25687 Roy Rogers Ct Splendora, TX	4.0	3.0	1607	$1,895	$1.18	4d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $120,000 Active 212 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $120,000 Active 211 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $120,000 Active 210 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $120,000 Active 209 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $120,000 Active 207 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $120,000 Active 206 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $230,000 Active 203 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $230,000 Active 202 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $230,000 Active 201 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $230,000 Active 198 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $230,000 Active 197 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $230,000 Active 196 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $230,000 Active 195 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $230,000 Active 194 DOM
15. 2026-03-17
    price $235,000 812-char remark

    Show marketing remark (812 chars)

    Experience peaceful country living on over half an acre of unrestricted land with low taxes and no HOA! This brand-new 2024 manufactured home has never been lived in and features 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, beautiful laminate floors, and an island kitchen with natural cabinetry and stainless-steel appliances. The spacious primary suite offers a double-sink vanity, large walk-in closet, separate shower, and relaxing soaking tub. Enjoy a covered back patio plus a versatile two-story workshop/shed perfect for storage, hobbies, or an office. With plenty of open land, you have the freedom to create the lifestyle you want. Located just 10 minutes from Hwy 59, you’ll have quick access to shopping, dining, and more. Don’t miss this amazing chance to own a brand-new home on generous land at a great price!

16. 2026-01-05
    price $245,000 812-char remark

    Show marketing remark (812 chars)

    Experience peaceful country living on over half an acre of unrestricted land with low taxes and no HOA! This brand-new 2024 manufactured home has never been lived in and features 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, beautiful laminate floors, and an island kitchen with natural cabinetry and stainless-steel appliances. The spacious primary suite offers a double-sink vanity, large walk-in closet, separate shower, and relaxing soaking tub. Enjoy a covered back patio plus a versatile two-story workshop/shed perfect for storage, hobbies, or an office. With plenty of open land, you have the freedom to create the lifestyle you want. Located just 10 minutes from Hwy 59, you’ll have quick access to shopping, dining, and more. Don’t miss this amazing chance to own a brand-new home on generous land at a great price!

17. 2025-11-18
    listed $250,000 Active 812-char remark

    Show marketing remark (812 chars)

    Experience peaceful country living on over half an acre of unrestricted land with low taxes and no HOA! This brand-new 2024 manufactured home has never been lived in and features 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, beautiful laminate floors, and an island kitchen with natural cabinetry and stainless-steel appliances. The spacious primary suite offers a double-sink vanity, large walk-in closet, separate shower, and relaxing soaking tub. Enjoy a covered back patio plus a versatile two-story workshop/shed perfect for storage, hobbies, or an office. With plenty of open land, you have the freedom to create the lifestyle you want. Located just 10 minutes from Hwy 59, you’ll have quick access to shopping, dining, and more. Don’t miss this amazing chance to own a brand-new home on generous land at a great price!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,523 · $377/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,523 · $377/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,202
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$4,523
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,856
• − Management: −$1,856
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable income: $4,154
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$997
• After-tax cash flow: $4,658/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This brand-new 2024 manufactured home is move-in ready with no repairs or maintenance needed, offering a perfect blend of modern amenities and serene country living.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal — Enhances both resale and rental value.
• Resale Interior paint touch-ups — Maintains a fresh and inviting appearance.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal — Enhances both resale and rental value. ↑
• Resale Interior paint touch-ups — Maintains a fresh and inviting appearance. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Splendora ISD
• NCES district ID: 4841070
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $54,166
• Composite: 24.92/100
• National rank: #7572
• State rank: #648 of 826 in TX

Livability — Splendora

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #911
• US rank: #16335

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 14,367
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 14,367
• Household income: $79,085
• Rent vs Own: 18.7% rent · 81.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 135.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (61%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 36% Two or more races 9% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 32%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 28%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -6.47%
• Current HPI: 306.9962
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-6.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-17 Price Changed $235,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-05 Price Changed $245,000 HARMLS
• 2025-11-18 Listed $250,000 HARMLS